Beyond plain packaging: Three experiments on effect of one-variant-per-brand and numerical labelling of cigarettes amongst young adult smokers

Background: Cigarette brand and variant names are one of the last remaining marketing tools in countries with plain packaging and advertising bans. Variant names foster product choice and product bonding by signaling quality, taste, and even perceived harm. This study tests two policy measures aimed at reducing the influence of variant names: (1) a one-variant-per-brand policy and (2) replacing variant names with numerical labels. Methods: Three randomised controlled experiments were conducted with 1,381 participants (354 daily smokers aged 18–25; 293 non-daily smokers aged 18–25; 383 non-smokers aged 18–25; and 351 adult daily smokers aged 26+). Experiment 1 used a virtual shop scenario to test purchase intentions. Experiment 2 assessed support for policies and smoking-related intentions. Experiment 3 evaluated perceptions of attractiveness, taste, and harm based on cigarette packaging effects. Both quantitative (closed-ended) and qualitative (open-ended) data were collected. Results: One in three smoking and two in three non-smoking participants supported the policies. Replacing variant names with numbers slightly increased purchase intention. The most reported reason is curiosity. One-variant-per-brand did not change purchase intention. Smoking young adults showed increased intentions to quit or reduce smoking under both policies. The effect was strongest for one-variant-per-brand. Most common reasons to quit or smoke less were that they already had the intentions to quit and the policy offered a nudge. Smoking adults showed no change. Perceptions of harm, attractiveness, and taste were unaffected by the policies, instead policies likely create temporary friction in the smoking experience by breaking brand and variant loyalty, offering people who have an intention to quit or reduce smoking momentum for doing so. No evidence was found that policies would increase uptake among non-smokers or increase smoking; however, indications for substitution toward e-cigarettes and other tobacco products were reported. Conclusions: Both policies may support existing desire for smoking reduction and cessation among young adult smokers, especially non-daily smokers, without unintended smoking increases. Linking such policies to cessation campaigns, monitoring curiosity effects and substitution behaviours is recommended.