International trade drives unequal impacts on Nature’s Contributions to People

International trade drives unequal impacts on Nature’s Contributions to People | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article International trade drives unequal impacts on Nature’s Contributions to People Ernest Asamoah, Brooke Williams, Keiichiro Kanemoto, Jonathan Rhodes This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8847736/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract International trade can have disproportionate impacts on nature, economies, and livelihoods. How international trade impacts Nature’s Contributions to People (NCP), the contributions of nature to people’s wellbeing, at fine spatial resolutions is unknown. Yet, this is critical for developing sustainable and equitable trade and land-use policy solutions. Here, we produce global estimates of how deforestation embodied in international trade in commodities degrades NCPs at a fine resolution, including pollination, water quality regulation, climate regulation, and biodiversity, between 2000 and 2015. Our study revealed previously unknown connections between local NCP change hotspots and consumption through international trade. We show that 15%–85% of the annual global losses of NCPs could be attributable to economically developed countries, representing a 0.4%-9.5% decrease relative to 2000. We find substantial spatial heterogeneity in NCP loss due to trade, with the greatest losses within countries that rely most heavily on sectors that depend on natural capital. Our results provide unprecedented insight into the pathways by which global trade impacts nature and people at fine resolutions, and the implications for who bears the costs and benefits of international trade. This should inform policies to promote more equitable trade and land-use outcomes. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental sciences/Environmental impact Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability Trade footprint deforestation equity ecosystem services carbon water regulation pollination biodiversity Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8847736","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":589386051,"identity":"8a41cfe8-9a7b-44f8-8d38-8ba6582049f9","order_by":0,"name":"Ernest Asamoah","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAwElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYLCCCgYGORB94AHRWs4wGBiDtSSQoiWxAcQgSgt//+GnGw7u+ZM+P+zwQ6AtdnK6DQS0SNxIM7tx4JlB7sbbaQZALcnGZgcIWXODwez2hwNALbMTQFoOJG4jpEX+/PFvNw4cMEg3nJ3+gTgtBgdyzEBaEuSlc4i0xfBGThlQi7HhBumcggMJBkT4Re788W1ALXLy8rPTN3/4UGEnR9j7CBeCSWKVg4B8AymqR8EoGAWjYEQBAOYFTnpLmKC1AAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0712-5642","institution":"Queensland University of Technology","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Ernest","middleName":"","lastName":"Asamoah","suffix":""},{"id":589386052,"identity":"be1efd6e-ead9-4e3a-bd78-e274a49d2004","order_by":1,"name":"Brooke Williams","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Newcastle University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Brooke","middleName":"","lastName":"Williams","suffix":""},{"id":589386053,"identity":"061822a3-bdb0-4929-a453-19ffd52812bb","order_by":2,"name":"Keiichiro Kanemoto","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0230-9020","institution":"Tohoku University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Keiichiro","middleName":"","lastName":"Kanemoto","suffix":""},{"id":589386054,"identity":"6cc32084-26fd-44c3-8add-4867ae657a66","order_by":3,"name":"Jonathan Rhodes","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Queensland University of Technology","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jonathan","middleName":"","lastName":"Rhodes","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-02-11 06:20:38","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8847736/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8847736/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":104403325,"identity":"c65d2c8e-72dc-4c37-bdea-7e48e6e39c2f","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-03-11 12:18:03","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1888691,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"mainpapernatsustain.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-8847736/v1_covered_742aa06c-3749-447a-ae94-5e999dca5de0.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"International trade drives unequal impacts on Nature’s Contributions to People","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Trade footprint, deforestation, equity, ecosystem services, carbon, water regulation, pollination, biodiversity","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8847736/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-8847736/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"International trade can have disproportionate impacts on nature, economies, and livelihoods. How international trade impacts Nature’s Contributions to People (NCP), the contributions of nature to people’s wellbeing, at fine spatial resolutions is unknown. Yet, this is critical for developing sustainable and equitable trade and land-use policy solutions. Here, we produce global estimates of how deforestation embodied in international trade in commodities degrades NCPs at a fine resolution, including pollination, water quality regulation, climate regulation, and biodiversity, between 2000 and 2015. Our study revealed previously unknown connections between local NCP change hotspots and consumption through international trade. We show that 15%–85% of the annual global losses of NCPs could be attributable to economically developed countries, representing a 0.4%-9.5% decrease relative to 2000. We find substantial spatial heterogeneity in NCP loss due to trade, with the greatest losses within countries that rely most heavily on sectors that depend on natural capital. 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