Insights into the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium: a longitudinal sensitivity analysis

Insights into the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium: a longitudinal sensitivity analysis | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Insights into the role of children in the COVID-19 pandemic in Belgium: a longitudinal sensitivity analysis Leonardo Angeli, Constantino Caetano, Nicolas Franco, Pietro Coletti, and 6 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4324206/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 05 Mar, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Understanding the evolving role of different age groups in virus transmission dynamics is essential for informed pandemic management. This study delves into the age-related transmission patterns of SARS-CoV-2 in Belgium from November 2020 to February 2022. We employed a next-generation matrix approach, integrating longitudinal social contact data and numerical simulations of the evolving population susceptibility. A perturbation analysis of the effective reproduction number (Rt ) underscored the age-specific transmission patterns. From November to December 2020, adults aged [18,60) were main contributors to Rt (≈ 78%), with children aged [0,12) having a marginal role (≈ 3.7%). This pattern shifted between January and March 2021, coinciding with in-person education resumption and the Alpha variant emergence; children’s contribution to Rt increased to ≈ 38%. Stringent measures in March 2021 significantly reduced transmission levels, substantially downsizing the role of the [18,30) age group. Following the summer school break, in September-October 2021, we observed a notable resurgence in children’s contribution to Rt . Our findings highlight the noteworthy and varying influence of the [0,12) age group on SARS-CoV-2 transmission, offering insights to design nuanced pandemic responses, e.g., that balance public health needs with socio-educational implications of interventions like extended school closures. Overall, this study demonstrates the effectiveness of our methodology in uncovering age-specific transmission patterns in the study of infectious disease spread. Health sciences/Diseases/Infectious diseases/Viral infection Biological sciences/Computational biology and bioinformatics/Statistical methods Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 05 Mar, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4324206","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":297653226,"identity":"b7c34516-5a25-4b6e-aeea-3d8f5c0d1482","order_by":0,"name":"Leonardo 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This study delves into the age-related transmission patterns of SARS-CoV-2 in Belgium from November\r\n2020 to February 2022. We employed a next-generation matrix approach, integrating longitudinal social contact data and\r\nnumerical simulations of the evolving population susceptibility. A perturbation analysis of the effective reproduction number\r\n(Rt ) underscored the age-specific transmission patterns. From November to December 2020, adults aged [18,60) were main\r\ncontributors to Rt (≈ 78%), with children aged [0,12) having a marginal role (≈ 3.7%). This pattern shifted between January and\r\nMarch 2021, coinciding with in-person education resumption and the Alpha variant emergence; children’s contribution to Rt\r\nincreased to ≈ 38%. Stringent measures in March 2021 significantly reduced transmission levels, substantially downsizing\r\nthe role of the [18,30) age group. 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