The "Seesaw Effect" and "Butterfly Effect" in Climate Change

The "Seesaw Effect" and "Butterfly Effect" in Climate Change | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The "Seesaw Effect" and "Butterfly Effect" in Climate Change Haiyan Dai This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7814370/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 6 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Based on currently observed changes in surface and upper-air temperatures, this paper elaborates on two significant theoretical perspectives in climate change: ①The "Seesaw Effect": Continuous carbon and heat emissions from mid- to high-latitude regions in the Northern Hemisphere drive atmospheric carbon concentrations in polar regions and the Southern Hemisphere through atmospheric circulation and seasonal vegetation adjustments, thereby causing widespread warming of the global troposphere. ② The "Butterfly Effect": Regardless of the geographical location, any increase in carbon and heat emissions that elevates tropospheric temperatures will inevitably lead to amplified warming in polar regions, with the reverse scenario also holding true. Climate fluctuations between warmth and cold always initiate from the poles and extend towards mid- and low latitudes, representing an inherent pattern of climate. Deviating from the essence of this pattern and overly focusing on the influencing factors of the phenomenon offers limited value for a scientific understanding of climate change. Climate Change Seesaw Effect Butterfly Effect Inverse Principle Natural Regulation Theory Figures Figure 1 Introduction Currently, numerous climate studies are grounded in the reality of global warming, with research efforts predominantly focused on regional changes or specific climate systems. Few studies have taken a step back to examine the intrinsic patterns of climate change beyond the confines of Earth's weather systems. Human activities, particularly carbon emissions, contribute to the warming of the Earth's surface and troposphere, with the most pronounced changes in CO 2 levels observed in the Northern Hemisphere. Through atmospheric circulation and seasonal vegetation changes, these emissions elevate temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere and polar regions. Although the heating effect of surface carbon emissions on the troposphere is relatively minor compared to the north-south migration of solar radiation, even these subtle changes can lead to continuous warming of the troposphere and influence global temperatures through the "seesaw effect" in the Northern Hemisphere. From the perspective of upper-atmosphere temperature anomalies, weather systems influence seasonal temperature variations at the regional level, while the long-term average warmth or coolness of the troposphere determines the Earth's climate. Overall increases or decreases in tropospheric temperature result in amplified warming or cooling at the poles. The polar amplification effect represents an inherent pattern of Earth's climate, with climate fluctuations between warmth and cold serving as the fundamental cause of this effect, mediated through radiative forcing. Atmospheric circulation, winds, ocean currents, and various weather systems are all superimposed disturbances on climate change, which can be understood as movements generated to balance surface temperatures due to uneven solar radiation absorption by the Earth. These movements do not inherently cause global warming; rather, it is the warming that alters these movements. Based on the facts of climate change, this paper proposes the concepts of the "seesaw effect" and the "butterfly effect", which hold significant importance for a scientific understanding of the intrinsic patterns of climate. Research Methodology 1.1 Data Sources The data was obtained from the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Analysis System of the National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration. The NCEP reanalysis monthly data was sourced from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) dataset, with geographical coverage of -90 ~ 90°N and 0 ~ 357.5°E, containing 73×144 grid points. 1.2 Data Description Annual data were derived from the aforementioned datasets. The physical quantity analyzed was air temperature, with focus on surface 2m temperature and temperatures at 850-hPa, pressure levels. The study region covered the entire globe, using historical anomaly statistical methods and equidistant cylindrical projection for spatial distribution mapping. Two Effects in Climate Change 2.1 The "Seesaw Effect" In nature, the process of carbon emissions is often accompanied by heat emissions. Carbon contributes to the increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration, while heat leads to a rise in atmospheric temperature (DAI,2004). For human society, this mainly involves the conversion of carbon-based energy. The seasonal north-south movement of the sun serves as the primary heat source for the Earth's atmosphere. Meanwhile, with the global population boom, carbon and heat emissions from human activities on the Earth's surface have been continuously increasing. Although these emissions are relatively weak compared to solar radiation, their persistent and subtle changes keep heating the troposphere, resulting in significant climate changes in the densely populated Northern Hemisphere. From the global carbon emission map, industrial CO₂ emission trend charts, and global CO₂ animations ( https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends ; https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/ff.html ), it can be observed that carbon emissions in the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (the world's major carbon emission areas) continuously elevate the atmospheric carbon concentration in the polar regions and the Southern Hemisphere through atmospheric circulation and seasonal vegetation regulation( https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/history .). This, in turn, causes a widespread warming of the global troposphere. The process by which the Northern Hemisphere drives up temperatures in the polar regions and the Southern Hemisphere is referred to as the "seesaw effect" in the context of climate change. Despite the regulating effects of vegetation and seasons, climate changes in the high-carbon-emitting Northern Hemisphere occur significantly earlier and exhibit stronger characteristics compared to those in the Southern Hemisphere. 2.2 The "Butterfly Effect" The global climate's warmth or coldness can be represented by the temperature of the atmospheric troposphere. An increase in tropospheric temperature leads to a disproportionately greater warming in the polar regions (Screen JA, 2010; Serreze M C 2011)and vice versa (Fig. 1 ). Both warming and cooling spread from the polar regions to the mid-to-high latitudes and low latitudes. There are significant regional differences in the magnitude of surface temperature increases or decreases, demonstrating a notable latitudinal effect, which is a fact observed in climate studies.The fundamental cause of the polar amplification effect is global warming (the warming of the tropospheric atmosphere), rather than processes such as the feedback from ice-snow albedo, permafrost thawing, and the ocean circulation transporting heat to the polar regions. The latter are merely consequences of global warming, which is particularly crucial for a scientific understanding of the underlying logic of climate change. The polar amplification effect is more closely related to radiative forcing in the upper atmosphere. Under the influence of radiative forcing, areas with lower absolute temperatures require greater temperature adjustments to achieve a balance in outgoing radiative energy.Therefore, carbon-heat emissions from any region that heat the Earth's tropospheric atmosphere will inevitably produce the polar amplification effect, which is the "butterfly effect" in climate change. The same principle applies in reverse. Due to the influence of radiative forcing and weather systems, there is a significant correlation between seasonal surface air temperatures and air temperatures at the 850-hPa level. However, on a global and long-term scale, the impact of weather systems is smoothed out, leaving only the polar amplification effect. Conclusion and Discussion 1.The continuous carbon and heat emissions from mid-to-high latitude regions in the Northern Hemisphere elevate the atmospheric carbon concentration in the polar regions and the Southern Hemisphere through atmospheric circulation and seasonal vegetation regulation. This process, which results in a widespread warming of the global troposphere, is termed the "seesaw effect". 2.Whenever carbon and heat emissions in any region lead to an increase in the temperature of the atmospheric troposphere, it will inevitably cause a disproportionately greater warming in the polar regions. This phenomenon is known as the "butterfly effect" in climate change. The research content presented in this paper is solely based on climate observation facts; therefore, it does not involve statistical tests or model validation. Currently, there are numerous research papers on the mechanisms of the Arctic amplification effect. The reason for not appending these references is that, from the perspective of climate observation facts, studies on the mechanisms of polar amplification effect using complex models are all predicated on the premise of tropospheric warming. Excessive interpretations that deviate from this premise hold no substantive significance. Multifactor complex computational models can sometimes exacerbate the inherent confusion in science, whereas fundamental principles and theories are the critical factors determining the scientific validity of all models. The feedback mechanisms underlying climate fluctuations between warmth and cold are more appropriately explained using basic principles such as producers and consumers, respiration and photosynthesis, endothermic and exothermic reactions, and the accumulation and dissipation of energy. The balanced fluctuations in their proportions constitute the fundamental cause of climate change (DAI,2004). Declarations Acknowledgements The authors are grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. This research is supported by the China Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (Major projects) (GYHY201506001-3). Thanks to the project team for their hard work. Competing interests statement The authors declare that they have no competing interests. Data Availability Statement The analytical data used in this study can be obtained from the data descriptions in the text and the public websites provided in the references. References DAI H Y. Fundamental Principles behind Climate Change [J]. Meteorological and Environmental Research, 2024, 15 (4): 21-23. https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/ https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/ff.html https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/history.html Screen JA, Simmonds I. The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification [J]. Nature, 2010, 464(7 293):1 334-1 337. Serreze M C, Barry R G. Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification: A research synthesis [J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2011, 77:85-96. Additional Declarations No competing interests reported. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Reviews received at journal 23 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 04 Dec, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 30 Nov, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 09 Oct, 2025 Submission checks completed at journal 09 Oct, 2025 First submitted to journal 09 Oct, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7814370","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":527000346,"identity":"57ca9e94-984d-4bee-8ea2-e45d500c8160","order_by":0,"name":"Haiyan Dai","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA/klEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDCCA4xtDAwGQAZ7Y8PBDxUMPCRo4Tl88LHEGaK0MLBBGBJpyQa8bUS4i+/44bYHPwoOy5sz5JhJSM6rkzFnP8D44WMObi2SZxLbDXsMDhvubDhjJlG47TCPZU8Cs+TMbbi1GBxIbJPgMTjMuOFgD9CWbQd4DA4ksDHz4tNy/mGb5B+Dw/YbDvOYSfDOqeMxOP+AgJYbiW3SQFsSNxxjA3q/gZnH4AYBWyRvPGyTljFIT95whhkYyMcOA7U8bMbrF77z6c8k3/yxtt1w/yEwKmvq7A3OJx/88BGPFihoRuYwNhBUDwR1xCgaBaNgFIyCkQoA+RZZzsc6a1IAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Ecological and Agricultural Meteorological Center in Inner Mongolia","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Haiyan","middleName":"","lastName":"Dai","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-10-09 07:38:29","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7814370/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7814370/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":93465305,"identity":"f2bf46ee-ec28-4979-9f56-b9bda5463382","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-14 07:14:37","extension":"docx","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":190147,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.docx","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7814370/v1/f49dcf6d241032d8af825ea3.docx"},{"id":93464479,"identity":"278a5c57-f73e-466d-bee9-3b6d9543bbcf","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-14 07:06:37","extension":"json","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":3048,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"e6e1f3ca1cae483587b0aea48ae7677f.json","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7814370/v1/9dcd756f83d1e065558dfc4e.json"},{"id":93464481,"identity":"a24b706d-8567-449e-8093-607a4d5e043b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-14 07:06:37","extension":"xml","order_by":2,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":20137,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"e6e1f3ca1cae483587b0aea48ae7677f1enriched.xml","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7814370/v1/3daa1d5583c0a3d8757347dc.xml"},{"id":93465306,"identity":"cd73559b-642c-40a7-86a3-369a27afd1cd","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-14 07:14:37","extension":"jpeg","order_by":3,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":544325,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"floatimage1.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7814370/v1/75d2b269625f0764a00312c4.jpeg"},{"id":93464478,"identity":"1e7bbcfc-192a-44c9-b527-a66637a0ba36","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-14 07:06:37","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":124720,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Onlinefloatimage1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7814370/v1/56832b7204661e21a03e13b4.png"},{"id":93464477,"identity":"4014dc31-a04f-49b0-b94d-d8531ef1a2da","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-14 07:06:37","extension":"xml","order_by":5,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":19165,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"e6e1f3ca1cae483587b0aea48ae7677f1structuring.xml","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7814370/v1/85e36ec84f555e4604d78ca8.xml"},{"id":93464480,"identity":"3c03342c-e498-41a2-b394-8c84c3fd4a6c","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-14 07:06:37","extension":"html","order_by":6,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"acdc-reference","size":22482,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"earlyproof.html","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7814370/v1/d06dcf31288fd3b3bd895241.html"},{"id":93464476,"identity":"3937edc1-7377-40ab-af1f-7df86e26b141","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-14 07:06:37","extension":"png","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":290385,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eGlobal Air Temperature Anomalies at 2m Height\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e(\u003cem\u003ea: anomalies for 2004-2023 relative to 1961-1990 baseline; b:\u003c/em\u003e \u003cem\u003eanomalies for 1951-1970 relative to 1991-2020 baseline\u003c/em\u003e)\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"floatimage1.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7814370/v1/d7717e87bcebb8489aece961.png"},{"id":93465307,"identity":"789b8c70-e9a8-4c2b-b961-b5ae5ca8bf71","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-10-14 07:14:42","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":587423,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-7814370/v1/2db65f79-16aa-4954-9e79-e655ce50cb91.