Estimating Global, High-resolution Onsite Building Emissions

Estimating Global, High-resolution Onsite Building Emissions | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Estimating Global, High-resolution Onsite Building Emissions Paul J. Markakis, Trey M. Gowdy, Jordan M. Malof, Zion Sheng, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6959549/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 9 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Buildings account for a significant portion of global GHG emissions, yet the building sector lacks high spatial and temporal resolution emissions estimates that could help drive emissions reduction actions. To address this limitation we propose several methodologies for super-resolving lower-resolution GHG estimates. To examine our proposed disaggregation methods, we utilize the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) v8.0 gridded emissions data – which exist at 0.1-degree-by-0.1-degree (approximately 11km-by-11km) spatial resolution – and subdivide those emissions data into residential and non-residential subsectors to account for critical differences in energy consumption behavior. EDGAR v8.0 gridded data are provided annually from 2015 to 2023, which we spatially super-resolve to a 30-arcsecond (approximately 1km-by-1km) grid and temporally super-resolve using heating degree days to allocate the time-varying portion of emissions at quarterly intervals. To evaluate the accuracy of our proposed disaggregation methods we use our spatially super-resolved gridded emissions data from EDGAR v8.0 and estimate municipal-level direct onsite CO 2 emissions from buildings across 19,998 municipalities for which emissions data are available. Our spatial super-resolution method provides a two-order-of-magnitude increase in spatial resolution compared to an 0.1-degree-by-0.1-degree grid cell while decreasing the weighted absolute percentage error from small to large cities as compared to using unmodified EDGAR v8.0 data. These data allow for municipal-level analysis of onsite building emissions for any municipality in the world, revealing that 10% of global direct onsite building emissions are concentrated within only 38 Functional Urban Areas (i.e., a city and the surrounding commuting area) and 25% of these emissions are concentrated within 259 Functional Urban Areas, globally. These municipality-level observations can inform prioritization of subnational emissions reduction actions, particularly in regions that cannot access other forms of emissions inventories. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing/Computational science Full Text Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Supplementary Files EstimatingGlobalHighresolutionOnsiteBuildingEmissionsSupplementaryMaterials20250623.docx Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Revision requested 17 Mar, 2026 Reviews received at journal 23 Feb, 2026 Reviews received at journal 12 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 02 Feb, 2026 Reviewers agreed at journal 01 Feb, 2026 Reviewers invited by journal 20 Aug, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 26 Jun, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 25 Jun, 2025 First submitted to journal 23 Jun, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6959549","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":584418836,"identity":"82e561d4-69d5-49bb-becc-e53484a5f8f9","order_by":0,"name":"Paul J. Markakis","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA9UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHACxgMgUoKBjeEAQwUzkAEEPAT0IGk5Q6oWBsY2IrSYs58xOMCYY5cv2X4s8eDPedaJM9sbGB+8bcOtxbInB6hlW7LlbJ60A4d5t6UnzuY5wGw4F48WgwNgLcwGcgzpDYcZtx1OnCeRwCbNi0/L+TcgLfUGcvzPGw7+nAPUIv+A/TdeLTfAthw2kJZIO3CAt+Fw4mxgQDDj02I541nBgcRtxw0kZzxLOMxzLN14Zk9is+Scc7i1mPMnb3zwcVu1gcT5NOOPP2qsZWccP3zww5syPA4DEQmoYowNuNXDtIyCUTAKRsEowAsAW6tWnXWSI/oAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Duke University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Paul","middleName":"J.","lastName":"Markakis","suffix":""},{"id":584418837,"identity":"3413e355-2bb2-4a61-84a2-d7ab36b2a67f","order_by":1,"name":"Trey M. Gowdy","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Duke University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Trey","middleName":"M.","lastName":"Gowdy","suffix":""},{"id":584418838,"identity":"d08c66d4-5579-4478-83b2-c1d27a9a9ffd","order_by":2,"name":"Jordan M. Malof","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Missouri","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jordan","middleName":"M.","lastName":"Malof","suffix":""},{"id":584418839,"identity":"dd0f6a98-cefe-46d9-bd51-ebdc5fc9ccac","order_by":3,"name":"Zion Sheng","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"University of Missouri","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Zion","middleName":"","lastName":"Sheng","suffix":""},{"id":584418840,"identity":"1c7661fe-fed5-49f3-a992-0aa6c5e46f04","order_by":4,"name":"Brittany Lancellotti","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Duke University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Brittany","middleName":"","lastName":"Lancellotti","suffix":""},{"id":584418841,"identity":"fa159253-c5a9-47cb-ba39-5ba3afb48b27","order_by":5,"name":"Leslie Collins","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Duke University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Leslie","middleName":"","lastName":"Collins","suffix":""},{"id":584418842,"identity":"8984b7a6-c40f-49e5-9bb5-f76cc80e634c","order_by":6,"name":"Aaron Davitt","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Climate TRACE","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Aaron","middleName":"","lastName":"Davitt","suffix":""},{"id":584418843,"identity":"d5044cf4-f6b8-474f-b2df-4def7bf91137","order_by":7,"name":"Kyle Bradbury","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Duke University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Kyle","middleName":"","lastName":"Bradbury","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-06-23 19:53:11","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6959549/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6959549/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":101881079,"identity":"7d701822-671e-461c-a8dd-72680e7c2321","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-04 15:09:22","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":1460271,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"EstimatingGlobalHighresolutionOnsiteBuildingEmissions20250623FINAL.