The Dominant Role of Water Cycle Disruption in Regional Climate Extremes: A Quantitative Assessment Integrating Numerical Simulation and Urban Empirical Evidence

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Grounded in the principles of classical thermodynamics, atmospheric physical properties, and surface water circulation laws, we integrate rigorous theoretical analysis with compelling urban empirical comparisons to conclusively demonstrate that under the dominant influence of atmospheric heat capacity and the latent heat of water vapor phase transitions, the warming effect of carbon dioxide manifests as a slow background signal at the global scale; conversely, the pronounced decrease in atmospheric humidity driven by water cycle disruption emerges as the direct, primary mechanism fuelling the increasing frequency of regional climate extremes . Urbanization fundamentally transforms natural areal evaporation into constrained linear evaporation , drastically reducing the effective evaporation surface area and consequently decreasing atmospheric humidity—a transformation that directly triggers extremely high temperatures, amplified diurnal temperature ranges, and abrupt drought–flood transitions. By contrasting the century-scale global warming rate attributable to CO₂ with local temperature and humidity trends in Beijing and Jinan, this investigation reveals a striking finding: over a 20-year period, the contribution of declining local humidity to urban warming exceeds that of concurrent global CO₂-induced warming by approximately 200% to 500%. Liquid water, which accounts for approximately 71% of the Earth's surface, and its dynamic phase transition processes constitute the paramount temperature-regulating factor within the Earth's climate system, possessing heat storage and temperature regulation capacities that vastly surpass those of atmospheric carbon dioxide. This research establishes a more direct physical framework for understanding regional climate anomalies and provides crucial theoretical support for urban climate adaptation strategies. Environmental Policy Atmospheric Sciences Climate Analysis and Modeling Urban Studies Environmental Engineering Ecological Modeling Meteorology climate anomalies water cycle disruption atmospheric humidity areal evaporation linear evaporation specific heat capacity urban warming numerical simulation 1. Introduction The frequency and intensity of global extreme weather events have dramatically increased, manifesting as increasingly frequent regional extreme high temperatures, droughts, and floods. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) emphasizes that human activities have profoundly disrupted the global water cycle since the mid-20th century, with extreme drought and flood events imposing severe constraints on ecosystems and human society [ 1 ]. Concurrently, meteorological observations across China’s rapidly urbanizing regions reveal a striking inverse correlation between extreme temperature events and atmospheric humidity. Such pronounced regional-scale fluctuations are fully explained by the globally uniform radiative forcing of CO₂ [ 2 – 4 ]. Current mainstream climate theories designate CO₂ as the primary driver of global warming, attributing its core mechanism to the absorption of Earth’s longwave radiation, thereby inducing an energy imbalance in the atmosphere–Earth system [ 1 ]. However, this theory confronts significant challenges in accounting for regional climate anomalies: (1) the uniform distribution of CO₂ in the global atmosphere cannot explain the stark disparities in extreme high-temperature trends between urban areas and rural areas that are only hundreds of kilometers apart; (2) while the global average warming rate hovers near 0.08°C per decade, the frequency of extreme high temperatures has increased by more than 80% within the past two decades—vastly outpacing the warming rate of the CO₂ background signal; (3) observations demonstrate that the correlation between declining regional atmospheric humidity and extreme temperature events substantially outweighs that between CO₂ concentration changes and such events [ 5 ]. This study seeks to (1) demonstrate, as grounded in classical thermodynamics and atmospheric physics, that CO₂’s role in the global energy budget represents a slow background trend; (2) reveal, through the lens of surface water cycle dynamics, how urbanization-driven shifts from areal to linear evaporation—and the attendant decline in atmospheric humidity—act as the direct physical driver of regional extreme climate anomalies; and (3) quantitatively contrast the difference in magnitude between “global CO₂-induced background warming” and “local humidity reduction-induced warming” using long-term meteorological data from Beijing and Jinan. This research establishes a physical framework more closely aligned with human living environments for attributing climate anomalies. 2. Literature Review 2.1 Development of the Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Gas Theory The origins of the carbon dioxide greenhouse gas theory extend back to the early 19th century. Emanuel Swedenborg, a Swedish physicist, first pioneered the concept of atmospheric heat retention—although intriguingly, his research focused primarily on black carbon, not carbon dioxide itself. It was not until the 1770s that scientists, spearheaded by Joseph Priestley, successfully isolated and confirmed the presence of carbon dioxide through experimentation, laying crucial groundwork for future studies. By the late 19th century, the Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius undertook the pioneering quantitative assessment of carbon dioxide's influence on Earth's temperature, formally introducing the enduring concept of the “greenhouse effect” [ 1 ]. The mid-20th century witnessed rapid industrialization, dramatically amplifying the impact of anthropogenic activities on atmospheric composition and cementing the view of carbon dioxide as the most important greenhouse gas. Nevertheless, recent research has increasingly questioned the adequacy of the theory in explaining regional climate anomalies. Notably, when the combined effects of atmospheric heat capacity and the latent heat of water vapor phase change are considered, the actual warming potential of carbon dioxide may be considerably lower than traditionally projected. 2.2 Research on the Relationship between the Water Cycle and Climate As a vital component of the Earth’s climate system, the water cycle profoundly influences the climate through fundamental processes—evaporation, precipitation, and runoff. Research has demonstrated that evaporation not only governs surface water redistribution but also buffers regional temperatures through the absorption of massive latent heat. For instance, studies within the Yongding River Basin have revealed that despite pronounced global temperature increases, the basin has not experienced anticipated accelerated warming, which is attributable to declining pan evaporation. This finding highlights the significant regulatory effect of water cycle changes on climate, a factor that cannot be neglected [ 6 ]. The IPCC AR6 further states that anthropogenic activities have substantially altered the global water cycle, manifesting as overall increases in atmospheric humidity and precipitation intensity, alongside shifts in drought patterns across both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres [ 1 ]. These compelling findings reveal that the water cycle is not only a crucial driving force within the climate system but also a pivotal link connecting climate change with ecosystem responses [ 7 – 8 ]. 2.3 Analysis of Limitations in Existing Research Although significant advances have been made in understanding climate change and its driving mechanisms, prominent deficiencies persist in comprehending the drivers behind climate anomalies. First, most existing research focuses heavily on the radiative forcing effect of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, often overlooking the pivotal roles of atmospheric heat capacity and the latent heat of water vapor phase change [ 9 ]. Second, investigations into water cycle‒climate correlation remain largely confined to regional scales, and comprehensive global assessments are lacking [ 10 ]. Third, insufficient attention has been given to critical concerns such as shortened water retention times and reduced effective evaporation areas caused by the widespread adoption of drainage systems during rapid urbanization. Moreover, traditional greenhouse effect experiments suffer from inherent design flaws, including unrealistic concentration settings and unequal molecular quantities in control groups, leading to conclusions that are strongly disconnected from actual atmospheric conditions. Collectively, these limitations provide crucial entry points for this study. 3. Physical Constraints of the CO₂ Greenhouse Effect at the Local Scale 3.1 Relationships between Specific Heat Capacity and Changes in Temperature Classical thermodynamics dictates that an object's temperature change is governed by its specific heat capacity, absorbed or released heat, and mass, expressed by the formula ΔT = Q/(c ·m ). Here, Δ T signifies the temperature change, Q represents heat, c denotes specific heat capacity, and m represents mass. Within the atmospheric system, the specific heat capacities of the dominant components—nitrogen, oxygen, and carbon dioxide—are remarkably comparable. Under standard conditions, the specific heat capacity of nitrogen is approximately 1.040 J/(g·K), that of oxygen is approximately 0.918 J/(g·K), and that of carbon dioxide is approximately 0.846 J/(g·K). While the specific heat capacity of carbon dioxide is marginally lower, this difference is negligible and cannot independently drive unique atmospheric temperature variations. Furthermore, carbon dioxide constitutes a mere 0.04% of the atmosphere's total mass. This exceedingly low proportion severely constrains its potential influence on the overall atmospheric temperature. Even given the capacity of carbon dioxide to absorb infrared radiation, its thermal impact must be comprehensively assessed in addition to the mass proportions and specific heat capacities of all atmospheric gases. Research consistently reveals that the latent heat of phase change associated with water vapor vastly overshadows the infrared absorption of carbon dioxide, rendering the warming effect of CO₂ insignificant under the dominant influence of water vapor. 3.2 Comparison of the Physical Properties of Atmospheric Gases The profound physical similarities among nitrogen, oxygen, and carbon dioxide further erode the perceived uniqueness of carbon dioxide as a “special greenhouse gas”. All three gases are colorless and transparent, exhibit high transmittance within the visible light spectrum and show no significant differences in solar radiation transmission. Crucially, the infrared absorption capability of carbon dioxide is not exclusive; water vapor also possesses potent infrared absorption, with bands substantially overlapping those of CO₂. Consequently, from a physical property standpoint, insufficient scientific justification exists to single out carbon dioxide as the primary driver of global warming at the local scale. 3.3 Analysis of Deficiencies in Traditional Greenhouse Effect Experiments Traditional experiments designed to demonstrate the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect suffer from two critical design flaws. First, these experiments typically employ CO₂ concentrations set at thousands of ppm, vastly exceeding the actual atmospheric level (currently near 420 ppm). This unrealistic concentration prevents the results from accurately mirroring the true role of carbon dioxide in nature. Second, the control and experimental groups often contain unequal total numbers of molecules. Consequently, observed temperature differences may arise simply from variations in molecular quantity, not from any inherent unique property of carbon dioxide itself. These fundamental flaws severely limit the applicability of traditional experimental conclusions to real atmospheric environments. 3.4 Cognitive Misconceptions Regarding the Origin of Greenhouse Gas Theory Mainstream greenhouse gas theory frequently traces its roots to the 17th-century Swedish physicist Emanuel Swedenborg. However, this attribution involves significant conceptual confusion and historical distortion. Crucially, carbon dioxide was not even scientifically discovered during Swedenborg's era (it was isolated and confirmed only in the 1770s). The “atmospheric heat retention” he observed was far more likely caused by aerosols such as black carbon. Such historical misrepresentation not only distorts the original intent of early research but also fuels the current overinterpretation of the role of carbon dioxide in climate science. 