Global deforestation rates deviate from a profit-oriented baseline

Measuring the deforestation that did not happen – a global perspective | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Measuring the deforestation that did not happen – a global perspective Thomas Knoke, Jorge Cueva, Logan Bingham, Karla Pintado, Mengistie Kindu, and 12 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7461473/v2 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Abstract Why do forests keep disappearing despite conservation interventions? The answer requires an unobservable counterfactual: a world in which these interventions never occurred. For 28 countries that account for 87% of global deforestation, we simulate counterfactual deforestation driven solely by agricultural profits. Under this scenario, deforestation rates would have increased by more than twice the observed rate relative to 2001-2004, so deforestation reduced relative to the counterfactual. However, correlations between reductions in deforestation in some countries and additional deforestation in others suggest that 43% of the reductions we have identified (23.9 ± 0.744 million hectares) were offset by leakage. If all 28 countries had achieved reductions comparable to the six most successful, global deforestation would have been 15.8% lower than in 2001-2004. Eliminating profit-oriented deforestation would require annual conservation payments of US$59 billion (<1% of sample GDP). Our framework enables transparent evaluation of conservation progress based on a parsimonious land-change model and supports monitoring at continental and global scales. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability Biological sciences/Ecology/Conservation biology Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files SupplementaryMaterials.docx Extendeddata.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 2 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Show more versions Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7461473","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":516289540,"identity":"a5bcbcef-a14e-4f89-a31e-c5810e03d621","order_by":0,"name":"Thomas 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