Frequency and area affected by critical rainfall conditions triggering debris flows increase in a changing climate

Frequency and area affected by critical rainfall conditions triggering debris flows increase in a changing climate | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Frequency and area affected by critical rainfall conditions triggering debris flows increase in a changing climate Roland Kaitna, Matthias Schlögl, Benedikt Becsi, Harald Rieder, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6212867/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 07 Oct, 2025 Read the published version in Communications Earth & Environment → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Critical rainfall conditions for the initiation of debris flows are typically investigated in connection with landslides. Here, we approach this issue from the channel perspective. We derive and analyze critical rainfall conditions triggering debris flows and fluvial floods using hourly rainfall estimates based on radar-rain gauge data for over 3600 torrent events in Austria between 2003 and 2022, and assess their spatiotemporal changes in a future climate. We observe that the rainfall patterns leading to either process type are similar, but exhibit statistically significant differences. A general dependence of the magnitude or intensity of the triggering rainfall on the antecedent rainfall cannot be confirmed. In a warming climate, both the probability of occurrence and the affected area in Austria will increase for both process types and across all emission scenarios. However, these changes are not uniformly distributed throughout Austria. The results indicate a strong geomorphological control for debris-flow initiation and provide a basis for an improved adaptation and risk management of torrent processes in a changing climate. Earth and environmental sciences/Natural hazards Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences debris flow triggering rainfall climate change Eastern Alps Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 07 Oct, 2025 Read the published version in Communications Earth & Environment → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6212867","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":432108778,"identity":"f3a65eb6-f7cf-48cd-9de4-7c39a7bb9d61","order_by":0,"name":"Roland Kaitna","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAABBElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFAC5gYGBjYGAwZmEKfiAIMEYS2MMC0gPWcQWvBohWkBWcPYRoQW8/bGxs8FZQzG/O38xx78nHdHTnJGAuOHHwx2dbi0yJw52Cw94xyDmcRhZnbD3m3PjKUlEpglexiScdoiIZHYIM3bxmDDcJiZTYJ32+HEeRIJDNJAZ+LT0vwbpEUeqEXy7xywFubfDAz1+LS0gWwxMwBqkeZtOJw4WyKBDWjLYdxaeA62WfOckzA2PMxsJi1z7JmxZM/DNsseg+OSDbi0sDcfvs1TZmM47/zBZ5Jvau7ISRxPPnzjR0U1Py5bYDqROaCYMiCgYRSMglEwCkYBXgAAHqJLG317XHIAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"BOKU University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Roland","middleName":"","lastName":"Kaitna","suffix":""},{"id":432108779,"identity":"5965070b-34a7-4167-8973-e8441c40d4cd","order_by":1,"name":"Matthias Schlögl","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4357-523X","institution":"University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Matthias","middleName":"","lastName":"Schlögl","suffix":""},{"id":432108780,"identity":"b9bdaecd-089b-4e97-b496-e7a34e9621ae","order_by":2,"name":"Benedikt Becsi","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5659-1183","institution":"BOKU University, Institute of Meteorology and Climatology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Benedikt","middleName":"","lastName":"Becsi","suffix":""},{"id":432108781,"identity":"4ef20f6d-c096-478c-8b18-8bae8b7c3ee0","order_by":3,"name":"Harald Rieder","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Harald","middleName":"","lastName":"Rieder","suffix":""},{"id":432108782,"identity":"04867bfc-50c3-4b8c-9c53-e7a0373d2d4d","order_by":4,"name":"Herbert Formayer","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Herbert","middleName":"","lastName":"Formayer","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-03-12 14:20:31","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6212867/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6212867/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02760-w","type":"published","date":"2025-10-07T04:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":93009132,"identity":"6ecfdc8d-529d-46b0-8625-29486e894a6e","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-08 07:07:19","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":21147618,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File","description":"","filename":"TriggeringRainfallCC.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6212867/v1_covered_104f12e9-548a-486d-8dc8-e1c60bbbaecd.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Frequency and area affected by critical rainfall conditions triggering debris flows increase in a changing climate","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"debris flow, triggering rainfall, climate change, Eastern Alps","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6212867/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6212867/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"Critical rainfall conditions for the initiation of debris flows are typically investigated in connection with landslides. 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