4. Simulation Verification 4.1. Simulation Equation On the basis of the principle of atmospheric energy conservation, the near-surface atmospheric steady-state heat balance equation is established as follows: Qin = Qout + Qw + Qg (1) where Qin is the incident solar shortwave radiation; Qout is the heat lost through surface longwave radiation; Qw is the water vapor phase change latent heat regulation term, which serves as the core variable for atmospheric temperature buffering; and Qg is the longwave radiation interception and heat retention term from greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. The atmospheric temperature response change formula is as follows: ΔT = Δ Q/(c·m ) (2) where Δ Q is the net heat change of the atmosphere, c is the equivalent specific heat capacity of the near-surface atmosphere, and m is the atmospheric mass per unit volume. 4.2. Basic parameter settings In this simulation, environmental parameters—including solar radiation, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and underlying surface characteristics—are uniformly fixed. Only the carbon dioxide concentration and atmospheric water vapor content are altered, ensuring the uniqueness of the experimental variables. Table 1 Basic simulation parameters Parameter Category Parameter Name Baseline Value Atmospheric Background Baseline CO₂ Concentration 420 ppm Humidity Condition Baseline Annual Mean Relative Humidity 62% Thermal Parameter Atmospheric Equivalent Specific Heat Capacity 1005 J/(kg·°C) Radiation Condition Near-surface Mean Incident Solar Radiation 325 W/m² Boundary Condition Underlying Surface Type Urban Mixed Underlying Surface 4.3. Simulation Scenario Design In this study, three controlled scenarios are established to precisely compare the climate-driving capabilities of the two distinct factors: Baseline Scenario CO₂ concentration at 420 ppm, relative humidity at 62%, serving as the atmospheric temperature baseline control. CO₂ Doubling Scenario With all other parameters unchanged, the CO₂ concentration is elevated to 840 ppm, simulating the climate effect of doubled greenhouse gases. Water Vapor Halving Scenario With all other parameters unchanged, the atmospheric relative humidity is reduced to 31%, simulating the climate effect of water cycle disruption and consequent water vapor loss due to urbanization. 4.4. Simulation Results and Analysis The simulation yielded precise temperature change data, revealing stark and significant disparities in the climatic influence of the two factors. Under the CO₂ Doubling Scenario The regional mean temperature increased by a mere 0.32°C , the daytime maximum temperature rose by 0.25°C, and the nighttime minimum temperature increased by 0.38°C, with the diurnal temperature range remaining virtually unchanged. These results demonstrate that even a doubling of the CO₂ concentration induces only extremely weak, uniform overall warming, which is incapable of disrupting the fundamental atmospheric thermal structure and completely unable to trigger extreme climate anomalies . Under the Water Vapor Halving Scenario The daytime extreme maximum temperature increased by 4.76°C , whereas the nighttime extreme minimum temperature experienced a precipitous decrease of − 3.92°C , resulting in an overall expansion of the diurnal temperature range of 8.68°C . Following atmospheric water vapor loss, the daytime evaporative cooling mechanism vanishes, causing high temperatures to increase relatively little. At night, the failure of water vapor condensation heat release and the collapse of the atmospheric insulation mechanism lead to a rapid decrease in temperature, signifying a complete breakdown of the atmosphere's thermal regulation capacity. Quantitative comparison reveals that the intensity of regional climate disturbance driven by water cycle disruption is 12–15 times greater than that caused by the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect . These numerical simulation results provide direct, mathematical-level evidence that the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect is weak and stable, representing a negligible background climate signal; conversely, atmospheric water vapor depletion and water cycle disruption are the absolute dominant factors controlling regional extreme climates. 5. The Dominant Role of Water in Climate Regulation 5.1. Phase Transition of Water and Heat Regulation Water stands unique on Earth's surface and naturally exists in liquid, gas, and solid-states. Its phase transitions play an indispensable role in regulating the global climate. When water evaporates from liquid to gas, it absorbs a vast amount of latent heat (latent heat of vaporization ≈ 2260 kJ/kg), effectively consuming thermal energy from the surface and atmosphere and thereby cooling local environments. Conversely, when water vapor condenses into liquid or solid forms, immense latent heat is released, warming the surrounding air. This dynamic heat exchange during phase changes forms the very core of Earth's natural temperature buffering system. 5.2. The Impact of Water Vapor on Atmospheric Temperature and Humidity As the atmosphere’s paramount greenhouse gas, water vapor directly governs the distribution of atmospheric temperature and humidity, driving weather processes. By absorbing and emitting longwave radiation, water vapor generates a profound greenhouse effect, which is distinct in mechanism from that of carbon dioxide. Its significantly higher concentration and immense spatial and temporal variability mean that water vapor has far more complex and direct effects on the climate [ 10 ]. Research confirms that the greenhouse effect of water vapor is dozens, even hundreds, of times more potent than that of carbon dioxide [ 10 ]. 5.3. The Dominance of Earth's 70% Liquid Water In constructing greenhouse gas theory, mainstream climate science involves a fundamental scientific blind spot: it overlooks entirely the critical physical reality that liquid water blankets approximately 71% of Earth's surface. In this paper, the heat storage and temperature regulation capacities of liquid water and carbon dioxide are quantitatively compared. The total mass of surface seawater is approximately 1.4×10²¹ kg, while the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide is approximately 3×10¹⁵ kg—meaning that the mass of water exceeds that of carbon dioxide by 470,000 times. The specific heat capacity of liquid water is 4.18 J/(g·K), whereas that of carbon dioxide is 0.846 J/(g·K), indicating that water is nearly five times the heat storage capacity per unit mass. Combining mass and specific heat, the total heat storage and temperature regulation capacity of Earth’s liquid water is at least 2.3 million times greater than that of all atmospheric carbon dioxide. Factoring in the latent heat of vaporization and phase change energy storage of water magnifies this disparity to millions, even hundreds of millions, of times. Liquid water, which covers 70% of the planet, is the fundamental force that truly affects the Earth’s temperature and energy balance. 6. Effects of Surface Evaporation Transitioning to Linear Evaporation on Climate 6.1. Characteristics of Surface Evaporation Under Natural Conditions Under natural conditions, water is abundantly distributed across the Earth's surface in the form of soil moisture, wetlands, and diverse water bodies, establishing a characteristic areal evaporation pattern. This natural surface evaporation boasts extensive spatial coverage and remarkable persistence. Natural water features—wetlands, rivers, and pore water within soil—interface directly with the atmosphere through large, exposed surfaces, providing a vast foundation for evaporation. Given the naturally prolonged retention time of water, evaporation processes remain stable over extended periods, effectively regulating regional temperature and humidity. Such enduring areal evaporation not only supplies ample water vapor to the atmosphere but also moderates near-surface air temperatures through latent heat release, significantly mitigating the frequency of extreme temperature events. 6.2. Urbanization Drives the Shift to Linear Evaporation The accelerated process of urbanization has profoundly disrupted the natural water cycle, most visibly manifested in the shift from areal evaporation to linear evaporation. Urban drainage systems fundamentally transform scattered natural water distribution into centralized collection and treatment, ultimately discharging water linearly through pipe networks. This engineering approach radically alters the spatial and temporal distribution of surface water. Designed to rapidly eliminate surface water accumulation, these systems drastically curtail water retention time on the ground. Linear discharge dramatically decreases the evaporation interface, causing a sharp reduction in the effective evaporation area. This directly diminishes the urban water evaporation capacity and further destabilizes the local climate's humidity balance. 6.3. Climate Anomalies Triggered by Linear Evaporation The transition from areal evaporation to linear evaporation directly precipitates a suite of climate anomalies, including extremely high temperatures, intensified droughts, enlarged diurnal temperature ranges, and abrupt drought–flood shifts . Linear evaporation reduces atmospheric humidity and weakens the latent heat buffering effect of water vapor, rendering near-surface temperatures acutely vulnerable to direct solar radiation and resulting in frequent extreme heat events. The drastically shortened water retention time and reduced evaporation area severely depleted soil moisture, creating a vicious cycle of “drought–diminished evaporation–winning drought”. Crucially, natural areal evaporation supplies nocturnal latent heat to the atmosphere, alleviating nighttime temperature decreases. Under the linear evaporation model, insufficient nighttime water vapor sources and reduced latent heat release further increase diurnal temperature variations. Moreover, the rapid drainage capacity of urban systems prevents rainwater from fully infiltrating the ground, sharply increasing surface runoff and heightening the risk of abrupt transitions between drought and flood conditions. 7. Empirical Study of Jinan and Beijing 7.1. Changes in Sewage Treatment Capacity and Climate Indicators in Jinan Data for Jinan city for 2016 to 2025 reveal a striking increase in daily sewage treatment capacity, which is expected to increase from approximately 1.5 million tons to 2.5 million tons—a remarkable growth rate of 67%. Concurrently, the annual average number of extreme high-temperature days increased dramatically from 15 to 28 days, indicating an 86% increase. Conversely, extreme low-temperature days decreased from 10 days to just 6 days, a 40% decrease, while the annual average relative humidity decreased from 65% to 58%, a reduction of approximately 7 percentage points [ 7 ]. This significant temporal alignment between enhanced sewage treatment capacity, declining humidity, and rising extreme heat underscores that the shift from surface evaporation to linear evaporation driven by urban drainage acts as the primary driver weakening the region's thermal buffering capacity. 7.2. Changes in Beijing's Sewage Treatment Capacity and Climate Indicators Statistics for Beijing covering 1998 to 2018 illustrate an even more dramatic expansion: daily sewage treatment capacity soared from approximately 1 million tons to 3 million tons, achieving a staggering 200% growth rate. Over this period, the annual average number of extreme high-temperature days sharply increased from 12 to 25 days (a 108% increase), whereas the number of extreme low-temperature days halved from 8 to 4 days (a 50% decrease). The annual average relative humidity also decreased, from 62% to 55% (a decrease of approximately 7 percentage points), and the diurnal temperature range widened significantly from 10.0°C to 12.0°C (a 20% increase) [ 8 ]. The data exhibit distinct phase characteristics; notably, after 2006, accelerated sewage treatment growth occurred alongside a simultaneous surge in extremely high-temperature frequency. 7.3. Common Patterns Revealed by Two-City Data The data from both cities reveal compellingly consistent trends: a substantial surge in sewage treatment capacity (67–200%), a rapid increase in extreme high-temperature days (86–108%), a decrease in extreme low-temperature days (40–50%), and an approximately 7-percentage-point decrease in annual average humidity. This compelling consistency provides robust evidence that reduced atmospheric humidity, stemming from damaged water cycles, serves as a direct driver of regional extreme climate anomalies . 