Complexity and mediating factors in farmers' climate perceptions and agricultural adaptation strategies in the Guatemalan Dry Corridor

Abstract Projected precipitation decreases due to anthropogenic climate change will have serious consequences for the millions of households in Central America that rely on rainfed agriculture. However, a signal of anthropogenic climate change is not yet clear in regional precipitation data despite observations from many farmers throughout Central America who report recent changes in rainfall and associated losses to crop production and food security. Given the role of climate perceptions on adaptation and the substantial variability in regional climate, it is important to study uncertainties in both climate and social data and their implications for decision-making. We use a combination of satellite-based climate data and over 700 household surveys from two departments in Guatemala to better understand rainy season climate patterns over recent decades. Climate data reveal variable trends depending on the time period and location. Farmers' perceptions of rainfall trends are vary widely and we identify factors that may contribute to this lack of consensus. We also assess how farmers' observations and household characteristics influence agricultural practices. Our findings suggest that regional differences, including off-farm income sources, mediate farmers' modification to their agricultural practices, irrespective of whether a trend in rainfall is perceived or not. However, adjustments to agricultural maize practices are significantly associated with perceived rainfall changes where there is greater dependence on income derived from smallholder agriculture. Reconciling household- and community-level perceptions with observed and anticipated climate variability and change is therefore critical in these regions to ensure appropriate adaptation interventions and strategies.