A comprehensive survey of coronaviral main protease active site diversity in 3D: Identifying and analyzing drug discovery targets in search of broad specificity inhibitors for the next coronavirus pandemic

Although the rapid development of therapeutic responses to combat SARS-CoV-2 represents a great human achievement, it also demonstrates untapped potential for advanced pandemic preparedness. Cross-species efficacy against multiple human coronaviruses by the main protease (MPro) inhibitor nirmatrelvir raises the question of its breadth of inhibition and our preparedness against future coronaviral threats. Herein, we describe sequence and structural analyses of 346 unique MPro enzymes from all coronaviruses represented in the NCBI Virus database. Cognate substrates of these representative proteases were inferred from their polyprotein sequences. We clustered MPro sequences based on sequence identity and AlphaFold2-predicted structures, showing approximate correspondence with known viral subspecies. Predicted structures of five representative MPros bound to their inferred cognate substrates showed high conservation in protease:substrate interaction modes, with some notable differences. Yeast-based proteolysis assays of the five representatives were able to confirm activity of three on inferred cognate substrates, and demonstrated that of the three, only one was effectively inhibited by nirmatrelvir. Our findings suggest that comprehensive preparedness against future potential coronaviral threats will require continued inhibitor development. Our methods may be applied to candidate coronaviral MPro inhibitors to evaluate in advance the breadth of their inhibition and identify target coronaviruses potentially meriting advanced development of alternative countermeasures.