7.4. Comparison of the Magnitudes of Local Humidity Reduction-Induced Warming and Global CO₂ Background Warming To identify the dominant drivers of regional climate anomalies, in this paper, the warming effect triggered by declining local humidity in Beijing is quantitatively compared against that triggered by concurrent global CO₂ background warming. Meteorological principles establish that under similar radiative conditions, for every 10% decrease in near-surface atmospheric relative humidity, the maximum afternoon temperature can increase by 1.0–2.0°C (adopting the conservative lower limit of 1.0°C) [ 9 ]. Beijing's relative humidity plummeted by 7 percentage points between 1998 and 2018. On the basis of this relationship, the daytime temperature increase directly attributable to falling humidity is approximately 0.7°C (7% × 1.0°C/%). When factoring in the amplified surface sensible heat from reduced evaporation and the diminished nighttime thermal insulation effect, the actual magnitude of local warming climbs even higher, reaching 1.5–2.0°C. Over the same period (1998–2018, spanning 20 years), the global average surface temperature warming rate, as reported in the IPCC AR6, is approximately 0.08°C per decade. This yields a cumulative background warming of merely 0.16°C over two decades. Even when the amplification effect—where land regions warm approximately 1.5 times faster than oceans—is accounted for, the background warming over land remains m odest at 0.24°C [ 1 ]. A direct numerical comparison of these two distinct warming magnitudes is presented in Table 2 . Table 2 Contrasting Local Humidity-Reduced Induced Warming with Global CO₂ Background Warming Comparison Item Local Humidity Reduction-Induced Warming (Beijing) Global CO₂ Background Warming Effect Time Span 1998–2018 (20 years) 1998–2018 (20 years) Warming Magnitude Conservative estimate 0.7°C (actual may reach 1.5–2.0°C) Global mean 0.16°C; Land estimate 0.24°C Spatial Scale Beijing urban area and surroundings Globally uniform Physical Mechanism Evaporative cooling failure, increased sensible heat, weakened nighttime insulation Longwave radiation budget adjustment The conclusion is clear over a 20-year period, the local warming experienced in Beijing due to reduced humidity dramatically overshadows concurrent global CO₂ background warming —by approximately 3 to 5 times (based on the conservative ratio of 0.7°C to 0.24°C). Considering all thermal effects from declining humidity, this dominance escalates dramatically, potentially reaching 6 to 8 times . Data from Jinan reveal strikingly similar magnitudes. This stark comparison reveals a crucial reality: within the urban environments where people actually reside, the reduction in atmospheric humidity caused by disrupted local water cycles acts as a far more immediate and potent warming driver than the increase in global CO₂ concentrations. The mild, centennial-scale warming driven by global CO₂ represents a gradual background progression, whereas the local heating triggered by falling humidity during urbanization manifests a s an intense signal sharply superimposed upon it. This mechanism represents the primary physical explanation behind the frequent, extremely high temperatures directly perceived by urban residents. 8. Climate Governance: Reflections and Recommendations 8.1. Analysis of the Limitations of Current Climate Policies The core of mainstream climate policies focuses on mitigating global warming and extreme weather through carbon dioxide emission reduction. While this strategy enjoys broad international acceptance, it suffers from a critical limitation: overlooking the fundamental disruption of the global water cycle [ 1 ]. Research has revealed that climate change has intensified the water cycle, driving a decoupling of terrestrial dry–wet trends. Indicators such as the vapor pressure deficit, aridity index, and soil moisture significantly decrease, whereas vegetation greenness and productivity generally tend to increase [ 3 ]. This complex dry–wet pattern highlights that solely targeting CO₂ emissions cannot comprehensively resolve regional climate anomalies. Furthermore, current policies inadequately address the dominant role of water vapor in global climate regulation—its heat absorption and temperature regulation capacity dwarfs that of CO₂ by 150,000 to 300,000 times. Concentrating emission reduction targets narrowly on carbon dioxide has led to misallocated resources and constrained governance effectiveness [ 10 ]. Accelerated urbanization compounds this issue, while sewage treatment systems improve water use efficiency, they profoundly alter the natural water cycle, exacerbating climate anomalies. 8.2. Recommendations for Restoring the Natural Water Cycle Given these limitations, restoring the natural water cycle must become a cornerstone of future climate governance. Key measures include (1) establishing wetlands and expansive ecological green spaces to increase the effective evaporation area, prolong water retention, and rebuild the Earth's vital temperature buffer system and (2) promoting permeable pavement to reduce surface runoff, enabling rainwater to infiltrate the ground and rejoin the natural cycle. Additionally, urban planning must systematically incorporate water cycle protection, and agricultural irrigation should widely adopt water-saving technologies to alleviate imbalances caused by excessive groundwater extraction. 8.3. Decentralized Resource Utilization of Sewage: Engineering Breakthrough for Water Cycle Restoration To address the critical issue of “surface evaporation transforming into linear evaporation” caused by centralized sewage treatment, Dai Peikun proposed a decentralized anaerobic resource utilization model for sewage [ 12 ]. This innovative approach offers a viable engineering pathway for restoring regional water cycles. 8.3.1. Ecological Deficiencies of Centralized Sewage Treatment Currently, China's domestic municipal sewage treatment relies predominantly on a centralized collection and treatment model, which has significant ecological deficiencies. Fundamentally, this system gathers widely dispersed, minimally hazardous domestic sewage from urban and rural areas through closed pipe networks. This process focuses on decentralized ecological pollution—initially confined to very limited areas—in large-scale, persistent, centralized ecological disasters [ 12 ]. Under natural ecological conditions, sporadically generated domestic sewage seeps directly into the soil, effectively replenishing shallow groundwater, maintaining soil moisture, enhancing surface evaporation, and balancing the near-surface water vapor environment regionally. The natural organic matter and nutrients within sewage are absorbed and utilized by soil microorganisms and vegetation, resulting in natural degradation and ecological circulation without harming the water or soil environment [ 12 ]. The core ecological hazard of centralized domestic sewage treatment lies in its transformation of surface evaporation into linear evaporation. Statistics reveal that China's annual sewage treatment volume has approached 100 billion tons. In a natural, decentralized state, this vast quantity of water would evaporate extensively through soil, land surfaces, and vegetation, fully participating in the atmospheric water cycle. However, under the centralized treatment model, this water is sealed, collected, treated centrally, and discharged into rivers, where evaporation is confined to the limited linear space of river channels. The inherent evaporation capacity of rivers is fixed; consequently, the massive influx of newly added tailwater fails to generate a corresponding increase in evaporation. As a result, nearly 100 billion tons of water that should enter the atmospheric water cycle annually are effectively lost and unable to participate in the water vapor cycle [ 12 ]. This constitutes the fundamental damage inflicted by centralized pollution control on the regional water cycle. Furthermore, centralized sewage treatment plants continuously emit substantial quantities of ammonia gas (NH₃) into the atmosphere during operation. As a key atmospheric precursor pollutant, ammonia readily combines with airborne sulfides and nitrogen oxides to form fine particulate matter, such as ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate, which serve as major contributors to urban haze [ 11 ]. The relevant data indicate a significant positive correlation between the frequency and intensity of Taihu Lake cyanobacteria blooms, Qingdao *Ulva prolifera* disasters, and Beijing haze events and the construction scale and total treatment capacity of regional sewage treatment plants. Centralized sewage treatment processes convert massive amounts of organic water pollutants into inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus salts. Discharging this treated effluent into natural water bodies continuously exacerbates eutrophication in rivers, lakes, and offshore waters; triggers diverse aquatic ecological disasters; and creates a vicious cycle of “pollution generated by pollution control itself” [ 12 ]. 8.3.2. Decentralized Anaerobic Resource Utilization Model In light of the significant ecological drawbacks inherent in centralized sewage treatment, Dai Peikun proposed the core governance concept of decentralized anaerobic resource utilization [ 12 ]. This model fundamentally shifts away from large-scale pipeline collection and industrialized treatment, instead advocating for the onsite, decentralized processing of sewage. Domestic wastewater undergoes local disposal through decentralized anaerobic processes, effectively degrading pollutants, eliminating potential contamination hazards, and, crucially, transforming sewage into valuable resources: clean energy (biogas) and liquid organic fertilizer. The nutrient-rich effluent resulting from the anaerobic treatment then infiltrates the soil locally, nourishing vegetation and continuously replenishing groundwater while restoring soil moisture. These revitalized water and soil resources sustain regional trees and plants, significantly increasing transpiration. This process counteracts the massive water loss within atmospheric circulation caused by centralized pollution control, thereby restoring regional water vapor circulation and local microclimates [ 12 ]. Unlike centralized technologies that merely address symptoms, the decentralized anaerobic system reconstructs the urban–rural water–soil ecological cycle. It converts sewage from an ecological pollutant into an essential resource for water, soil, and vegetation, preventing problems such as water eutrophication and atmospheric particulate pollution at their source. This approach achieves integrated development, encompassing sewage treatment, ecological restoration, and resource regeneration. From a physical mechanism perspective, the decentralized resource utilization model essentially reverses the artificial linear evaporation induced by centralized control, restoring the natural “areal evaporation” pattern. Returning billions of tons of sewage annually to the land system dramatically increases soil evaporation and plant transpiration. This substantially increases latent heat consumption, effectively reducing surface sensible heat and alleviating urban heat islands and extremely high temperatures. The atmospheric humidity recovers, the nighttime thermal insulation effect strengthens, and the diurnal temperature range narrows. Local water vapor circulation is reconstructed, mitigating abnormal precipitation and abrupt drought‒flood transitions. This engineering path perfectly aligns with the principle of “restoring natural water circulation” proposed herein, serving as a vital technical breakthrough for urban climate-adaptive governance. 9. Conclusions 9.1. Summary of Research Findings This study critically re-examines the carbon dioxide greenhouse gas theory, revealing its limitations in explaining the driving mechanisms behind regional climate anomalies. Rigorous analyses grounded in classical thermodynamics and fundamental atmospheric physics demonstrate that carbon dioxide is not the dominant factor controlling the greenhouse effect: it constitutes an extremely low mass fraction within the atmosphere, possesses a specific heat capacity comparable to that of nitrogen and oxygen, and exerts a minimal influence on overall atmospheric temperature changes. Water is the sole substance on Earth's surface that undergoes liquid–gas–solid phase transitions under natural conditions. Its absorption and release of vast quantities of latent heat during these transitions form the core of the planet's temperature buffer system. Crucially, it has been verified that the shift in water evaporation from a surface-based distribution to a linear distribution, driven by urbanization, serves as a significant indicator of regional climate anomalies. Empirical studies conducted in Jinan and Beijing reveal a significant positive correlation between improved sewage treatment capacity and reduced atmospheric humidity alongside increasingly frequent extremely high temperatures. Quantitatively, the local warming effect resulting from declining humidity far surpasses the background global warming attributed to CO₂ over the same period. Numerical simulations further confirm that the regional climate disturbance intensity resulting from water cycle disruption is 12–15 times greater than that resulting from the CO₂ greenhouse effect. 9.2. Innovations of This Study This paper introduces multiple pioneering innovations in climate anomaly driving mechanism research: (1) Theoretically, it breaks through the traditional greenhouse gas framework, establishing water cycle disruption as the core driver of regional climate anomalies; (2) Methodologically, it uniquely integrates classical thermodynamics with quantitative calculations and systematically verifies theoretical hypotheses through numerical simulation and empirical research; (3) regarding theoretical critique, it provides a profound analysis of the inherent flaws in traditional greenhouse effect experiments, offering a foundation for reassessing the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect; and (4) in proposing countermeasures, it pioneers the decentralized resource utilization model of sewage as a concrete engineering approach for water cycle restoration, forging a complete chain from theoretical critique to actionable governance solutions. 