Caveats on COVID-19 Herd Immunity Threshold: the Spain case

Caveats on COVID-19 Herd Immunity Threshold: the Spain case | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Caveats on COVID-19 Herd Immunity Threshold: the Spain case David Garcia-Garcia, Enrique Morales, Eva S. Fonfría, Isabel Vigo, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-596691/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 12 Jan, 2022 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract After a year of living with the COVID-19 pandemic and its associated consequences, hope looms on the horizon thanks to vaccines. The question is what percentage of the population needs to be immune to reach herd immunity, that is to avoid future outbreaks. The answer depends on the basic reproductive number, R 0 , a key epidemiological parameter measuring the transmission capacity of a disease. Besides the virus itself, R 0 depends on the characteristics of the population and their environment. Additionally, the estimate of R 0 depends on the methodology used, the accuracy of data, and the generation time distribution. The aim of this study is to provide a herd immunity threshold for Spain, for which we considered the different combinations of these elements to obtain the R 0 for the Spanish population. Estimates of R 0 range from 1.39 to 3.10, with the largest differences produced by the choice of the methodology to estimate R 0 . With these values, the herd immunity threshold ranges from 28.1–67.7%, which makes 70% a realistic upper bound for Spain. Epidemiology Infectious Diseases COVID-19 Herd immunity Basic reproductive number R0 dynamic model Infectious disease modelling Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 12 Jan, 2022 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About In Review Editorial Policies Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-596691","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":31516255,"identity":"d9682069-54c6-494d-b5ed-62c2158d81e7","order_by":0,"name":"David Garcia-Garcia","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Alicante: Universitat d'Alacant","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"David","middleName":"","lastName":"Garcia-Garcia","suffix":""},{"id":31516256,"identity":"d2f85a20-80f1-4d7f-bf2a-ad624f19308a","order_by":1,"name":"Enrique Morales","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Alicante: Universitat d'Alacant","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Enrique","middleName":"","lastName":"Morales","suffix":""},{"id":31516257,"identity":"5044c251-b6c7-4156-892f-2a60a9da4a99","order_by":2,"name":"Eva S. 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The question is what percentage of the population needs to be immune to reach herd immunity, that is to avoid future outbreaks. The answer depends on the basic reproductive number, \u003cem\u003eR\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003e0\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e, a key epidemiological parameter measuring the transmission capacity of a disease. Besides the virus itself, \u003cem\u003eR\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003e0\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e depends on the characteristics of the population and their environment. Additionally, the estimate of \u003cem\u003eR\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003e0\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e depends on the methodology used, the accuracy of data, and the generation time distribution. The aim of this study is to provide a herd immunity threshold for Spain, for which we considered the different combinations of these elements to obtain the \u003cem\u003eR\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003e0\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e for the Spanish population. Estimates of \u003cem\u003eR\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003e0\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e range from 1.39 to 3.10, with the largest differences produced by the choice of the methodology to estimate \u003cem\u003eR\u003c/em\u003e\u003csub\u003e\u003cem\u003e0\u003c/em\u003e\u003c/sub\u003e. With these values, the herd immunity threshold ranges from 28.1\u0026ndash;67.7%, which makes 70% a realistic upper bound for Spain.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Caveats on COVID-19 Herd Immunity Threshold: the Spain case","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2021-06-07 17:50:14","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-596691/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"ef78d143-affd-45f6-a3a4-9392d441a443","owner":[],"postedDate":"June 7th, 2021","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[{"id":4856717,"name":"Epidemiology"},{"id":4856718,"name":"Infectious Diseases"}],"tags":[{"value":"featured","date":"2021-06-11 23:38:10"}],"updatedAt":"2022-01-12T12:18:04+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-596691","link":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-04440-z","journal":{"identity":"scientific-reports","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Scientific Reports"},"publishedOn":"2022-01-12 12:18:04","publishedOnDateReadable":"January 12th, 2022"},"versionCreatedAt":"2021-06-07 17:50:14","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1038/s41598-021-04440-z","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-04440-z","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-596691","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-596691","identity":"rs-596691","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"iFTdqyg4nuje_uAy1AHro","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}