Improved prediction of bacterial CRISPRi guide efficiency from depletion screens through mixed-effect modeling and data integration

CRISPR interference (CRISPRi), the targeting of a catalytically dead Cas protein to block transcription, is the leading technique to silence gene expression in bacteria. However, design rules for CRISPRi remain poorly defined, limiting predictable design for gene interrogation, pathway manipulation, and high-throughput screens. Here we develop a best-in-class prediction algorithm for guide silencing efficiency by systematically investigating factors influencing guide depletion in multiple genome-wide essentiality screens, with the surprising discovery that gene-specific features such as transcriptional activity substantially impact prediction of guide activity. Accounting for these features as part of algorithm development allowed us to develop a mixed-effect random forest regression model that provides better estimates of guide efficiency than existing methods, as demonstrated in an independent saturating screen. We further applied methods from explainable AI to extract interpretable design rules from the model, such as sequence preferences in the vicinity of the PAM distinct from those previously described for genome engineering applications. Our approach provides a blueprint for the development of predictive models for CRISPR technologies where only indirect measurements of guide activity are available.