Tree canopy halves urban heat island effect globally but disproportionately benefits higher incomes and suburbs

Tree canopy halves urban heat island effect globally but disproportionately benefits higher incomes and suburbs | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Tree canopy halves urban heat island effect globally but disproportionately benefits higher incomes and suburbs Robert McDonald, TC Chakraborty, Theodore Endreny, Luke Parsons, and 2 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6982703/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 06 May, 2026 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Urban trees are proposed as a nature-based solution for urban heat island (UHI) mitigation. However, there has been no comprehensive global urban assessment of their ability to reduce air temperature (AT), with most multi-city estimates using instead land surface temperature. Here, we combine a global 1-km AT dataset with high-resolution land cover information to estimate the tree canopy cooling for 8,919 urban areas, housing 3.6 billion people. We find the tree canopy reduces summer AT by a population-weighted average of 0.17±0.03°C, but with substantial variation (0.0-2.7°C range). Models indicate tree canopy on average reduces wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 3.1x more than AT. Approximately 914 (805-1040 95% CI) million people experience a reduction of AT of 0.25°C or greater, with 203 (169-243) million experiencing at least 0.5°C reduction. Cooling mitigates an average of 48.6±1.3% of the UHI that would occur without urban tree canopy. However, cooling benefits are greater in areas where they are less needed: mesic climates, high-income countries, and suburban areas. Moreover, current cooling can only mitigate 10% (6.7-18%) of the median mid-century projected climate change increase. Expanding tree canopy in densely settled low-income urban areas will have the greatest value for local heat mitigation and climate adaptation. Biological sciences/Ecology/Ecosystem services Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Urban ecology Scientific community and society/Forestry Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change impacts Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files McDonaldetalTreecanopyhalvesUHIgloballySupplementaryInformationv4.pdf Supplementary info Dataandcodelink.pdf Article File - Data and code link nrsoftwarepolicyMcDonald.pdf Article File - Software policy nrreportingsummaryMcDonald.pdf Article File - Reporting Summary Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 06 May, 2026 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6982703","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":479744450,"identity":"90e81ff6-1b33-43f7-a297-42ea96f42147","order_by":0,"name":"Robert McDonald","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAyklEQVRIiWNgGAWjYFACHhDBDMINEh9I1MLYIDkjgVQt0jzEaDFv7z3AdKPGWs6c/WDjbdsfd+QZ2Hsfv8CnRebMuQTmnGPpxpY9ic3WOQnPDBt4jptZ4NMiIZFjwJzbcDhxw4HENumchMMJDBJpbAbEaTn/sE3agjQtN4C2MEC0MD/Aq4UH6heDGw+bLXvSDhu28Rxjw6eDQYK99wBzDjDEDM4nH7zxw+awPD97GzOhKGX/gcIFWsEmQUALJiBoyygYBaNgFIwsAACOL0VndhuuwAAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7273-6549","institution":"The Nature Conservancy in Europe","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Robert","middleName":"","lastName":"McDonald","suffix":""},{"id":479744451,"identity":"4877e8fc-58f9-44ef-8906-033e04b9cffd","order_by":1,"name":"TC Chakraborty","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Pacific Northwest National Laboratory","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"TC","middleName":"","lastName":"Chakraborty","suffix":""},{"id":479744452,"identity":"4dcc8a4a-b922-4bd1-8dce-ee3769d38428","order_by":2,"name":"Theodore Endreny","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1891-261X","institution":"Department of Environmental Resources Engineering, SUNY ESF, Syracuse, NY 13210, USA","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Theodore","middleName":"","lastName":"Endreny","suffix":""},{"id":479744453,"identity":"1eb49878-2f11-47e9-aca8-bd5277149da9","order_by":3,"name":"Luke Parsons","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"The Nature Conservancy","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Luke","middleName":"","lastName":"Parsons","suffix":""},{"id":479744454,"identity":"e0021c93-90a1-43db-9a28-a7ff2de76bfe","order_by":4,"name":"Mariami Marsagishvili","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"The Nature Conservancy in Europe","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Mariami","middleName":"","lastName":"Marsagishvili","suffix":""},{"id":479744455,"identity":"8bd4e429-dcec-486f-9a30-4aa82d3ef2b1","order_by":5,"name":"Manuel Esperon-Rodriguez","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3649-2134","institution":"Western Sydney University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Manuel","middleName":"","lastName":"Esperon-Rodriguez","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-06-26 10:55:14","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6982703/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6982703/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-71825-x","type":"published","date":"2026-05-06T04:00:00+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":108668241,"identity":"ddf9aa06-075b-407c-9cf1-4bc784c255a2","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-05-07 07:05:23","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":678208,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"McDonaldetalTreecanopyhalvesUHIgloballyv4.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6982703/v1_covered_8a0569d4-6711-400d-9682-feca3acd5fb2.pdf"},{"id":85987824,"identity":"27aedc0a-588c-4fc4-adaf-aceadba488fe","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-04 04:04:32","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":67781,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Supplementary info","description":"","filename":"McDonaldetalTreecanopyhalvesUHIgloballySupplementaryInformationv4.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6982703/v1/79a49c3cd06d40f8352dc1cc.pdf"},{"id":85987825,"identity":"d0d47c81-288a-4bd3-961c-810fc6d723fd","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-07-04 04:04:32","extension":"pdf","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":31216,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Article File - 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