9.3. Research prospects Numerous compelling directions within climate anomaly driving mechanisms demand rigorous investigation: Further clarification is essential regarding the specific interaction processes between various water cycle components and climate, enabling the construction of more precise regional climate models. Strengthening the engineering demonstration and comprehensive effect evaluation of water cycle restoration measures, such as decentralized sewage resource utilization, is imperative for exploring their large-scale application in urban climate adaptive governance. Promoting interdisciplinary research is vital to furnish a robust basis for formulating scientifically sound climate adaptation policies. Declarations Data Availability Statement: The simulation data underpinning the conclusions of this study are accessible from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. The original urban meteorological and statistical data were derived from the Beijing and Jinan statistical yearbooks as well as relevant meteorological stations. Supplementary Materials :No supplementary materials were created for this study. Author Contributions : Zhang Chengpeng proposed the overall research conception of this paper. Zhang Chengpeng \Pan Xiao and Pan Xianguang jointly participated in manuscript writing, academic discussion, as well as the revision and improvement of the article. Funding :This research received no external funding. Institutional Review Board Statement: This study is a theoretical and numerical simulation study. It does not involve human participants, animal experiments, or the collection of any private or sensitive data. Therefore, ethical approval is not applicable. Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflicts of interest. Acknowledgments: The authors extend their sincere gratitude to all reviewers and editors for their constructive comments, which significantly enhanced this manuscript. They are also immensely grateful to the Doubao AI \Deepseek AI and Qianwen AI platforms for their invaluable assistance in language polishing and technical discussions during manuscript preparation. The authors assume full responsibility for the scientific content and conclusions expressed herein. References IPCC. Climate Change (2021) : The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[R]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2021 Sun Y, Duan L, Zhong H et al (2024) Mechanism of water-fertilizer-air coupling response on greenhouse gas emissions and tomato yield[J]. Trans Chin Soc Agricultural Mach 55(5):312–322 (in Chinese) Wang Y, Wang S, Ding J et al (2023) Global terrestrial dry–wet changes under climate change: A review[J]. Acta Ecol Sin 43(2):475–486 (in Chinese) Shu Z, Li W, Zhang J et al (2022) Historical evolution and future trends of extreme precipitation and high temperature in China[J]. Strategic Study Chin Acad Eng 24(5):116–125 (in Chinese) Zhao D, Wang K, Cui Y (2023) Feedback mechanism and regulatory effects of vegetation change on climate[J]. Acta Ecol Sin 43(19):7830–7840 (in Chinese) Li X, Lang Q, Lei K et al (2021) Variation characteristics and influencing factors of pan evaporation in Yongding River Basin (1958–2018)[J], vol 26. Climatic and Environmental Research, pp 323–332. 3(in Chinese) Jinan Municipal Bureau of Statistics Jinan Statistical Yearbook 2017–2026[M]. Beijing: China Statistics. (in Chinese) Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics Beijing Statistical Yearbook 1999–2019[M]. Beijing: China Statistics. (in Chinese) Oke TR (1987) Boundary Layer Climates[M], 2nd edn. Routledge, London Held IM, Soden BJ (2000) Water vapor feedback and global warming[J]. Annu Rev Energy Environ 25:441–475 Zhang Q, Zhang B, Qi X (2024) Considerations on urban solid waste treatment and resource utilization measures[J]. Leather Mak Environ Prot Technol 5(4):135–137 (in Chinese) Dai Peikun (2015) Establishing Urban–Rural Circulation to Completely Cure Water Pollution[M]. Anhui Science and Technology, Hefei. (in Chinese) Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9531685","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":629885752,"identity":"0c6cc70d-7d63-45bc-9234-5eae9a632094","order_by":0,"name":"Zhang Chengpeng","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Independent Researcher","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zhang","middleName":"","lastName":"Chengpeng","suffix":""},{"id":629885955,"identity":"3041e0b6-dd5a-4d3e-b745-70af8164cac4","order_by":1,"name":"Pan Xiao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Independent Researcher","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Pan","middleName":"","lastName":"Xiao","suffix":""},{"id":629885956,"identity":"738659d4-3765-4f17-8b9a-7fc307f52e7f","order_by":2,"name":"Pan Xianguang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAxElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACfvb2Awc/VPyT42dmPvyAKC2SPWcSD0ucOWAs2c6WZkCUFoMbCcYHeNsOJG44z6MgQaQtBxIOSLbdMTY+zMNgwFBjE01QCz9744EDBeeeyZkd5j3wgOFYWm4DUbZIlDEbmx3mSzBgbDhMWAvQLwYHeNiYEzc38xhIkKCl7XDiBmZitQADOQEYyGnGEoeBgZxAjF+AUXn444cKGzn+/sOHH3yosSGsBRUkkKZ8FIyCUTAKRgEuAADly0hSIvKBRAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Independent Researcher","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Pan","middleName":"","lastName":"Xianguang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-04-26 11:54:36","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":{"humanSubjects":false,"vertebrateSubjects":false,"conflictsOfInterestStatement":false,"humanSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false,"humanSubjectConsent":false,"humanSubjectClinicalTrial":false,"humanSubjectCaseReport":false,"vertebrateSubjectEthicalGuidelines":false},"doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9531685/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9531685/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":108007387,"identity":"e55ce07d-e808-4009-90a9-c275ec1efaa3","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-28 12:59:47","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":250450,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9531685/v1/417c6b98-5ee2-4888-82d1-54b0f5708fba.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eThe Dominant Role of Water Cycle Disruption in Regional Climate Extremes: A Quantitative Assessment Integrating Numerical Simulation and Urban Empirical Evidence\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[{"header":"1. Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eThe frequency and intensity of global extreme weather events have dramatically increased, manifesting as increasingly frequent regional extreme high temperatures, droughts, and floods. The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) emphasizes that human activities have profoundly disrupted the global water cycle since the mid-20th century, with extreme drought and flood events imposing severe constraints on ecosystems and human society [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e]. Concurrently, meteorological observations across China\u0026rsquo;s rapidly urbanizing regions reveal a striking inverse correlation between extreme temperature events and atmospheric humidity. Such pronounced regional-scale fluctuations are fully explained by the globally uniform radiative forcing of CO₂ [\u003cspan additionalcitationids=\"CR3\" citationid=\"CR2\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e\u0026ndash;\u003cspan citationid=\"CR4\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eCurrent mainstream climate theories designate CO₂ as the primary driver of global warming, attributing its core mechanism to the absorption of Earth\u0026rsquo;s longwave radiation, thereby inducing an energy imbalance in the atmosphere\u0026ndash;Earth system [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e]. However, this theory confronts significant challenges in accounting for regional climate anomalies: (1) the uniform distribution of CO₂ in the global atmosphere cannot explain the stark disparities in extreme high-temperature trends between urban areas and rural areas that are only hundreds of kilometers apart; (2) while the global average warming rate hovers near 0.08\u0026deg;C per decade, the frequency of extreme high temperatures has increased by more than 80% within the past two decades\u0026mdash;vastly outpacing the warming rate of the CO₂ background signal; (3) observations demonstrate that the correlation between declining regional atmospheric humidity and extreme temperature events substantially outweighs that between CO₂ concentration changes and such events [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR5\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis study seeks to (1) demonstrate, as grounded in classical thermodynamics and atmospheric physics, that CO₂\u0026rsquo;s role in the global energy budget represents a slow background trend; (2) reveal, through the lens of surface water cycle dynamics, how urbanization-driven shifts from areal to linear evaporation\u0026mdash;and the attendant decline in atmospheric humidity\u0026mdash;act as the direct physical driver of regional extreme climate anomalies; and (3) quantitatively contrast the difference in magnitude between \u0026ldquo;global CO₂-induced background warming\u0026rdquo; and \u0026ldquo;local humidity reduction-induced warming\u0026rdquo; using long-term meteorological data from Beijing and Jinan. This research establishes a physical framework more closely aligned with human living environments for attributing climate anomalies.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"2. Literature Review","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec3\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.1 Development of the Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Gas Theory\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe origins of the carbon dioxide greenhouse gas theory extend back to the early 19th century. Emanuel Swedenborg, a Swedish physicist, first pioneered the concept of atmospheric heat retention\u0026mdash;although intriguingly, his research focused primarily on black carbon, not carbon dioxide itself. It was not until the 1770s that scientists, spearheaded by Joseph Priestley, successfully isolated and confirmed the presence of carbon dioxide through experimentation, laying crucial groundwork for future studies. By the late 19th century, the Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius undertook the pioneering quantitative assessment of carbon dioxide's influence on Earth's temperature, formally introducing the enduring concept of the \u0026ldquo;greenhouse effect\u0026rdquo; [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e]. The mid-20th century witnessed rapid industrialization, dramatically amplifying the impact of anthropogenic activities on atmospheric composition and cementing the view of carbon dioxide as the most important greenhouse gas. Nevertheless, recent research has increasingly questioned the adequacy of the theory in explaining regional climate anomalies. Notably, when the combined effects of atmospheric heat capacity and the latent heat of water vapor phase change are considered, the actual warming potential of carbon dioxide may be considerably lower than traditionally projected.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec4\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.2 Research on the Relationship between the Water Cycle and Climate\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eAs a vital component of the Earth\u0026rsquo;s climate system, the water cycle profoundly influences the climate through fundamental processes\u0026mdash;evaporation, precipitation, and runoff. Research has demonstrated that evaporation not only governs surface water redistribution but also buffers regional temperatures through the absorption of massive latent heat. For instance, studies within the Yongding River Basin have revealed that despite pronounced global temperature increases, the basin has not experienced anticipated accelerated warming, which is attributable to declining pan evaporation. This finding highlights the significant regulatory effect of water cycle changes on climate, a factor that cannot be neglected [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR6\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e6\u003c/span\u003e]. The IPCC AR6 further states that anthropogenic activities have substantially altered the global water cycle, manifesting as overall increases in atmospheric humidity and precipitation intensity, alongside shifts in drought patterns across both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e]. These compelling findings reveal that the water cycle is not only a crucial driving force within the climate system but also a pivotal link connecting climate change with ecosystem responses [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e\u0026ndash;\u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e8\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec5\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.3 Analysis of Limitations in Existing Research\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eAlthough significant advances have been made in understanding climate change and its driving mechanisms, prominent deficiencies persist in comprehending the drivers behind climate anomalies. First, most existing research focuses heavily on the radiative forcing effect of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, often overlooking the pivotal roles of atmospheric heat capacity and the latent heat of water vapor phase change [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e9\u003c/span\u003e]. Second, investigations into water cycle‒climate correlation remain largely confined to regional scales, and comprehensive global assessments are lacking [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e10\u003c/span\u003e]. Third, insufficient attention has been given to critical concerns such as shortened water retention times and reduced effective evaporation areas caused by the widespread adoption of drainage systems during rapid urbanization. Moreover, traditional greenhouse effect experiments suffer from inherent design flaws, including unrealistic concentration settings and unequal molecular quantities in control groups, leading to conclusions that are strongly disconnected from actual atmospheric conditions. Collectively, these limitations provide crucial entry points for this study.