Spring greening reduces autumnal runoff across high northern latitudes

Spring greening reduces autumnal runoff across high northern latitudes | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Biological Sciences - Article Spring greening reduces autumnal runoff across high northern latitudes Yongshuo Fu, Shouzhi Chen, Philippe Ciais, Marcos Fernández-Martínez, and 6 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-9131543/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Spring greening increasing leaf area has strengthened vegetation transpiration and increased the risk of carry-over summer soil moisture depletion across the Northern Hemisphere ( > 45° N) 1-4 . The persistence in Autumn and impact on runoff of these effects, however, remain poorly quantified 5,6 . We combined satellite-derived vegetation indices, runoff observations from 297 watersheds, and experiments using the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model, to demonstrate that spring greening reduced autumnal runoff by an average of 1.88-7.34% relative to the baseline from 1982 to 2022, through cross-seasonal carry over effects (CSE) where vegetation growth in one season reduces freshwater availability in subsequent seasons. The CSEs lasted longer in regions dominated by mixed or evergreen forests (until November) than in regions with green vegetation in summer (until October), primarily due to longer foliar longevity. Our findings underscore the need to integrate cross-seasonal interactions between vegetation and hydrology in assessing climate change impacts on water availability and in the planning of sustainable water resources. They also suggest that amplified soil drying in autumn may accelerate the transition of high-latitude ecosystems from carbon sinks to sources. Biological sciences/Ecology/Climate-change ecology/Phenology Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Hydrology Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Supplementarymaterial.pdf Spring greening reduces autumnal runoff across high northern latitudes Authors Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-9131543","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Biological Sciences - Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":609584080,"identity":"bba8300a-cd14-47dd-8edc-1aa0d38b088c","order_by":0,"name":"Yongshuo Fu","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAoUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDAC5gOMjyGsBGK1sCUwG5OshU2aNC0Gx3jMqgt3HGbgZ88xYPi5g0gtt2eeOcwg2fPGgLH3DDFa7veY3eZtO8xgcCPHgJmxjUhbikFa7EnSwgy2RYJYLZLH2IqlZ7al80iceVZwsJcYLXzHmDd+LmyzluNvT9744CcxWhQOQGgeEHGACA0MDPINRCkbBaNgFIyCEQ0A8ugx4sg3vrcAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9761-5292","institution":"Beijing Normal University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Yongshuo","middleName":"","lastName":"Fu","suffix":""},{"id":609584081,"identity":"7a4fbfda-a615-4274-aa30-69d9a72e1ae1","order_by":1,"name":"Shouzhi Chen","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Shouzhi","middleName":"","lastName":"Chen","suffix":""},{"id":609584082,"identity":"89298e8f-c858-4a9e-8212-6de44e25b608","order_by":2,"name":"Philippe Ciais","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8560-4943","institution":"CEA CNRS UVSQ, Centre d'Etudes Orme des Merisiers","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Philippe","middleName":"","lastName":"Ciais","suffix":""},{"id":609584083,"identity":"3d6c1cd8-2599-4ca6-a3e5-16c3433b8bb0","order_by":3,"name":"Marcos Fernández-Martínez","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"CREAF","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Marcos","middleName":"","lastName":"Fernández-Martínez","suffix":""},{"id":609584084,"identity":"e1bb9695-0577-46f7-9c28-61bcd1060da2","order_by":4,"name":"Zhenhong Hu","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Northwest A\u0026F University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zhenhong","middleName":"","lastName":"Hu","suffix":""},{"id":609584085,"identity":"37f9d921-4783-4a78-bfc9-458504e1e644","order_by":5,"name":"Zitong Jia","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Beijing Normal University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zitong","middleName":"","lastName":"Jia","suffix":""},{"id":609584086,"identity":"5b9e11ae-a914-49aa-aaa6-5dcdbacc5a7d","order_by":6,"name":"Xu Lian","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1428-3529","institution":"Peking University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xu","middleName":"","lastName":"Lian","suffix":""},{"id":609584087,"identity":"4bf4890b-57e0-44d3-a25d-7c3db06b1973","order_by":7,"name":"Josep Peñuelas","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7215-0150","institution":"CREAF-CSIC","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Josep","middleName":"","lastName":"Peñuelas","suffix":""},{"id":609584088,"identity":"d6429018-237e-477c-a7eb-3c8fdc7d1db3","order_by":8,"name":"Chong-Yu Xu","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4826-5350","institution":"University of Oslo","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Chong-Yu","middleName":"","lastName":"Xu","suffix":""},{"id":609584089,"identity":"48914fec-f390-4b37-98f4-c81a091fbbff","order_by":9,"name":"Jing Tang","email":"","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7961-8214","institution":"University of Copenhagen","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jing","middleName":"","lastName":"Tang","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2026-03-16 00:00:11","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9131543/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9131543/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":106403036,"identity":"05b8ea7c-cb5a-4bb0-855c-c439c13f9b1c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-08 09:13:26","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1274628,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"MSSpringgreeningreducesautumnrunoffacrossnorthernhighlatitudes.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9131543/v1_covered_c8889ab9-7ea7-458a-86ca-172702a0155b.pdf"},{"id":106197455,"identity":"84ef7ae2-1663-4d30-b3d9-3b8b66f2a1b0","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-04-06 01:02:45","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":9626603,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"Spring greening reduces autumnal runoff across high northern latitudes Authors","description":"","filename":"Supplementarymaterial.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-9131543/v1/4fb49e0b9313c2114b3e0f60.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"There is \u003cb\u003eNO\u003c/b\u003e Competing Interest.","formattedTitle":"Spring greening reduces autumnal runoff across high northern latitudes","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-portfolio","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Portfolio","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":false,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9131543/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-9131543/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eSpring greening increasing leaf area has strengthened vegetation transpiration and increased the risk of carry-over summer soil moisture depletion across the Northern Hemisphere ( \u0026gt; 45° N)\u003csup\u003e1-4\u003c/sup\u003e. The persistence in Autumn and impact on runoff of these effects, however, remain poorly quantified\u003csup\u003e5,6\u003c/sup\u003e. We combined satellite-derived vegetation indices, runoff observations from 297 watersheds, and experiments using the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model, to demonstrate that spring greening reduced autumnal runoff by an average of 1.88-7.34% relative to the baseline from 1982 to 2022, through cross-seasonal carry over effects (CSE) where vegetation growth in one season reduces freshwater availability in subsequent seasons. The CSEs lasted longer in regions dominated by mixed or evergreen forests (until November) than in regions with green vegetation in summer (until October), primarily due to longer foliar longevity. Our findings underscore the need to integrate cross-seasonal interactions between vegetation and hydrology in assessing climate change impacts on water availability and in the planning of sustainable water resources. They also suggest that amplified soil drying in autumn may accelerate the transition of high-latitude ecosystems from carbon sinks to sources.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Spring greening reduces autumnal runoff across high northern latitudes","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-04-06 01:02:41","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-9131543/v1","editorialEvents":[],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"nature-climate-change","isNatureJournal":true,"hasQc":false,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"nclimate","sideBox":"Learn more about [Nature Climate Change](http://www.nature.com/nclimate/)","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"","title":"Nature Climate Change","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"ejp","reportingPortfolio":"Nature Research","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"77fbbac6-e1e3-4001-a861-d471da08a721","owner":[],"postedDate":"April 6th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":64867182,"name":"Biological sciences/Ecology/Climate-change ecology/Phenology"},{"id":64867183,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Hydrology"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-06T01:02:41+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-04-06 01:02:41","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-9131543","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-9131543","identity":"rs-9131543","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}