Global Warming Will Drive Spatial Expansion of Prunus mira Koehn in Alpine Areas，Southeast Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

Abstract Global climate change exerts great effort for plants distributions. However the response of Prunus mira Koehn, one of the most important species for ecological protection in the southeast of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, to climate change remains unclear. To explore the ecological factors on the distribution of Prunus mira Koehn in context of global climate change, the MaxENT model is used to predict the suitable habitats for Prunus mira Koehn. Our study indicated that the distribution of Prunus mira Koehn is primarily influenced by temperature rather than precipitation, warming can facilitate the growth of Prunus mira Koehn. When the temperature seasonality (bio4) ranges from 134 to 576 and the mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11) ranges from − 2.6°C to 2.7°C, it is most conducive to the growth of Prunus mira Koehn. Among the four climate scenarios, the optimal habitat for Prunus mira Koehn is predominantly concentrated in river valley areas and is expected to expand into higher altitude regions, particularly in the north and southeast. SSP245 and SSP370 climate pathways are conducive to the growth and spatial expansion of Prunus mira Koehn. Our findings highlight the significant impact of temperature not precipitation on the distribution of Prunus mira Koehn, and this insight is crucial for the stability and conservation of this ecologically significant plant species.