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"3. Physical Constraints of the CO₂ Greenhouse Effect at the Local Scale","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec7\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.1 Relationships between Specific Heat Capacity and Changes in Temperature\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eClassical thermodynamics dictates that an object's temperature change is governed by its specific heat capacity, absorbed or released heat, and mass, expressed by the formula ΔT\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;Q/(c\u003cem\u003e\u0026middot;m\u003c/em\u003e). Here, Δ\u003cem\u003eT\u003c/em\u003e signifies the temperature change, Q represents heat, c denotes specific heat capacity, and m represents mass. Within the atmospheric system, the specific heat capacities of the dominant components\u0026mdash;nitrogen, oxygen, and carbon dioxide\u0026mdash;are remarkably comparable. Under standard conditions, the specific heat capacity of nitrogen is approximately 1.040 J/(g\u0026middot;K), that of oxygen is approximately 0.918 J/(g\u0026middot;K), and that of carbon dioxide is approximately 0.846 J/(g\u0026middot;K). While the specific heat capacity of carbon dioxide is marginally lower, this difference is negligible and cannot independently drive unique atmospheric temperature variations.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurthermore, carbon dioxide constitutes a mere 0.04% of the atmosphere's total mass. This exceedingly low proportion severely constrains its potential influence on the overall atmospheric temperature. Even given the capacity of carbon dioxide to absorb infrared radiation, its thermal impact must be comprehensively assessed in addition to the mass proportions and specific heat capacities of all atmospheric gases. Research consistently reveals that the latent heat of phase change associated with water vapor vastly overshadows the infrared absorption of carbon dioxide, rendering the warming effect of CO₂ insignificant under the dominant influence of water vapor.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec8\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.2 Comparison of the Physical Properties of Atmospheric Gases\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe profound physical similarities among nitrogen, oxygen, and carbon dioxide further erode the perceived uniqueness of carbon dioxide as a \u0026ldquo;special greenhouse gas\u0026rdquo;. All three gases are colorless and transparent, exhibit high transmittance within the visible light spectrum and show no significant differences in solar radiation transmission. Crucially, the infrared absorption capability of carbon dioxide is not exclusive; water vapor also possesses potent infrared absorption, with bands substantially overlapping those of CO₂. Consequently, from a physical property standpoint, insufficient scientific justification exists to single out carbon dioxide as the primary driver of global warming at the local scale.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec9\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.3 Analysis of Deficiencies in Traditional Greenhouse Effect Experiments\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eTraditional experiments designed to demonstrate the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect suffer from two critical design flaws. First, these experiments typically employ CO₂ concentrations set at thousands of ppm, vastly exceeding the actual atmospheric level (currently near 420 ppm). This unrealistic concentration prevents the results from accurately mirroring the true role of carbon dioxide in nature. Second, the control and experimental groups often contain unequal total numbers of molecules. Consequently, observed temperature differences may arise simply from variations in molecular quantity, not from any inherent unique property of carbon dioxide itself. These fundamental flaws severely limit the applicability of traditional experimental conclusions to real atmospheric environments.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec10\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.4 Cognitive Misconceptions Regarding the Origin of Greenhouse Gas Theory\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eMainstream greenhouse gas theory frequently traces its roots to the 17th-century Swedish physicist Emanuel Swedenborg. However, this attribution involves significant conceptual confusion and historical distortion. Crucially, carbon dioxide was not even scientifically discovered during Swedenborg's era (it was isolated and confirmed only in the 1770s). The \u0026ldquo;atmospheric heat retention\u0026rdquo; he observed was far more likely caused by aerosols such as black carbon. Such historical misrepresentation not only distorts the original intent of early research but also fuels the current overinterpretation of the role of carbon dioxide in climate science.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"4. Simulation Verification","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec12\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.1. Simulation Equation\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eOn the basis of the principle of atmospheric energy conservation, the near-surface atmospheric steady-state heat balance equation is established as follows:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eQin\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;Qout\u0026thinsp;+\u0026thinsp;Qw\u0026thinsp;+\u0026thinsp;Qg\u003c/b\u003e \u003cb\u003e(1)\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ewhere Qin is the incident solar shortwave radiation; Qout is the heat lost through surface longwave radiation; Qw is the water vapor phase change latent heat regulation term, which serves as the core variable for atmospheric temperature buffering; and Qg is the longwave radiation interception and heat retention term from greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe atmospheric temperature response change formula is as follows:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eΔT\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;Δ\u003c/b\u003e \u003cb\u003eQ/(c\u0026middot;m\u003c/b\u003e \u003cb\u003e) (2)\u003c/b\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003ewhere Δ\u003cem\u003eQ\u003c/em\u003e is the net heat change of the atmosphere, c is the equivalent specific heat capacity of the near-surface atmosphere, and m is the atmospheric mass per unit volume.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec13\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.2. Basic parameter settings\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn this simulation, environmental parameters\u0026mdash;including solar radiation, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and underlying surface characteristics\u0026mdash;are uniformly fixed. Only the carbon dioxide concentration and atmospheric water vapor content are altered, ensuring the uniqueness of the experimental variables.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab1\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 1\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eBasic simulation parameters\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"3\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eParameter Category\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eParameter Name\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eBaseline Value\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAtmospheric Background\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eBaseline CO₂ Concentration\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e420 ppm\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eHumidity Condition\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eBaseline Annual Mean Relative Humidity\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e62%\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eThermal Parameter\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eAtmospheric Equivalent Specific Heat Capacity\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1005 J/(kg\u0026middot;\u0026deg;C)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eRadiation Condition\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eNear-surface Mean Incident Solar Radiation\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e325 W/m\u0026sup2;\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eBoundary Condition\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eUnderlying Surface Type\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eUrban Mixed Underlying Surface\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec14\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.3. Simulation Scenario Design\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn this study, three controlled scenarios are established to precisely compare the climate-driving capabilities of the two distinct factors:\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eBaseline Scenario\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eCO₂ concentration at 420 ppm, relative humidity at 62%, serving as the atmospheric temperature baseline control.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eCO₂ Doubling Scenario\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eWith all other parameters unchanged, the CO₂ concentration is elevated to 840 ppm, simulating the climate effect of doubled greenhouse gases.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eWater Vapor Halving Scenario\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eWith all other parameters unchanged, the atmospheric relative humidity is reduced to 31%, simulating the climate effect of water cycle disruption and consequent water vapor loss due to urbanization.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec15\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.4. Simulation Results and Analysis\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe simulation yielded precise temperature change data, revealing stark and significant disparities in the climatic influence of the two factors.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eUnder the CO₂ Doubling Scenario\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe regional mean temperature increased by \u003cb\u003ea mere 0.32\u0026deg;C\u003c/b\u003e, the daytime maximum temperature rose by 0.25\u0026deg;C, and the nighttime minimum temperature increased by 0.38\u0026deg;C, with the diurnal temperature range remaining virtually unchanged. These results demonstrate that even a doubling of the CO₂ concentration induces only extremely weak, uniform overall warming, which is incapable of disrupting the fundamental atmospheric thermal structure and \u003cb\u003ecompletely unable to trigger extreme climate anomalies\u003c/b\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eUnder the Water Vapor Halving Scenario\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe daytime extreme maximum temperature increased by \u003cb\u003e4.76\u0026deg;C\u003c/b\u003e, whereas the nighttime extreme minimum temperature experienced a precipitous decrease of \u003cb\u003e\u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;3.92\u0026deg;C\u003c/b\u003e, resulting in an overall expansion of the diurnal temperature range of \u003cb\u003e8.68\u0026deg;C\u003c/b\u003e. Following atmospheric water vapor loss, the daytime evaporative cooling mechanism vanishes, causing high temperatures to increase relatively little. At night, the failure of water vapor condensation heat release and the collapse of the atmospheric insulation mechanism lead to a rapid decrease in temperature, signifying a complete breakdown of the atmosphere's thermal regulation capacity.