Correlation Analysis of Malaria Cases and Meteorological Factors in Lagos State, Nigeria

Abstract BackgroundMalaria transmission affects malaria infection rates. There are several potential drivers of malaria transmission. A suitable meteorological factor such as rainfall, temperature, and relative humidity encourages the breeding of the vector. This improves the survival of the parasite in the host. The female Plasmodium falciparum plays a crucial role in the variability of malaria prevalence. Lagos State is a coastal malaria-endemic area in Nigeria. This study presents a correlation analysis of malaria cases and meteorological factors between the periods of January 2015 to April 2018 in Lagos state.MethodsThe study was a secondary data analysis of meteorological variables and records of malaria cases reported by health facilities in Lagos state. We accessed weather variables through free access “weather underground.com” a meteorological data sharing service system (MDSSS). The MDSSS provides real-time online weather information from four meteorological monitoring stations in Lagos state. We accessed the malaria cases through the district health information system 2 databases. It is used to report cases of malaria by all the private and public health facilities in the state. We performed the correlation analyses to show the relationship between temperature, humidity, rainfall, and malaria cases at a 5% level of significance. We analysed data using the statistical package for social sciences version 25.ResultsMalaria cases peaked between the period of July to November 2016 and the period of April to May 2017 and declined between March to May 2017. The temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall showed a positive correlation with malaria cases. The temperature is most correlated with the occurrence of malaria cases (r = 0.65, p< 0.02).ConclusionThis correlation analysis provides an approach for studying the impact of meteorological variability on the prevalence of malaria cases. This can help to forecast the malaria epidemic while preparing for the elimination of malaria in Lagos state.