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6959549/v1_covered_2dcb52c3-5655-475e-a243-1b4fc4ba0691.pdf"},{"id":101803070,"identity":"a7331439-5877-42e7-a59e-30b81a8ff26b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2026-02-03 18:45:45","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":5180221,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"EstimatingGlobalHighresolutionOnsiteBuildingEmissionsSupplementaryMaterials20250623.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6959549/v1/51a947fd225b6f3dc9ffa7bc.docx"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"Estimating Global, High-resolution Onsite Building Emissions","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"npj-urban-sustainability","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"npjurbansustain","sideBox":"Learn more about [npj Urban Sustainability](https://www.nature.com/npjurbansustain/)","snPcode":"42949","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/42949/3","title":"npj Urban Sustainability","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"NPJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6959549/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6959549/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eBuildings account for a significant portion of global GHG emissions, yet the building sector lacks high spatial and temporal resolution emissions estimates that could help drive emissions reduction actions. To address this limitation we propose several methodologies for super-resolving lower-resolution GHG estimates. To examine our proposed disaggregation methods, we utilize the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) v8.0 gridded emissions data \u0026ndash; which exist at 0.1-degree-by-0.1-degree (approximately 11km-by-11km) spatial resolution \u0026ndash; and subdivide those emissions data into residential and non-residential subsectors to account for critical differences in energy consumption behavior. EDGAR v8.0 gridded data are provided annually from 2015 to 2023, which we spatially super-resolve to a 30-arcsecond (approximately 1km-by-1km) grid and temporally super-resolve using heating degree days to allocate the time-varying portion of emissions at quarterly intervals. To evaluate the accuracy of our proposed disaggregation methods we use our spatially super-resolved gridded emissions data from EDGAR v8.0 and estimate municipal-level direct onsite CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e emissions from buildings across 19,998 municipalities for which emissions data are available. Our spatial super-resolution method provides a two-order-of-magnitude increase in spatial resolution compared to an 0.1-degree-by-0.1-degree grid cell while decreasing the weighted absolute percentage error from small to large cities as compared to using unmodified EDGAR v8.0 data. These data allow for municipal-level analysis of onsite building emissions for any municipality in the world, revealing that 10% of global direct onsite building emissions are concentrated within only 38 Functional Urban Areas (i.e., a city and the surrounding commuting area) and 25% of these emissions are concentrated within 259 Functional Urban Areas, globally. These municipality-level observations can inform prioritization of subnational emissions reduction actions, particularly in regions that cannot access other forms of emissions inventories.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Estimating Global, High-resolution Onsite Building Emissions","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-02-03 18:45:40","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6959549/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"decision","content":"Revision requested","date":"2026-03-18T00:16:32+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-02-23T17:53:28+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2026-02-12T14:42:31+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"99326747468736978647427063021329673847","date":"2026-02-02T14:27:57+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"315642920592780049959488498511741980077","date":"2026-02-01T17:58:57+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-08-21T02:13:41+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-06-26T07:54:52+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-06-25T14:42:30+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"npj Urban Sustainability","date":"2025-06-23T19:42:04+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"npj-urban-sustainability","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"npjurbansustain","sideBox":"Learn more about [npj Urban Sustainability](https://www.nature.com/npjurbansustain/)","snPcode":"42949","submissionUrl":"https://submission.springernature.com/new-submission/42949/3","title":"npj Urban Sustainability","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"stoa","reportingPortfolio":"NPJ","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"98f3108d-8f41-4a45-850b-0bdd30732427","owner":[],"postedDate":"February 3rd, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[{"id":62170277,"name":"Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change"},{"id":62170278,"name":"Physical sciences/Mathematics and computing/Computational science"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-04-12T15:53:07+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-02-03 18:45:40","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6959549","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6959549","identity":"rs-6959549","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}