The development and internal evaluation of a predictive model to identify for whom Mindfulness-Based Cognitive Therapy (MBCT) offers superior relapse prevention for recurrent depression versus maintenance antidepressant medication

Depression is highly recurrent, even following successful pharmacological and/or psychological intervention. We aimed to develop clinical prediction models to inform adults with recurrent depression choosing between antidepressant medication (ADM) maintenance or switching to Mindfulness-Based Cognitive Therapy (MBCT). Using data from the PREVENT trial (N=424), we constructed prognostic models using elastic net regression that combined demographic, clinical and psychological factors to predict relapse at 24 months under ADM or MBCT. Only the ADM model (discrimination performance: AUC=.68) predicted relapse better than baseline depression severity (AUC=.54; one-tailed DeLong’s test: z=2.8, p=.003). Individuals with the poorest ADM prognoses who switched to MBCT had better outcomes compared to those who maintained ADM (48% vs. 70% relapse, respectively; superior survival times [z=−2.7, p=.008]). For individuals with moderate-to-good ADM prognosis, both treatments resulted in similar likelihood of relapse. If replicated, the results suggest that predictive modeling can inform clinical decision-making around relapse prevention in recurrent depression.