The Zambian Energy Transition (ZET): A Case Study for OsemOSYS and FlexTool

Abstract This paper presents a Zambia study case for the application of Osemosys and Flextool. Three scenarios are explored assessing Zambian energy transition outlook (2022 – 2063) which include the business as usual (BAU), integrated resource plan (IRP), and Net Zero prospects to align with agenda 2063 for Africa. The output of Osemosys simulation modelling comprises detailed results providing capacity expansion planning of the generation assets to meet the anticipated demand for a specific range of future years (2022 – 2063). Based on the performance of the energy mix (i.e., hydro, thermal and renewable energy generation projects), the simulation assesses the adequacy of the available assets and identifies new capacity to be added at the least cost. Thereafter, the flexibility of the power system is assessed using FlexTool. To contextualise, FlexTool was used to assess the flexibility of the defined specific year of the capacity expansion plans produced in Osemosys. The writeup delved into analysis of three key assessment indicators for the various scenarios which include cost-effective generation, emissions reduction, and flexibility assessment outcome.