Evaluation and Projection of Vb-Cyclones and Associated North-Western Mediterranean Sea State in Regional Coupled Climate Simulations

Evaluation and Projection of Vb-Cyclones and Associated North-Western Mediterranean Sea State in Regional Coupled Climate Simulations | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Evaluation and Projection of Vb-Cyclones and Associated North-Western Mediterranean Sea State in Regional Coupled Climate Simulations Praveen Kumar Pothapakula, Amelie Hoff, Anika Obermann Hellhund, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-1139190/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Vb-cyclones propagating from the North-Western Mediterranean Sea into Central Europe are often associated with extreme precipitation. This study explores the state & process chains linking the North-Western Mediterranean Sea and the Vb-event precipitation in Danube, Elbe, and Odra catchments in regional coupled atmosphere-ocean climate simulations with COSMO-CLM+NEMO. Two high-resolution simulations, an evaluation simulation (1951-2005) downscaling the centennial ERA-20C reanalysis and a continuous simulation (historical 1951-2005 + RCP-8.5 future scenario 2006-2099) downscaling the EC-EARTH global climate RCP-8.5 projection are used for this purpose. Sea surface temperature (SST) validation with observations over the Mediterranean Sea reveals a cold bias (approx 1 -- 1.5 K) in the historical & evaluation simulations. There is a good agreement in mean annual Vb-cyclone frequency between the evaluation (9.7 events/year) and the historical (10.1 events/year) simulations. But, there are significant discrepancies in the seasonal cycle. The mean cyclone intensity measured with minimum central pressure, track density, and precipitation rankings in the catchments also show good agreement. A basin-average SST warming of approx 2.5 -- 3 K, but insignificant changes in Vb-frequency, mean intensity, and precipitation in the catchments are projected by the end of the 21st century. The North-Western Mediterranean SST, evaporation, and wind speed anomalies corresponding to the precipitation rankings over the three catchments & associated process chains differ between the evaluation & historical simulations. In the evaluation simulation, Vb-cyclone precipitation rankings correspond with SST, evaporation, and wind speed anomalies, while in the historical & the future simulation no such correspondence is seen. Especially the Adriatic & Ionian basins show no sensitivity to the Vb events in the EC-EARTH driven simulation. The change in the processes might be because of the emergence of simulation biases inherited from the driving EC-EARTH global simulation. Atmospheric Sciences Regional Coupled Climate Modeling Vb-Cyclones Precipitation Air-Sea Interactions Full Text Supplementary Files Supplementary.pdf Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-1139190","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":68031284,"identity":"492686f4-39b1-4c36-a7d6-ea8556950f53","order_by":0,"name":"Praveen Kumar 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This study explores the state \u0026amp; process chains linking the North-Western Mediterranean Sea and the Vb-event precipitation in Danube, Elbe, and Odra catchments in regional coupled atmosphere-ocean climate simulations with COSMO-CLM+NEMO.\nTwo high-resolution simulations, an evaluation simulation (1951-2005) downscaling the centennial ERA-20C reanalysis and a continuous simulation (historical 1951-2005 + RCP-8.5 future scenario 2006-2099) downscaling the EC-EARTH global climate RCP-8.5 projection are used for this purpose. Sea surface temperature (SST) validation with observations over the Mediterranean Sea reveals a cold bias (approx 1 -- 1.5 K) in the historical \u0026amp; evaluation simulations. There is a good agreement in mean annual Vb-cyclone frequency between the evaluation (9.7 events/year) and the historical (10.1 events/year) simulations. But, there are significant discrepancies in the seasonal cycle. The mean cyclone intensity measured with minimum central pressure, track density, and precipitation rankings in the catchments also show good agreement. A basin-average SST warming of approx 2.5 -- 3 K, but insignificant changes in Vb-frequency, mean intensity, and precipitation in the catchments are projected by the end of the 21st century. \nThe North-Western Mediterranean SST, evaporation, and wind speed anomalies corresponding to the precipitation rankings over the three catchments \u0026amp; associated process chains differ between the evaluation \u0026amp; historical simulations. In the evaluation simulation, Vb-cyclone precipitation rankings correspond with SST, evaporation, and wind speed anomalies, while in the historical \u0026amp; the future simulation no such correspondence is seen. Especially the Adriatic \u0026amp; Ionian basins show no sensitivity to the Vb events in the EC-EARTH driven simulation. The change in the processes might be because of the emergence of simulation biases inherited from the driving EC-EARTH global simulation.","manuscriptTitle":"Evaluation and Projection of Vb-Cyclones and Associated North-Western Mediterranean Sea State in Regional Coupled Climate Simulations","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2021-12-08 20:59:20","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-1139190/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"704519e9-2dba-49d7-b360-aeedf32162bb","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 8th, 2021","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":8984670,"name":"Atmospheric Sciences"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2022-03-15T15:03:03+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2021-12-08 20:59:20","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-1139190","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-1139190","identity":"rs-1139190","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"WrCJVZZCHTDjtuVLN7oU0","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}