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"No competing interests reported.","formattedTitle":"The \"Seesaw Effect\" and \"Butterfly Effect\" in Climate Change","fulltext":[{"header":"Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eCurrently, numerous climate studies are grounded in the reality of global warming, with research efforts predominantly focused on regional changes or specific climate systems. Few studies have taken a step back to examine the intrinsic patterns of climate change beyond the confines of Earth's weather systems. Human activities, particularly carbon emissions, contribute to the warming of the Earth's surface and troposphere, with the most pronounced changes in CO\u003csub\u003e2\u003c/sub\u003e levels observed in the Northern Hemisphere. Through atmospheric circulation and seasonal vegetation changes, these emissions elevate temperatures in the Southern Hemisphere and polar regions. Although the heating effect of surface carbon emissions on the troposphere is relatively minor compared to the north-south migration of solar radiation, even these subtle changes can lead to continuous warming of the troposphere and influence global temperatures through the \"seesaw effect\" in the Northern Hemisphere.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eFrom the perspective of upper-atmosphere temperature anomalies, weather systems influence seasonal temperature variations at the regional level, while the long-term average warmth or coolness of the troposphere determines the Earth's climate. Overall increases or decreases in tropospheric temperature result in amplified warming or cooling at the poles. The polar amplification effect represents an inherent pattern of Earth's climate, with climate fluctuations between warmth and cold serving as the fundamental cause of this effect, mediated through radiative forcing. Atmospheric circulation, winds, ocean currents, and various weather systems are all superimposed disturbances on climate change, which can be understood as movements generated to balance surface temperatures due to uneven solar radiation absorption by the Earth. These movements do not inherently cause global warming; rather, it is the warming that alters these movements. Based on the facts of climate change, this paper proposes the concepts of the \"seesaw effect\" and the \"butterfly effect\", which hold significant importance for a scientific understanding of the intrinsic patterns of climate.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Research Methodology","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec3\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e1.1 Data Sources\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe data was obtained from the Climate Monitoring and Prediction Analysis System of the National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration. The NCEP reanalysis monthly data was sourced from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) dataset, with geographical coverage of -90\u0026thinsp;~\u0026thinsp;90\u0026deg;N and 0\u0026thinsp;~\u0026thinsp;357.5\u0026deg;E, containing 73\u0026times;144 grid points.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec4\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e1.2 Data Description\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eAnnual data were derived from the aforementioned datasets. The physical quantity analyzed was air temperature, with focus on surface 2m temperature and temperatures at 850-hPa, pressure levels. The study region covered the entire globe, using historical anomaly statistical methods and equidistant cylindrical projection for spatial distribution mapping.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"Two Effects in Climate Change","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec6\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e2.1 The \"Seesaw Effect\"\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eIn nature, the process of carbon emissions is often accompanied by heat emissions. Carbon contributes to the increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentration, while heat leads to a rise in atmospheric temperature (DAI,2004). For human society, this mainly involves the conversion of carbon-based energy. The seasonal north-south movement of the sun serves as the primary heat source for the Earth's atmosphere. Meanwhile, with the global population boom, carbon and heat emissions from human activities on the Earth's surface have been continuously increasing. Although these emissions are relatively weak compared to solar radiation, their persistent and subtle changes keep heating the troposphere, resulting in significant climate changes in the densely populated Northern Hemisphere.\u003c/p\u003e\u003cp\u003eFrom the global carbon emission map, industrial CO₂ emission trend charts, and global CO₂ animations (\u003cspan class=\"ExternalRef\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"RefSource\"\u003ehttps://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan address=\"https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends\" targettype=\"URL\" class=\"RefTarget\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e; \u003cspan class=\"ExternalRef\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"RefSource\"\u003ehttps://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/ff.html\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan address=\"https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/ff.html\" targettype=\"URL\" class=\"RefTarget\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e), it can be observed that carbon emissions in the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (the world's major carbon emission areas) continuously elevate the atmospheric carbon concentration in the polar regions and the Southern Hemisphere through atmospheric circulation and seasonal vegetation regulation(\u003cspan class=\"ExternalRef\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"RefSource\"\u003ehttps://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/history\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan address=\"https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/history\" targettype=\"URL\" class=\"RefTarget\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e.). This, in turn, causes a widespread warming of the global troposphere. The process by which the Northern Hemisphere drives up temperatures in the polar regions and the Southern Hemisphere is referred to as the \"seesaw effect\" in the context of climate change. Despite the regulating effects of vegetation and seasons, climate changes in the high-carbon-emitting Northern Hemisphere occur significantly earlier and exhibit stronger characteristics compared to those in the Southern Hemisphere.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv id=\"Sec7\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e\u003ch2\u003e2.2 The \"Butterfly Effect\"\u003c/h2\u003e\u003cp\u003eThe global climate's warmth or coldness can be represented by the temperature of the atmospheric troposphere. An increase in tropospheric temperature leads to a disproportionately greater warming in the polar regions (Screen JA, 2010; Serreze M C 2011)and vice versa (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e). Both warming and cooling spread from the polar regions to the mid-to-high latitudes and low latitudes. There are significant regional differences in the magnitude of surface temperature increases or decreases, demonstrating a notable latitudinal effect, which is a fact observed in climate studies.The fundamental cause of the polar amplification effect is global warming (the warming of the tropospheric atmosphere), rather than processes such as the feedback from ice-snow albedo, permafrost thawing, and the ocean circulation transporting heat to the polar regions. The latter are merely consequences of global warming, which is particularly crucial for a scientific understanding of the underlying logic of climate change. The polar amplification effect is more closely related to radiative forcing in the upper atmosphere. Under the influence of radiative forcing, areas with lower absolute temperatures require greater temperature adjustments to achieve a balance in outgoing radiative energy.Therefore, carbon-heat emissions from any region that heat the Earth's tropospheric atmosphere will inevitably produce the polar amplification effect, which is the \"butterfly effect\" in climate change. The same principle applies in reverse. Due to the influence of radiative forcing and weather systems, there is a significant correlation between seasonal surface air temperatures and air temperatures at the 850-hPa level. However, on a global and long-term scale, the impact of weather systems is smoothed out, leaving only the polar amplification effect.\u003c/p\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"Conclusion and Discussion","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cspan\u003e1.The continuous carbon and heat emissions from mid-to-high latitude regions in the Northern Hemisphere elevate the atmospheric carbon concentration in the polar regions and the Southern Hemisphere through atmospheric circulation and seasonal vegetation regulation. This process, which results in a widespread warming of the global troposphere, is termed the \u0026quot;seesaw effect\u0026quot;.\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan\u003e2.Whenever carbon and heat emissions in any region lead to an increase in the temperature of the atmospheric troposphere, it will inevitably cause a disproportionately greater warming in the polar regions. This phenomenon is known as the \u0026quot;butterfly effect\u0026quot; in climate change.\u003cbr\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe research content presented in this paper is solely based on climate observation facts; therefore, it does not involve statistical tests or model validation. Currently, there are numerous research papers on the mechanisms of the Arctic amplification effect. The reason for not appending these references is that, from the perspective of climate observation facts, studies on the mechanisms of polar amplification effect using complex models are all predicated on the premise of tropospheric warming. Excessive interpretations that deviate from this premise hold no substantive significance. Multifactor complex computational models can sometimes exacerbate the inherent confusion in science, whereas fundamental principles and theories are the critical factors determining the scientific validity of all models. The feedback mechanisms underlying climate fluctuations between warmth and cold are more appropriately explained using basic principles such as producers and consumers, respiration and photosynthesis, endothermic and exothermic reactions, and the accumulation and dissipation of energy. The balanced fluctuations in their proportions constitute the fundamental cause of climate change (DAI,2004).\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAcknowledgements\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe authors are grateful to the anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. This research is supported by the\u003cstrong\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/strong\u003eChina Special Fund for Meteorological Research in the Public Interest (Major projects) (GYHY201506001-3). Thanks to the project team for their hard work.