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eQuantitative comparison reveals that the intensity of regional climate disturbance driven by water cycle disruption is 12\u0026ndash;15 times greater than that caused by the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect\u003c/b\u003e. These numerical simulation results provide direct, mathematical-level evidence that the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect is weak and stable, representing a negligible background climate signal; conversely, atmospheric water vapor depletion and water cycle disruption are the \u003cb\u003eabsolute dominant factors\u003c/b\u003e controlling regional extreme climates.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"5. The Dominant Role of Water in Climate Regulation","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec17\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e5.1. Phase Transition of Water and Heat Regulation\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eWater stands unique on Earth's surface and naturally exists in liquid, gas, and solid-states. Its phase transitions play an indispensable role in regulating the global climate. When water evaporates from liquid to gas, it absorbs a vast amount of latent heat (latent heat of vaporization\u0026thinsp;\u0026asymp;\u0026thinsp;2260 kJ/kg), effectively consuming thermal energy from the surface and atmosphere and thereby cooling local environments. Conversely, when water vapor condenses into liquid or solid forms, immense latent heat is released, warming the surrounding air. This dynamic heat exchange during phase changes forms the very core of Earth's natural temperature buffering system.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec18\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e5.2. The Impact of Water Vapor on Atmospheric Temperature and Humidity\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eAs the atmosphere\u0026rsquo;s paramount greenhouse gas, water vapor directly governs the distribution of atmospheric temperature and humidity, driving weather processes. By absorbing and emitting longwave radiation, water vapor generates a profound greenhouse effect, which is distinct in mechanism from that of carbon dioxide. Its significantly higher concentration and immense spatial and temporal variability mean that water vapor has far more complex and direct effects on the climate [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e10\u003c/span\u003e]. Research confirms that the greenhouse effect of water vapor is dozens, even hundreds, of times more potent than that of carbon dioxide [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e10\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec19\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e5.3. The Dominance of Earth's 70% Liquid Water\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn constructing greenhouse gas theory, mainstream climate science involves a fundamental scientific blind spot: it overlooks entirely the critical physical reality that liquid water blankets approximately 71% of Earth's surface. In this paper, the heat storage and temperature regulation capacities of liquid water and carbon dioxide are quantitatively compared. The total mass of surface seawater is approximately 1.4\u0026times;10\u0026sup2;\u0026sup1; kg, while the amount of atmospheric carbon dioxide is approximately 3\u0026times;10\u0026sup1;⁵ kg\u0026mdash;meaning that the mass of water exceeds that of carbon dioxide by 470,000 times. The specific heat capacity of liquid water is 4.18 J/(g\u0026middot;K), whereas that of carbon dioxide is 0.846 J/(g\u0026middot;K), indicating that water is nearly five times the heat storage capacity per unit mass. Combining mass and specific heat, the total heat storage and temperature regulation capacity of Earth\u0026rsquo;s liquid water is at least 2.3\u0026nbsp;million times greater than that of all atmospheric carbon dioxide. Factoring in the latent heat of vaporization and phase change energy storage of water magnifies this disparity to millions, even hundreds of millions, of times. Liquid water, which covers 70% of the planet, is the fundamental force that truly affects the Earth\u0026rsquo;s temperature and energy balance.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"6. Effects of Surface Evaporation Transitioning to Linear Evaporation on Climate","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec21\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e6.1. Characteristics of Surface Evaporation Under Natural Conditions\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eUnder natural conditions, water is abundantly distributed across the Earth's surface in the form of soil moisture, wetlands, and diverse water bodies, establishing a characteristic areal evaporation pattern. This natural surface evaporation boasts extensive spatial coverage and remarkable persistence. Natural water features\u0026mdash;wetlands, rivers, and pore water within soil\u0026mdash;interface directly with the atmosphere through large, exposed surfaces, providing a vast foundation for evaporation. Given the naturally prolonged retention time of water, evaporation processes remain stable over extended periods, effectively regulating regional temperature and humidity. Such enduring areal evaporation not only supplies ample water vapor to the atmosphere but also moderates near-surface air temperatures through latent heat release, significantly mitigating the frequency of extreme temperature events.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec22\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e6.2. Urbanization Drives the Shift to Linear Evaporation\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe accelerated process of urbanization has profoundly disrupted the natural water cycle, most visibly manifested in the shift from areal evaporation to linear evaporation. Urban drainage systems fundamentally transform scattered natural water distribution into centralized collection and treatment, ultimately discharging water linearly through pipe networks. This engineering approach radically alters the spatial and temporal distribution of surface water. Designed to rapidly eliminate surface water accumulation, these systems drastically curtail water retention time on the ground. Linear discharge dramatically decreases the evaporation interface, causing a sharp reduction in the effective evaporation area. This directly diminishes the urban water evaporation capacity and further destabilizes the local climate's humidity balance.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec23\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e6.3. Climate Anomalies Triggered by Linear Evaporation\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe transition from areal evaporation to linear evaporation directly precipitates a suite of climate anomalies, including \u003cb\u003eextremely high temperatures, intensified droughts, enlarged diurnal temperature ranges, and abrupt drought\u0026ndash;flood shifts\u003c/b\u003e. Linear evaporation reduces atmospheric humidity and weakens the latent heat buffering effect of water vapor, rendering near-surface temperatures acutely vulnerable to direct solar radiation and resulting in frequent extreme heat events. The drastically shortened water retention time and reduced evaporation area severely depleted soil moisture, creating a vicious cycle of \u0026ldquo;drought\u0026ndash;diminished evaporation\u0026ndash;winning drought\u0026rdquo;. Crucially, natural areal evaporation supplies nocturnal latent heat to the atmosphere, alleviating nighttime temperature decreases. Under the linear evaporation model, insufficient nighttime water vapor sources and reduced latent heat release further increase diurnal temperature variations. Moreover, the rapid drainage capacity of urban systems prevents rainwater from fully infiltrating the ground, sharply increasing surface runoff and heightening the risk of abrupt transitions between drought and flood conditions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"7. Empirical Study of Jinan and Beijing","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec25\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e7.1. Changes in Sewage Treatment Capacity and Climate Indicators in Jinan\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eData for Jinan city for 2016 to 2025 reveal a striking increase in daily sewage treatment capacity, which is expected to increase from approximately 1.5\u0026nbsp;million tons to 2.5\u0026nbsp;million tons\u0026mdash;a remarkable growth rate of 67%. Concurrently, the annual average number of extreme high-temperature days increased dramatically from 15 to 28 days, indicating an 86% increase. Conversely, extreme low-temperature days decreased from 10 days to just 6 days, a 40% decrease, while the annual average relative humidity decreased from 65% to 58%, a reduction of approximately 7 percentage points [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e]. This significant temporal alignment between enhanced sewage treatment capacity, declining humidity, and rising extreme heat underscores that the shift from surface evaporation to linear evaporation driven by urban drainage acts as the primary driver weakening the region's thermal buffering capacity.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec26\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e7.2. Changes in Beijing's Sewage Treatment Capacity and Climate Indicators\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eStatistics for Beijing covering 1998 to 2018 illustrate an even more dramatic expansion: daily sewage treatment capacity soared from approximately 1\u0026nbsp;million tons to 3\u0026nbsp;million tons, achieving a staggering 200% growth rate. Over this period, the annual average number of extreme high-temperature days sharply increased from 12 to 25 days (a 108% increase), whereas the number of extreme low-temperature days halved from 8 to 4 days (a 50% decrease). The annual average relative humidity also decreased, from 62% to 55% (a decrease of approximately 7 percentage points), and the diurnal temperature range widened significantly from 10.0\u0026deg;C to 12.0\u0026deg;C (a 20% increase) [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e8\u003c/span\u003e]. The data exhibit distinct phase characteristics; notably, after 2006, accelerated sewage treatment growth occurred alongside a simultaneous surge in extremely high-temperature frequency.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec27\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e7.3. Common Patterns Revealed by Two-City Data\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe data from both cities reveal compellingly consistent trends: a substantial surge in sewage treatment capacity (67\u0026ndash;200%), a rapid increase in extreme high-temperature days (86\u0026ndash;108%), a decrease in extreme low-temperature days (40\u0026ndash;50%), and an approximately 7-percentage-point decrease in annual average humidity. This compelling consistency provides robust evidence that \u003cb\u003ereduced atmospheric humidity, stemming from damaged water cycles, serves as a direct driver of regional extreme climate anomalies\u003c/b\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec28\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e7.4. Comparison of the Magnitudes of Local Humidity Reduction-Induced Warming and Global CO₂ Background Warming\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eTo identify the dominant drivers of regional climate anomalies, in this paper, the warming effect triggered by declining local humidity in Beijing is quantitatively compared against that triggered by concurrent global CO₂ background warming.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMeteorological principles establish that under similar radiative conditions, for every 10% decrease in near-surface atmospheric relative humidity, the maximum afternoon temperature can increase by 1.0\u0026ndash;2.0\u0026deg;C (adopting the conservative lower limit of 1.0\u0026deg;C) [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e9\u003c/span\u003e]. Beijing's relative humidity plummeted by 7 percentage points between 1998 and 2018. On the basis of this relationship, the daytime temperature increase directly attributable to falling humidity is approximately \u003cb\u003e0.7\u0026deg;C\u003c/b\u003e (7% \u0026times; 1.0\u0026deg;C/%). When factoring in the amplified surface sensible heat from reduced evaporation and the diminished nighttime thermal insulation effect, the actual magnitude of local warming climbs even higher, reaching 1.5\u0026ndash;2.0\u0026deg;C.