Climate Change Will Increase High Temperature Risks, Degradation, and Costs of Rooftop Photovoltaics Globally

Climate Change Will Increase High Temperature Risks, Degradation, and Costs of Rooftop Photovoltaics Globally | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Climate Change Will Increase High Temperature Risks, Degradation, and Costs of Rooftop Photovoltaics Globally Haochi Wu, Qinqin Kong, Matthew Huber, Mingyang Sun, Michael T. Craig This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6605168/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Driven by the global energy transition, solar photovoltaic (PV) investments totaled 500 billion USD in 2024 and could quadruple by 2030. Solar PV panels, particularly rooftop PV, have reduced performance, reliability, and lifespans at high operational temperatures. Existing standards around high temperature risk (HTR) for PV panels are set using historic climate data. Here we show that climate change will increase HTR and resulting PV degradation and costs for rooftop PV globally. We combine bias-corrected output from an ensemble of global climate models with a bottom-up PV physical-chemical Arrhenius degradation and economic model. For PV mounted on tilted roofs, global rooftop PV capacity exposure to HTR will increase by 29% and 97% at 2°C to 4°C global warming relative to the historical period, respectively. Regions with large expected PV growth, including Southeast Asia and North America, emerge as new HTR hotspots. Warming-induced increases in HTR accelerate PV aging and degradation, increasing the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for rooftop PV up to 20% globally at 2.5°C warming. These changes will exacerbate regional inequities in rooftop PV reliability and cost, further disadvantaging vulnerable regions in accessing reliable, affordable, and low-carbon energy. Via sensitivity analysis, we find qualitatively similar insights from climate change for alternative PV technologies and for PV mounted on flat roofs. Accelerated degradation and LCOE increases are more modest for PV mounted on flat roofs, of up to 9% globally at 2.5°C warming. Our results underscore the need to update solar PV standards for climate change to safeguard the global energy transition. solar photovoltaics climate change reliability degradation climate adaptation IEC standard 63126 Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6605168","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":452817796,"identity":"c525ab1f-6775-4010-bb63-0316a6c943c8","order_by":0,"name":"Haochi Wu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Haochi","middleName":"","lastName":"Wu","suffix":""},{"id":452817797,"identity":"d181ae49-846f-44f5-ade7-68075baf77a5","order_by":1,"name":"Qinqin Kong","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Qinqin","middleName":"","lastName":"Kong","suffix":""},{"id":452817798,"identity":"b2236547-dd86-4d37-86d3-038d132fb37e","order_by":2,"name":"Matthew Huber","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Matthew","middleName":"","lastName":"Huber","suffix":""},{"id":452817799,"identity":"00ce5ea8-9baa-4fff-9905-e9104581003f","order_by":3,"name":"Mingyang Sun","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAArUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHACxgcMB0B0AvFamA1I1sImQZoW+WlnzKoLzhxm4GfPMWD4uYMILQa3c8xuz7hxmEGy540BY+8ZYrRIA7XwfDjMYHAjx4CZsY0Yh83OMSsGabEnWgsD0GHMPECHGUgQq8Xgdlqx9Iwz6TwSZ54VHOwlzmHJGz8XHLOW429P3vjgJ1EOY+AwYAaSPCDmAaI0MDCwP2AmUuUoGAWjYBSMVAAAHKM1QJVsG8cAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mingyang","middleName":"","lastName":"Sun","suffix":""},{"id":452817800,"identity":"6e76c920-d96d-4d58-a6ae-f848bcca1ab4","order_by":4,"name":"Michael T. 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Solar PV panels, particularly rooftop PV, have reduced performance, reliability, and lifespans at high operational temperatures. Existing standards around high temperature risk (HTR) for PV panels are set using historic climate data. Here we show that climate change will increase HTR and resulting PV degradation and costs for rooftop PV globally. We combine bias-corrected output from an ensemble of global climate models with a bottom-up PV physical-chemical Arrhenius degradation and economic model. For PV mounted on tilted roofs, global rooftop PV capacity exposure to HTR will increase by 29% and 97% at 2°C to 4°C global warming relative to the historical period, respectively. Regions with large expected PV growth, including Southeast Asia and North America, emerge as new HTR hotspots. Warming-induced increases in HTR accelerate PV aging and degradation, increasing the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for rooftop PV up to 20% globally at 2.5°C warming. 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