The Pattern of COVID-19 Deaths per Million in Relation to Population Growth Rates

Abstract Objectives: It is well known that aging – as an indicator for community structure- carries a risk factor for COVID-19 mortality. Because of the scarcity of global data about COVID-19 age distribution data, we suggest that the population growth rate (PGR) can reflect the age group structure of the community and can be used as a new indicator for COVID-19 mortality risk assessment. Furthermore, PGR gives an idea about two parameters: birth rate and mortality rate. Study Design: Ninety-two countries with a total population of more than ten million people were chosen as a sample for this study. We used publically available data for PGRs and COVID-19 deaths per one million populations. These countries were classified into three groups according to COVID-19 death rate per million people into 2000 (19 Countries). Methods: Analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used as a statistical method to provide information about levels of variability within a regression model and form a basis for testing the fitted logarithmic model for significance. Results: PGR was inversely related to COVID-19 mortality in a too highly significant association (p-value 0.000) Conclusions: PGR estimation is a novel method that can be used to detect countries at increased risk for COVID-19 death in addition to age structure of the community. Keywords: COVID-19; population growth rate; COVID-19 deaths per one million.