Potential distribution prediction of Ceracris kiangsu Tsai in China

Abstract In order to find out the potential suitable areas of Ceracris Kiangsu Tsai in China, and do a good job in early monitoring. Based on 314 species distribution points of C.kiangsu which were obtained from Chinese herbaria, literatures and investigation, and data of three future climate scenarios presented by CMIP6, two niche models (Garp, Maxent) were used to predict the suitable area of C.kiangsu in China. The result shows that the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of C.kiangsu are precipitation of driest month (bio14) and min temperature of coldest month (bio6). No matter now and future, the potential distribution areas of C. kiangsu in China are mainly in the south of Qinling-Huaihe River. The southern part of Hubei, the western part of Jiangxi and the eastern part of Hunan are highly-suitable areas for C. kiangsu under current scenario. As the climate warms in the future scenarios, the southern part of Yunnan, the southeast of Sichuan and the southwest of Chongqing will also become highly-suitable areas. It can be seen that the local vegetation and climate conditions of these areas mentioned above are more suitable for the survival of C. kiangsu. It is recommended that the local forestry authorities strengthen the monitoring of bamboo forests to prevent the damage caused by the introduction of C. kiangsu.