The Gulf of California Under Different Climate Change Scenarios: A Hydrodynamic Approach

This study examines the hydrodynamic conditions of the Gulf of California under three climate change scenarios—SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5—projected from 2015 to 2100 using the CNRM-CM6-1-HR global climate model. It evaluates changes in the annual and interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST), ocean circulation, and key dynamic forcing mechanisms. The results reveal a general warming trend across the Gulf, characterized by an increased frequency of extreme heat events and a prolonged summer season. The Great Islands region emerges as the most resilient to climate change, with tidal forces remaining the dominant hydrodynamic driver. In contrast, the southern Gulf—from the mid-Gulf boundary to the entrance—is identified as the most vulnerable area, experiencing the highest number of extreme events and a more significant reduction in wind speed. This decline is particularly critical, as it affects essential oceanographic processes such as upwelling.