Predicting the spatial and temporal effects of climate change on the south american lizard genus Teius (Squamata: Teiidae)

Background: The consequences of past or future climate change have been studied in many physical and biological systems, and their effects could change the ecology and spatial distribution of suitable areas for a wide variety of organisms. Methods: . We analyzed the environmental and geographic space of the current suitable area and we projected these conditions into Mid-Holocene and 2050 RCP8.5 scenarios. Through these projections, we assessed and quantified whether climate change would affect the distribution and size of environmental and geographic space for lizard species of the genus Teius . Results: . The potentially suitable geographic area for the Mid-Holocene decreased for T. oculatus (-29.55%) and for T. teyou (-6.82%), but for T. suquiensis it was inferred as a larger suitable area (+26%). For the future scenario all species showed a decrease in the potentially suitable area compared to the present ( T. oculatus = -9.30%, T. teyou = -0.79%, T. suquiensis = -37.58%). The first 3 PCA axes in the environmental space explained more than 86% of the variation for each temporal scenario for all species. The higher contribution for PC1-2 in Mid-Holocene and Present were mostly related to temperature and for PC3 with altitude variables: and for the 2050 scenario were temperature for PC1, precipitation for PC2 and altitude-temperature for PC3. The hypervolumen distance for T. oculatus from the Present scenario to Mid-Holocene = 67.80 and for 2050 = 309.10; for T. teyou to Mid-Holocene = 95.67 and for 2050 = 442.67; for T. suquiensis to Mid-Holocene = 275.57 and for 2050 = 248.07. Discussion: These results suggest that current geographic space versus the other temporal forecast of all Teius species, showed different specific magnitude changes in their potentially suitable areas. This work illustrates how ectothermic organisms might have to face major changes in their environmental and geographic space as a consequence of the effect of climate changes.