Enhancing Efficiency of Public Expenditure Through GovTech

Enhancing Efficiency of Public Expenditure Through GovTech | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Enhancing Efficiency of Public Expenditure Through GovTech Nose Manabu This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7626581/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 10 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in International Tax and Public Finance → Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract How can the digitalization of fiscal operations (GovTech) improve budget processes and the delivery of public expenditure? A simple framework identifies three channels--greater transparency, lower administrative costs, and improved targeting of social assistance--and generates testable predictions. This paper provides systematic cross-country evidence, extending insights from the micro-experimental literature to the macro level. Fixed-effects regressions show that digital budget payments and e-procurement are associated with higher budget transparency and broader social assistance coverage among the poor. However, adopting GovTech strategies alone is insufficient to unlock these gains. Causal forest estimates reveal substantial heterogeneity: with the largest gains in social transfer coverage in countries that have enabling institutions such as digital identification systems. Digital connectivity exhibits nonlinear effect—strong at low levels of access but yielding diminishing returns once near-universal coverage is achieved. These results highlight the importance of sequencing GovTech with foundational enablers, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. JEL Classification: E60, H11, H50, H61, H83, O23, O38 GovTech Technology adoption Expenditure efficiency Machine learning Causal forest Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files OnlineappendixSeptember2025.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 10 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in International Tax and Public Finance → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 08 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 08 Dec, 2025 Reviews received at journal 19 Nov, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 28 Sep, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 28 Sep, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 25 Sep, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 21 Sep, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 16 Sep, 2025 First submitted to journal 16 Sep, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7626581","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":521794022,"identity":"667d96e7-e2bb-46b1-97c8-001161ee05f7","order_by":0,"name":"Nose 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