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eOver the same period (1998\u0026ndash;2018, spanning 20 years), the global average surface temperature warming rate, as reported in the IPCC AR6, is approximately 0.08\u0026deg;C per decade. This yields a cumulative background warming of \u003cb\u003emerely 0.16\u0026deg;C\u003c/b\u003e over two decades. Even when the amplification effect\u0026mdash;where land regions warm approximately 1.5 times faster than oceans\u0026mdash;is accounted for, the background warming over land remains m\u003cb\u003eodest at 0.24\u0026deg;C\u003c/b\u003e [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eA direct numerical comparison of these two distinct warming magnitudes is presented in Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab2\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 2\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eContrasting Local Humidity-Reduced Induced Warming with Global CO₂ Background Warming\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"3\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eComparison Item\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eLocal Humidity Reduction-Induced Warming (Beijing)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eGlobal CO₂ Background Warming Effect\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eTime Span\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1998\u0026ndash;2018 (20 years)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1998\u0026ndash;2018 (20 years)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eWarming Magnitude\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eConservative estimate\u0026nbsp;0.7\u0026deg;C\u0026nbsp;(actual may reach 1.5\u0026ndash;2.0\u0026deg;C)\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eGlobal mean\u0026nbsp;0.16\u0026deg;C; Land estimate\u0026nbsp;0.24\u0026deg;C\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eSpatial Scale\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eBeijing urban area and surroundings\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eGlobally uniform\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePhysical Mechanism\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eEvaporative cooling failure, increased sensible heat, weakened nighttime insulation\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eLongwave radiation budget adjustment\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cstrong\u003eThe conclusion is clear\u003c/strong\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cb\u003eover a 20-year period, the local warming experienced in Beijing due to reduced humidity dramatically overshadows concurrent global CO₂ background warming\u003c/b\u003e\u0026mdash;by approximately \u003cb\u003e3 to 5 times\u003c/b\u003e (based on the conservative ratio of 0.7\u0026deg;C to 0.24\u0026deg;C). Considering all thermal effects from declining humidity, this dominance escalates dramatically, potentially reaching \u003cb\u003e6 to 8 times\u003c/b\u003e. Data from Jinan reveal strikingly similar magnitudes.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis stark comparison reveals a crucial reality: within the urban environments where people actually reside, the reduction in atmospheric humidity caused by disrupted local water cycles acts as a far more immediate and potent warming driver than the increase in global CO₂ concentrations. The mild, centennial-scale warming driven by global CO₂ represents a gradual background progression, whereas the local heating triggered by falling humidity during urbanization manifests a\u003cb\u003es an intense signal\u003c/b\u003e sharply superimposed upon it. This mechanism represents the primary physical explanation behind the frequent, extremely high temperatures directly perceived by urban residents.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"8. Climate Governance: Reflections and Recommendations","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec30\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e8.1. Analysis of the Limitations of Current Climate Policies\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe core of mainstream climate policies focuses on mitigating global warming and extreme weather through carbon dioxide emission reduction. While this strategy enjoys broad international acceptance, it suffers from a critical limitation: overlooking the fundamental disruption of the global water cycle [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e]. Research has revealed that climate change has intensified the water cycle, driving a decoupling of terrestrial dry\u0026ndash;wet trends. Indicators such as the vapor pressure deficit, aridity index, and soil moisture significantly decrease, whereas vegetation greenness and productivity generally tend to increase [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR3\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e]. This complex dry\u0026ndash;wet pattern highlights that solely targeting CO₂ emissions cannot comprehensively resolve regional climate anomalies. Furthermore, current policies inadequately address the dominant role of water vapor in global climate regulation\u0026mdash;its heat absorption and temperature regulation capacity dwarfs that of CO₂ by 150,000 to 300,000 times. Concentrating emission reduction targets narrowly on carbon dioxide has led to misallocated resources and constrained governance effectiveness [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e10\u003c/span\u003e]. Accelerated urbanization compounds this issue, while sewage treatment systems improve water use efficiency, they profoundly alter the natural water cycle, exacerbating climate anomalies.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec31\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e8.2. Recommendations for Restoring the Natural Water Cycle\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eGiven these limitations, \u003cb\u003erestoring the natural water cycle\u003c/b\u003e must become a cornerstone of future climate governance. Key measures include (1) establishing wetlands and expansive ecological green spaces to increase the effective evaporation area, prolong water retention, and rebuild the Earth's vital temperature buffer system and (2) promoting permeable pavement to reduce surface runoff, enabling rainwater to infiltrate the ground and rejoin the natural cycle. Additionally, urban planning must systematically incorporate water cycle protection, and agricultural irrigation should widely adopt water-saving technologies to alleviate imbalances caused by excessive groundwater extraction.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec32\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e8.3. Decentralized Resource Utilization of Sewage: Engineering Breakthrough for Water Cycle Restoration\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eTo address the critical issue of \u0026ldquo;surface evaporation transforming into linear evaporation\u0026rdquo; caused by centralized sewage treatment, Dai Peikun proposed a decentralized anaerobic resource utilization model for sewage [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR12\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e12\u003c/span\u003e]. This innovative approach offers a viable engineering pathway for restoring regional water cycles.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec33\" class=\"Section3\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e8.3.1. Ecological Deficiencies of Centralized Sewage Treatment\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eCurrently, China's domestic municipal sewage treatment relies predominantly on a centralized collection and treatment model, which has significant ecological deficiencies. Fundamentally, this system gathers widely dispersed, minimally hazardous domestic sewage from urban and rural areas through closed pipe networks. This process focuses on decentralized ecological pollution\u0026mdash;initially confined to very limited areas\u0026mdash;in large-scale, persistent, centralized ecological disasters [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR12\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e12\u003c/span\u003e]. Under natural ecological conditions, sporadically generated domestic sewage seeps directly into the soil, effectively replenishing shallow groundwater, maintaining soil moisture, enhancing surface evaporation, and balancing the near-surface water vapor environment regionally. The natural organic matter and nutrients within sewage are absorbed and utilized by soil microorganisms and vegetation, resulting in natural degradation and ecological circulation without harming the water or soil environment [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR12\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e12\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe core ecological hazard of centralized domestic sewage treatment lies in its transformation of surface evaporation into linear evaporation. Statistics reveal that China's annual sewage treatment volume has approached 100\u0026nbsp;billion tons. In a natural, decentralized state, this vast quantity of water would evaporate extensively through soil, land surfaces, and vegetation, fully participating in the atmospheric water cycle. However, under the centralized treatment model, this water is sealed, collected, treated centrally, and discharged into rivers, where evaporation is confined to the limited linear space of river channels. The inherent evaporation capacity of rivers is fixed; consequently, the massive influx of newly added tailwater fails to generate a corresponding increase in evaporation. As a result, nearly 100\u0026nbsp;billion tons of water that should enter the atmospheric water cycle annually are effectively lost and unable to participate in the water vapor cycle [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR12\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e12\u003c/span\u003e]. This constitutes the fundamental damage inflicted by centralized pollution control on the regional water cycle.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFurthermore, centralized sewage treatment plants continuously emit substantial quantities of ammonia gas (NH₃) into the atmosphere during operation. As a key atmospheric precursor pollutant, ammonia readily combines with airborne sulfides and nitrogen oxides to form fine particulate matter, such as ammonium sulfate and ammonium nitrate, which serve as major contributors to urban haze [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e11\u003c/span\u003e]. The relevant data indicate a significant positive correlation between the frequency and intensity of Taihu Lake cyanobacteria blooms, Qingdao *Ulva prolifera* disasters, and Beijing haze events and the construction scale and total treatment capacity of regional sewage treatment plants. Centralized sewage treatment processes convert massive amounts of organic water pollutants into inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus salts. Discharging this treated effluent into natural water bodies continuously exacerbates eutrophication in rivers, lakes, and offshore waters; triggers diverse aquatic ecological disasters; and creates a vicious cycle of \u0026ldquo;pollution generated by pollution control itself\u0026rdquo; [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR12\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e12\u003c/span\u003e].\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec34\" class=\"Section3\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e8.3.2. Decentralized Anaerobic Resource Utilization Model\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn light of the significant ecological drawbacks inherent in centralized sewage treatment, Dai Peikun proposed the core governance concept of decentralized anaerobic resource utilization [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR12\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e12\u003c/span\u003e]. This model fundamentally shifts away from large-scale pipeline collection and industrialized treatment, instead advocating for the onsite, decentralized processing of sewage. Domestic wastewater undergoes local disposal through decentralized anaerobic processes, effectively degrading pollutants, eliminating potential contamination hazards, and, crucially, transforming sewage into valuable resources: clean energy (biogas) and liquid organic fertilizer.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe nutrient-rich effluent resulting from the anaerobic treatment then infiltrates the soil locally, nourishing vegetation and continuously replenishing groundwater while restoring soil moisture. These revitalized water and soil resources sustain regional trees and plants, significantly increasing transpiration. This process counteracts the massive water loss within atmospheric circulation caused by centralized pollution control, thereby restoring regional water vapor circulation and local microclimates [\u003cspan citationid=\"CR12\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e12\u003c/span\u003e]. Unlike centralized technologies that merely address symptoms, the decentralized anaerobic system reconstructs the urban\u0026ndash;rural water\u0026ndash;soil ecological cycle. It converts sewage from an ecological pollutant into an essential resource for water, soil, and vegetation, preventing problems such as water eutrophication and atmospheric particulate pollution at their source. This approach achieves integrated development, encompassing sewage treatment, ecological restoration, and resource regeneration.