Cardiometabolic Indices as Predictors of Clinical Outcomes in Palliative Care Patients

Background Multiple cardiometabolic indices have been proposed for prognostic assessment, yet their comparative performance in palliative care remains unclear. The triglyceride-glucose body mass index (TyG-BMI) integrates metabolic dysfunction with adiposity, but whether it outperforms traditional lipid-based, inflammatory, and nutritional indices requires systematic evaluation. Purpose To comprehensively compare TyG-BMI against eleven established cardiometabolic indices for predicting sepsis, mechanical ventilation requirement, and 30-day mortality in palliative care patients, with specific focus on performance in diabetic subpopulations. Patients and Methods This retrospective cohort included 318 palliative care patients. Twelve indices were calculated: TyG-BMI (primary); lipid-based (AIP, CRI-I, CRI-II, Non-HDL, TG/HDL); inflammatory (NLR, PLR, SII, MHR); and nutritional (PNI, CAR). ROC analysis compared discriminative ability for sepsis, mechanical ventilation, and 30-day mortality. Subgroup analyses stratified by diabetes mellitus status were performed with interaction testing.

Of 318 patients (mean age 67.4±14.8 years, 55% male), 121 (38.1%) had diabetes, 58 (18.2%) developed sepsis, 42 (13.2%) required mechanical ventilation, and 30 (9.4%) died within 30 days. TyG-BMI achieved the highest AUCs: 0.84 (95% CI 0.78-0.90) for sepsis, 0.82 (0.75-0.89) for ventilation, and 0.87 (0.82-0.92) for 30-day mortality—significantly superior to all comparator indices (p<0.001). In multivariate analysis, TyG-BMI independently predicted mortality (OR 2.38 per SD, 95% CI 1.78-3.18, p<0.001). In diabetic patients, TyG-BMI’s discriminative ability was markedly enhanced (mortality AUC 0.92, 95% CI 0.87-0.97; OR 2.65, 95% CI 1.88-3.74, p<0.001), while other indices showed minimal performance improvement (interaction p<0.001).

TyG-BMI demonstrates superior prognostic performance compared to traditional cardiometabolic indices for predicting sepsis and 30-day mortality in palliative care, with exceptional discriminative ability in diabetic patients. Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. Funding Statement The author(s) received no specific funding for this work. Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: Ethics approval for this study was obtained from the Non-Interventional Clinical Research Ethics Committee of Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University, Yenimahalle Training and Research Hospital (Approval No: E-2025-27, Date: 30 October 2025). I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes Data Availability Because the dataset contains personal and confidential medical information, it cannot be shared publicly however, qualified researchers with a valid research proposal and ethical approval from the Non-Interventional Clinical Research Ethics Committee of Ankara Yıldırım Beyazıt University, Yenimahalle Training and Research Hospital (Approval No: E-2025-27) may request access to the data.