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eCompeting interests statement\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe authors declare that they have no competing interests.\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eData Availability Statement\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe analytical data used in this study can be obtained from the data descriptions in the text and the public websites provided in the references.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eDAI H Y. Fundamental Principles behind Climate Change [J]. Meteorological and Environmental Research, 2024, 15 (4): 21-23.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003ehttps://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003ehttps://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/ff.html\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003ehttps://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/history.html\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eScreen JA, Simmonds I. The central role of diminishing sea ice in recent Arctic temperature amplification [J]. Nature, 2010, 464(7 293):1 334-1 337.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eSerreze M C, Barry R G. Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification: A research synthesis [J]. Global and Planetary Change, 2011, 77:85-96.\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":false,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"theoretical-and-applied-climatology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"taac","sideBox":"Learn more about [Theoretical and Applied Climatology](https://www.springer.com/journal/704)","snPcode":"704","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/704/3","title":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false},"keywords":"Climate Change, Seesaw Effect, Butterfly Effect, Inverse Principle, Natural Regulation Theory","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7814370/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-7814370/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eBased on currently observed changes in surface and upper-air temperatures, this paper elaborates on two significant theoretical perspectives in climate change: ①The \"Seesaw Effect\": Continuous carbon and heat emissions from mid- to high-latitude regions in the Northern Hemisphere drive atmospheric carbon concentrations in polar regions and the Southern Hemisphere through atmospheric circulation and seasonal vegetation adjustments, thereby causing widespread warming of the global troposphere. ② The \"Butterfly Effect\": Regardless of the geographical location, any increase in carbon and heat emissions that elevates tropospheric temperatures will inevitably lead to amplified warming in polar regions, with the reverse scenario also holding true. Climate fluctuations between warmth and cold always initiate from the poles and extend towards mid- and low latitudes, representing an inherent pattern of climate. Deviating from the essence of this pattern and overly focusing on the influencing factors of the phenomenon offers limited value for a scientific understanding of climate change.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"The \"Seesaw Effect\" and \"Butterfly Effect\" in Climate Change","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-10-14 07:06:32","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-7814370/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0},{"type":"editorInvitedReview","content":"","date":"2025-12-23T15:18:21+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewerAgreed","content":"308746481381808436226438175890720421694","date":"2025-12-04T09:16:33+00:00","index":"hide","fulltext":""},{"type":"reviewersInvited","content":"","date":"2025-11-30T19:47:57+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"editorAssigned","content":"","date":"2025-10-09T09:15:46+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"checksComplete","content":"","date":"2025-10-09T09:15:37+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""},{"type":"submitted","content":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","date":"2025-10-09T07:30:08+00:00","index":"","fulltext":""}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"theoretical-and-applied-climatology","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"externalIdentity":"taac","sideBox":"Learn more about [Theoretical and Applied Climatology](https://www.springer.com/journal/704)","snPcode":"704","submissionUrl":"https://submission.nature.com/new-submission/704/3","title":"Theoretical and Applied Climatology","twitterHandle":"","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":true,"editorialSystem":"em","reportingPortfolio":"Springer Hybrid","inReviewEnabled":true,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":false}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"136f994a-d9c6-47b6-92f7-3011426b99be","owner":[],"postedDate":"October 14th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"under-review","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-11-30T19:53:19+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-10-14 07:06:32","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-7814370","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-7814370","identity":"rs-7814370","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}