Relatable Information Disproportionately Shapes Expectations

We conduct a survey, on the eve of the 2020 presidential election, of over 3,000 experienced US investors about the COVID cases in their social networks, their political leanings, and economic expectations. Although providing little additional information relative to the saturating media coverage, COVID cases among their social contacts are strongly associated with their expectations across domains, from public health, politics, to the macroeconomy. Those expectations are also strongly correlated with their political leanings. These results are consistent with the view that information from our social networks or consistent with our world views is relatable and disproportionately shapes our expectations.