The Economic Cost of Agricultural Climate Migration in the United States

The Economic Cost of Agricultural Climate Migration in the United States | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Analysis The Economic Cost of Agricultural Climate Migration in the United States Keshav Krishnan This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9181113/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Crop production in the United States has migrated northward at approximately 15 miles per decade over the past seven decades, yet the economic consequences of this geographic reorganization remain unquantified. Here we estimate four interconnected costs of agricultural climate migration using county8 level panel data across 2,902 counties, a 10-GCM CMIP6 ensemble under SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0, and crop-switching classifiers validated against four historical transitions. Three independent valuation methods—hedonic regression (R2 = 0.73), discounted cash flow, and cap-rate analysis—converge on $56–168 billion in unpriced climate risk embedded in US farmland markets (2023 USD; 95% CI $52–69 billion for the conservative DCF estimate). An instrumental variables strategy (first-stage F = 1,184) links this asset exposure to observed community decline: 473 counties exhibit four or more simulta14 neous indicators of rural contraction in 2009–2023 data. Federal crop insurance misprices climate risk by $5.9 billion yr−1 (95% CI $5.4–6.4 billion), generating a $2.8 billion annual implicit transfer from climate-advantaged to climate-stressed counties. An additional 514 northern counties hold $51 billion yr−1 in agricultural opportunity that existing infrastructure cannot capture. These consequences are interconnected: the insurance transfer subsidizes continued investment where climate prospects are de19 teriorating while draining capital from regions gaining viability. Blending backward-looking premiums with forward-looking climate projections would correct the price signal without requiring new legisla21 tion, as existing authority under the Federal Crop Insurance Act permits modification of premium-setting methodology. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate-change impacts/Governance Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Environmental economics Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files supplementaryinformation.pdf Supplementary Information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9181113","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Analysis","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":611339617,"identity":"61549a51-eb0f-42a8-b668-09ca138e5b98","order_by":0,"name":"Keshav Krishnan","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABCElEQVRIie3PsUrDQBzH8Z8EkuVK1gtX0le4EEgWH6Yl0C4JOmZwcMoNtrqmb9FHiByY5dwdHCqFc3HoJAiintjBIaHt1uG+cNx/uA/cH7DZTjAKuL83h/M3hOacNcD4cBLDTAeS3TC53kcCIfT6o0KcCk9vLq+eZ3f0omm25RS+uOl0jKg0WlRIhpKkcf2gi2Wd4b5WOah6XHWRkOYuJer7nDrEZcSVxeopgxxUJTgtusnoVQefCoZ4mpEvOeP7CKNIGCmRUMcMg0qOdyTvJcE8T9iwRGw+ZsitjJbzDTe7TEnfLrRtdfDGEdV+az72Lke+N3lZb8ss9MWik/RHjntus9lstv/9AN/fWTtkkXOmAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0009-0002-6774-5106","institution":"Olmsted LLC","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Keshav","middleName":"","lastName":"Krishnan","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-20 17:30:21","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9181113/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9181113/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":105904275,"identity":"859ccfed-f2a4-4766-a579-f26a43d1503d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-01 10:07:01","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":2240685,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"main.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9181113/v1_covered_e5303d58-fa5a-4976-a33d-5684938fc273.pdf"},{"id":105786920,"identity":"5b32c060-407e-4d22-92f3-466a5015aa68","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-31 06:52:59","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":264991,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary Information","description":"","filename":"supplementaryinformation.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9181113/v1/fd68a1d0545fe55728eb7d2b.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"The Economic Cost of Agricultural Climate Migration in the United States","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"commssustain","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"commssustain","sideBox":"Learn more about [Communications Sustainability](https://www.nature.com/commssustain/)","snPcode":"44458","submissionUrl":"https://mts-commssustain.nature.com","title":"Communications Sustainability","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9181113/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9181113/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eCrop production in the United States has migrated northward at approximately 15 miles per decade over the past seven decades, yet the economic consequences of this geographic reorganization remain unquantified. 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