Early life factors associated with childhood trajectories of violence among the Birth to Twenty-Plus Cohort in Soweto, South Africa

Violence against children (VAC) has devastating and long-term negative consequences on individuals’ and society’s health, social and economic well-being. There is limited research on the life course experience of VAC, especially in Africa. This study aimed to identify sub-groups of physical & sexual violence victimization patterns separately in childhood, and evaluate early life factors predicting violence trajectories. This study used data from ages 5 to 18 years from the ongoing prospective Birth to Twenty Plus cohort (Bt20+). Children with data on physical and sexual violence in at least 2-time points between 5 and 18 years were included in the analyses. Group-based trajectory modelling was employed to identify groups of children with similar patterns of violence over time, while multivariable logistic regression was used to identify early life factors associated with violence trajectory group membership. Separately, two trajectory groups of physical violence (adolescent limited (65.1%) and chronic increasing (34.9%)) and sexual violence (adolescent limited (74.1%) and late increasing (25.9%)) victimization were identified. Early life factors associated with a higher risk of chronic increasing trajectory group membership, after adjusting for covariates, were being male (aOR 1.67, 95% CI 1.31; 2.10) and having a mother with at least secondary education compared to higher education (aOR 1.73, 95% CI 1.08; 2.76). In addition, residing in middle, compared to low, socioeconomic households (aOR 0.68, 95% CI 0.50; 0.92) was protective against membership in this group. Residing in high compared to low socioeconomic households, was the only early life factor with marginally significant (aOR 0.63, 95% CI 0.42; 0.95) association with membership in the late-increasing sexual violence victimization trajectory group. In conclusion, children follow different violence victimization trajectories over childhood. Identifying early life factors predicting violence trajectories provides key prevention intervention areas that can mitigate children’s violence experience.