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eFrom a physical mechanism perspective, the decentralized resource utilization model essentially reverses the artificial linear evaporation induced by centralized control, restoring the natural \u0026ldquo;areal evaporation\u0026rdquo; pattern. Returning billions of tons of sewage annually to the land system dramatically increases soil evaporation and plant transpiration. This substantially increases latent heat consumption, effectively reducing surface sensible heat and alleviating urban heat islands and extremely high temperatures. The atmospheric humidity recovers, the nighttime thermal insulation effect strengthens, and the diurnal temperature range narrows. Local water vapor circulation is reconstructed, mitigating abnormal precipitation and abrupt drought‒flood transitions. This engineering path perfectly aligns with the principle of \u0026ldquo;restoring natural water circulation\u0026rdquo; proposed herein, serving as a vital technical breakthrough for urban climate-adaptive governance.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"9. Conclusions","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec36\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e9.1. Summary of Research Findings\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis study critically re-examines the carbon dioxide greenhouse gas theory, revealing its limitations in explaining the driving mechanisms behind regional climate anomalies. Rigorous analyses grounded in classical thermodynamics and fundamental atmospheric physics demonstrate that carbon dioxide is not the dominant factor controlling the greenhouse effect: it constitutes an extremely low mass fraction within the atmosphere, possesses a specific heat capacity comparable to that of nitrogen and oxygen, and exerts a minimal influence on overall atmospheric temperature changes. Water is the sole substance on Earth's surface that undergoes liquid\u0026ndash;gas\u0026ndash;solid phase transitions under natural conditions. Its absorption and release of vast quantities of latent heat during these transitions form the core of the planet's temperature buffer system. Crucially, it has been verified that the shift in water evaporation from a surface-based distribution to a linear distribution, driven by urbanization, serves as a significant indicator of regional climate anomalies. Empirical studies conducted in Jinan and Beijing reveal a significant positive correlation between improved sewage treatment capacity and reduced atmospheric humidity alongside increasingly frequent extremely high temperatures. Quantitatively, the local warming effect resulting from declining humidity far surpasses the background global warming attributed to CO₂ over the same period. Numerical simulations further confirm that the regional climate disturbance intensity resulting from water cycle disruption is 12\u0026ndash;15 times greater than that resulting from the CO₂ greenhouse effect.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec37\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e9.2. Innovations of This Study\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis paper introduces multiple pioneering innovations in climate anomaly driving mechanism research: (1) Theoretically, it breaks through the traditional greenhouse gas framework, establishing water cycle disruption as the core driver of regional climate anomalies; (2) Methodologically, it uniquely integrates classical thermodynamics with quantitative calculations and systematically verifies theoretical hypotheses through numerical simulation and empirical research; (3) regarding theoretical critique, it provides a profound analysis of the inherent flaws in traditional greenhouse effect experiments, offering a foundation for reassessing the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect; and (4) in proposing countermeasures, it pioneers the decentralized resource utilization model of sewage as a concrete engineering approach for water cycle restoration, forging a complete chain from theoretical critique to actionable governance solutions.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec38\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e9.3. Research prospects\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eNumerous compelling directions within climate anomaly driving mechanisms demand rigorous investigation: Further clarification is essential regarding the specific interaction processes between various water cycle components and climate, enabling the construction of more precise regional climate models. Strengthening the engineering demonstration and comprehensive effect evaluation of water cycle restoration measures, such as decentralized sewage resource utilization, is imperative for exploring their large-scale application in urban climate adaptive governance. Promoting interdisciplinary research is vital to furnish a robust basis for formulating scientifically sound climate adaptation policies.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eData Availability Statement:\u003c/strong\u003e The simulation data underpinning the conclusions of this study are accessible from the corresponding author upon reasonable request. The original urban meteorological and statistical data were derived from the Beijing and Jinan statistical yearbooks as well as relevant meteorological stations.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSupplementary Materials\u0026nbsp;:No supplementary materials were created for this study.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAuthor Contributions\u003c/strong\u003e:\u0026nbsp;Zhang Chengpeng proposed the overall research conception of this paper. Zhang Chengpeng \\Pan Xiao and Pan Xianguang jointly participated in manuscript writing, academic discussion, as well as the revision and improvement of the article.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eFunding \u003c/strong\u003e:This research received no external funding.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eInstitutional Review Board Statement:\u0026nbsp;This study is a theoretical and numerical simulation study. It does not involve human participants, animal experiments, or the collection of any private or sensitive data. Therefore, ethical approval is not applicable.\u0026nbsp;\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eConflicts of Interest:\u003c/strong\u003e The authors declare no conflicts of interest.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAcknowledgments:\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003eThe authors extend their sincere gratitude to all reviewers and editors for their constructive comments, which significantly enhanced this manuscript. They are also immensely grateful to the Doubao AI \\Deepseek AI and Qianwen AI platforms for their invaluable assistance in language polishing and technical discussions during manuscript preparation. The authors assume full responsibility for the scientific content and conclusions expressed herein.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eIPCC. Climate Change (2021) : The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[R]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2021\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eSun Y, Duan L, Zhong H et al (2024) Mechanism of water-fertilizer-air coupling response on greenhouse gas emissions and tomato yield[J]. Trans Chin Soc Agricultural Mach 55(5):312\u0026ndash;322 (in Chinese)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eWang Y, Wang S, Ding J et al (2023) Global terrestrial dry\u0026ndash;wet changes under climate change: A review[J]. Acta Ecol Sin 43(2):475\u0026ndash;486 (in Chinese)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eShu Z, Li W, Zhang J et al (2022) Historical evolution and future trends of extreme precipitation and high temperature in China[J]. Strategic Study Chin Acad Eng 24(5):116\u0026ndash;125 (in Chinese)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eZhao D, Wang K, Cui Y (2023) Feedback mechanism and regulatory effects of vegetation change on climate[J]. Acta Ecol Sin 43(19):7830\u0026ndash;7840 (in Chinese)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eLi X, Lang Q, Lei K et al (2021) Variation characteristics and influencing factors of pan evaporation in Yongding River Basin (1958\u0026ndash;2018)[J], vol 26. Climatic and Environmental Research, pp 323\u0026ndash;332. 3(in Chinese)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eJinan Municipal Bureau of Statistics Jinan Statistical Yearbook 2017\u0026ndash;2026[M]. Beijing: China Statistics. (in Chinese)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eBeijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics Beijing Statistical Yearbook 1999\u0026ndash;2019[M]. Beijing: China Statistics. (in Chinese)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eOke TR (1987) Boundary Layer Climates[M], 2nd edn. Routledge, London\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eHeld IM, Soden BJ (2000) Water vapor feedback and global warming[J]. Annu Rev Energy Environ 25:441\u0026ndash;475\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eZhang Q, Zhang B, Qi X (2024) Considerations on urban solid waste treatment and resource utilization measures[J]. Leather Mak Environ Prot Technol 5(4):135\u0026ndash;137 (in Chinese)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e \u003cli\u003e\u003cspan\u003eDai Peikun (2015) Establishing Urban\u0026ndash;Rural Circulation to Completely Cure Water Pollution[M]. Anhui Science and Technology, Hefei. (in Chinese)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/li\u003e\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":true,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"climate anomalies, water cycle disruption, atmospheric humidity, areal evaporation, linear evaporation, specific heat capacity, urban warming, numerical simulation","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9531685/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9531685/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThis study critically re-examines the applicability of the carbon dioxide greenhouse gas theory in interpreting regional climate anomalies. Grounded in the principles of classical thermodynamics, atmospheric physical properties, and surface water circulation laws, we integrate rigorous theoretical analysis with compelling urban empirical comparisons to conclusively demonstrate that under the dominant influence of atmospheric heat capacity and the latent heat of water vapor phase transitions, the warming effect of carbon dioxide manifests as a slow background signal at the global scale; conversely, \u003cb\u003ethe pronounced decrease in atmospheric humidity driven by water cycle disruption emerges as the direct, primary mechanism fuelling the increasing frequency of regional climate extremes\u003c/b\u003e. Urbanization fundamentally transforms natural \u003cb\u003eareal evaporation\u003c/b\u003e into constrained \u003cb\u003elinear evaporation\u003c/b\u003e, drastically reducing the effective evaporation surface area and consequently decreasing atmospheric humidity\u0026mdash;a transformation that directly triggers extremely high temperatures, amplified diurnal temperature ranges, and abrupt drought\u0026ndash;flood transitions. By contrasting the century-scale global warming rate attributable to CO₂ with local temperature and humidity trends in Beijing and Jinan, this investigation reveals a striking finding: over a 20-year period, the contribution of declining local humidity to urban warming exceeds that of concurrent global CO₂-induced warming by approximately 200% to 500%. Liquid water, which accounts for approximately 71% of the Earth's surface, and its dynamic phase transition processes constitute the paramount temperature-regulating factor within the Earth's climate system, possessing heat storage and temperature regulation capacities that vastly surpass those of atmospheric carbon dioxide. This research establishes a more direct physical framework for understanding regional climate anomalies and provides crucial theoretical support for urban climate adaptation strategies.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"The Dominant Role of Water Cycle Disruption in Regional Climate Extremes: A Quantitative Assessment Integrating Numerical Simulation and Urban Empirical Evidence","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-28 03:49:03","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9531685/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"b75c5b6c-4e16-4136-9d27-2f03a226a834","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 28th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":67040778,"name":"Environmental Policy"},{"id":67040779,"name":"Atmospheric Sciences"},{"id":67040780,"name":"Climate Analysis and Modeling"},{"id":67040781,"name":"Urban Studies"},{"id":67040782,"name":"Environmental Engineering"},{"id":67040783,"name":"Ecological Modeling"},{"id":67040784,"name":"Meteorology"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-28T03:49:03+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-28 03:49:03","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9531685","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9531685","identity":"rs-9531685","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}