Atmospheric Carbon-dioxide Concentration as Fuel Gauge

Atmospheric Carbon-dioxide Concentration as Fuel Gauge | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Atmospheric Carbon-dioxide Concentration as Fuel Gauge Balázs M. Fekete This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5486010/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 25 Apr, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted 10 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Climate change skeptics like to point to the high atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentration in paleo records as a “ proof ” of the exaggeration of the climate change agenda. Instead of debunking these arguments, the present paper represents a thought experiment that considers the carbon-dioxide concentration in the past as a proxy for fossil fuel reserves and interprets the contemporary rise in carbon-dioxide concentration as a fuel gauge to estimate the exhaustion of the remaining fossil fuel reserves under different energy consumption scenarios. The resulting conclusion is that to dangers of exhausting the remaining fossil fuel resources are likely in par with the anticipated adverse effects of climate change and should convince even climate change skeptics that the transition to non-fossil energy sources is inevitable and urgent. The presented analysis actually goes further than the currently adopted “ net-zero ” ambitions and demonstrate that there is no room for compromise and the transition has to be “ truly zero ” use of fossil fuels. Accounting gimmicks like carbon trading or carbon capture and sequestration are just as unsustainable as the continued reliance on fossil fuels. Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Carbon capture and storage Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy storage Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Fossil fuels Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Palaeoclimate Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 25 Apr, 2025 Read the published version in Scientific Reports → Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 11 Mar, 2025 Reviews received at journal 17 Dec, 2024 Reviews received at journal 06 Dec, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 06 Dec, 2024 Reviewers agreed at journal 06 Dec, 2024 Reviewers invited by journal 06 Dec, 2024 Editor assigned by journal 06 Dec, 2024 Editor invited by journal 03 Dec, 2024 Submission checks completed at journal 30 Nov, 2024 First submitted to journal 19 Nov, 2024 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5486010","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":419176334,"identity":"0b1445d1-5dcb-4122-a325-9c3f1488b894","order_by":0,"name":"Balázs M. Fekete","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA6ElEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACA+YDzCBaDkVUAq8WtgSglgQGY9K1JDYQrcWcjfmwwccfNun97WePSTDUHM4zOMB88DYPHi2WbWzJiTMS0nJnnMlLk2A4drjY4ABbsjU+LQb3e4wP8yQczt0gwWMmwdhwOHHDAR4zabxajvF/Pvwn4X+6AUIL/zcCWniYkxkSDiQgaeFhw6sF6Bdjw560ZMMZZ3KMLRKOpSfOPMxmbDkHjxZgiD2W+GFjJ8/ffsbwxoca68S+480Pb7zBowUZsEgkAEmFw0QqBwHmDyBSvoEELaNgFIyCUTAiAADfC0pfPRKWCgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"City College of New York","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Balázs","middleName":"M.","lastName":"Fekete","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-11-19 20:08:32","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5486010/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5486010/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[{"content":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-98459-1","type":"published","date":"2025-04-25T15:57:09+00:00"}],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":81569541,"identity":"6d8be337-8c26-471d-ae0f-4a7af0f6d547","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-04-28 16:06:16","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":519394,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"20241129NatureSciRepCO2FuelGauge.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5486010/v1_covered_212f8a41-b833-427e-880b-5694b493328d.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Atmospheric Carbon-dioxide Concentration as Fuel Gauge","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":true,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5486010/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5486010/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eClimate change skeptics like to point to the high atmospheric carbon-dioxide concentration in paleo records as a \u0026ldquo;\u003cem\u003eproof\u003c/em\u003e\u0026rdquo; of the exaggeration of the climate change agenda. Instead of debunking these arguments, the present paper represents a thought experiment that considers the carbon-dioxide concentration in the past as a proxy for fossil fuel reserves and interprets the contemporary rise in carbon-dioxide concentration as a fuel gauge to estimate the exhaustion of the remaining fossil fuel reserves under different energy consumption scenarios.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe resulting conclusion is that to dangers of exhausting the remaining fossil fuel resources are likely in par with the anticipated adverse effects of climate change and should convince even climate change skeptics that the transition to non-fossil energy sources is inevitable and urgent. The presented analysis actually goes further than the currently adopted \u0026ldquo;\u003cem\u003enet-zero\u003c/em\u003e\u0026rdquo; ambitions and demonstrate that there is no room for compromise and the transition has to be \u0026ldquo;\u003cem\u003etruly zero\u003c/em\u003e\u0026rdquo; use of fossil fuels. Accounting gimmicks like carbon trading or carbon capture and sequestration are just as unsustainable as the continued reliance on fossil fuels.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Atmospheric Carbon-dioxide Concentration as Fuel Gauge","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-03-07 13:25:23","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5486010/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2025-03-11T07:50:46+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2024-12-17T13:24:49+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2024-12-06T17:04:56+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"337243922055068176754385404163376022101","date":"2024-12-06T17:02:51+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"115829745365231290051792212742419418862","date":"2024-12-06T16:32:36+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2024-12-06T12:56:20+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2024-12-06T12:52:50+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvited","content":"","date":"2024-12-03T05:12:30+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2024-11-30T05:45:48+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Scientific Reports","date":"2024-11-19T20:06:57+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"scientific-reports","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"scirep","sideBox":"Learn more about [Scientific Reports](http://www.nature.com/srep/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Scientific Reports","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"Scientific Reports","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"fd7a4908-1573-4ce8-8150-98c0502155d1","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 7th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"published-in-journal","subjectAreas":[{"id":44696035,"name":"Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Carbon capture and storage"},{"id":44696036,"name":"Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Energy storage"},{"id":44696037,"name":"Physical sciences/Energy science and technology/Fossil fuels"},{"id":44696038,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Palaeoclimate"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-04-28T15:59:34+00:00","versionOfRecord":{"articleIdentity":"rs-5486010","link":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-98459-1","journal":{"identity":"scientific-reports","isVorOnly":false,"title":"Scientific Reports"},"publishedOn":"2025-04-25 15:57:09","publishedOnDateReadable":"April 25th, 2025"},"versionCreatedAt":"2025-03-07 13:25:23","video":"","vorDoi":"10.1038/s41598-025-98459-1","vorDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-98459-1","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-5486010","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-5486010","identity":"rs-5486010","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}