A climate-driven compartmental model for fungal diseases in fruit orchards: The impacts of climate change on a brown rot-peach system

As a well-known driving force of diseases in crops, climate change is likely to impact future crop yields. In the present work, we account for climate-related influences on the key parameters of a SIR-type epidemiological model for fungal diseases in stone fruit aimed at simulating different observed epidemic patterns, and, eventually, evaluating the possible impacts of climate change on the disease-induced yield loss. Brown rot disease in peach orchards is used here as a study system. We contrasted simulation results with epidemiological measures collected from an experimental orchard in Avignon (southern France) in two consecutive years, characterized by dissimilar brown rot outbreaks. The capacity of our climate-driven model to adequately reproduce the observed disease patterns suggests temperature and precipitation as key drivers of brown rot epidemics. Overall, the model predicts a potential decrease of brown rot severity under warmer and drier climatic conditions. To comprehensively understand the effect of future climate change on peach yield, alterations of crop phenology must also be accounted for. We thus build a model that considers the synergism between the two factors: vulnerability to the pathogen and varying phenology. Using plausible climate change scenarios, we find that the peach yield in the considered Mediterranean region will be considerably impaired: although brown rot-related yield losses are expected to decrease in warmer and drier climatic conditions, climate change will hinder fruit blooming and consequently the yield because milder winters will impede the achievement of dormancy. By deepening our understanding of climatic impacts on crop fungal infections, the present study may serve as a useful tool to plan and implement suitable adaptation strategies for peach cultivation.