Analysis of Changes in Seismicity Pattern for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) and Mitigation: Mapping Probability Difference before the Large Earthquake and Its Implementation in PSHA & Mitigation around Northern Sumatra

Analysis of Changes in Seismicity Pattern for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) and Mitigation: Mapping Probability Difference before the Large Earthquake and Its Implementation in PSHA & Mitigation around Northern Sumatra | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Letter Analysis of Changes in Seismicity Pattern for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) and Mitigation: Mapping Probability Difference before the Large Earthquake and Its Implementation in PSHA & Mitigation around Northern Sumatra Wahyu Triyoso, Tedi Yudistira, David P. Sahara This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-36859/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The probability difference before the occurrence of a large earthquake is mapped in the northern part of Sumatra, taking the range of Region Time Length (RTL) before a major earthquake (December 26, 2004) around 15 years. By normalizing the absolute value of probability difference between two periods of RTL and before RTL, the Seismic Quiescence Index (SQI) is then defined. Probability difference analysis is done by dividing observations of shallow earthquake periods into two periods based on the similarity gradient of the annual earthquake production, namely 1963-1990 and 1991-November 2004. The results showed that areas with relatively high SQI were consistent with the presence of major earthquake events after November 2004 to 2016 that are sorted by a radius of 300 km with the center point being the epicenter position of the December 2004 earthquake. The implementation of the SQI was then used for probabilistic seismic hazards study and analysis based on an integratedmodel that is derived based on the estimated of seismicity rate of around the subduction zone and active fault of Sumatra Fault Zone (SFZ) sources. The map of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is then constructed based onPeak Ground Acceleration (PGA) estimated for a 10% Probability Exceedance (PE) level in 50 years. The results of this study may be very useful for earthquake mitigation and modeling efforts for PSHA going forward. Geology Probability of Occurrence Probability Difference Seismic Quiescence Index Large Earthquakes PSHA map PGA PE Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-36859","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Letter","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":724493,"identity":"aa7be14b-08d5-4f61-b905-1df8f12dce9b","order_by":0,"name":"Wahyu Triyoso","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAyUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYJCCAyCCH0QkFBCjng2qRbIBpMWASC1gYADWSIwWg/u9Dw/zVNTJGZ9fnfjhgQGDPL/YAQJajrEbHOY5c9jY7MbbzRJAhxnOnJ2AX4vZMTaGw7xtBxK33Ti7AaQlweA2cVrqEjfPOLv5BylamBM38PduI84W+2NpDAfnAP0icYN3m0WCgQRhv0g2H2P+8AYYYvz9Zzff/FFhI88vTUALCDDxgEgJsEoJwspBgPEHiOQ/QJzqUTAKRsEoGHkAAEicRWYgMjkEAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8561-839X","institution":"Bandung Institute Of Technology","correspondingAuthor":true,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Wahyu","middleName":"","lastName":"Triyoso","suffix":""},{"id":724494,"identity":"98aeeb2e-bb35-449f-b180-7a57dcf31ffa","order_by":1,"name":"Tedi Yudistira","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Institut Teknologi Bandung","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Tedi","middleName":"","lastName":"Yudistira","suffix":""},{"id":724495,"identity":"5444cfb9-e560-45a7-bf07-c6a50eed9135","order_by":2,"name":"David P. Sahara","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Institut Teknologi Bandung","correspondingAuthor":false,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"David","middleName":"P.","lastName":"Sahara","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2020-06-19 22:24:44","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-36859/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-36859/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":1443355,"identity":"440c2019-4b11-4f02-bbd7-325bdee57e3b","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2020-06-29 13:19:07","extension":"jpg","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":250074,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"The result of the annual seismicity rate model of the study area with a radius of 400km with the center being the epicenter of the earthquake of December 26, 2004, with Mw ≥ 5.0, generated by data before the RTL period. It is the period of the year of 1963 to 1990 (A). Annual seismicity rate model in the RTL period of the year of 1991 to November 2004(B). The spatial b-value is estimated based on the constant radius of 150km of shallow earthquake catalog with Mc ~ 4.7, H ≤ 50km of the years 1963 to 2016 (C).","description":"","filename":"Fig1.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-36859/v1/Fig1.jpg"},{"id":1443356,"identity":"8bbe7dce-73d3-43bd-befa-7c09c3696e55","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2020-06-29 13:19:07","extension":"jpg","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":258386,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"The map of Seismic Quiescence Index ‘SQI’(A). The integrated result between two models of the subduction zone and active fault sources in which data around subduction zone that is based on the results of Triyoso et al. (2020a) and the active fault data is resulted by the integration between the two models of the A-value of the shallow earthquake catalog weighted by the normalized smoothed seismicity obtained from active fault data (B). The annual seismicity rate model obtained based on the integration between two models (Figure B) weighted by the SQI model (C). The results show that the SQI isconsistent with the places of the sorted of major earthquakes that occurred from December 2004 to 2016 with the radius around 300km.","description":"","filename":"Fig2.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-36859/v1/Fig2.jpg"},{"id":1443357,"identity":"b7248d2f-327d-4b8b-9f5e-5ff2005f6342","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2020-06-29 13:19:07","extension":"jpg","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":86871,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"The mean PGA map of the three differentGMPEs (Atkinson et al., 2006, Zhao et al., 1997 and Fukushima \u0026 Tanaka, 1992) of the 10% of PE level for 50 years, where SQI is included. The active fault (Natawidjaja, 2018) is simplified by the segmented fault model and it is plotted on the map.","description":"","filename":"Fig3.jpg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-36859/v1/Fig3.jpg"},{"id":13512415,"identity":"8c78e62c-4727-4e68-84f5-3d3a26a28018","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2021-09-16 23:55:43","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":638362,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SQIPaperWTetalGOSLTemplateEdited01.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-36859/v1_covered.pdf"},{"id":1443359,"identity":"a2e5601b-72d8-4bd3-a8a4-594b6cdcf441","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2020-06-29 13:19:09","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":503570,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SQIPaperWTetalGOSLTemplateEdited01.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-36859/v1_stamped.pdf"},{"id":1443358,"identity":"31117787-4237-4fe0-b77c-ac40ff2e4b63","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2020-06-29 13:19:07","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":421883,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"SQIPaperWTetalGOSLTemplateEdited01.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-36859/v1/SQIPaperWTetalGOSLTemplateEdited01.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Analysis of Changes in Seismicity Pattern for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) and Mitigation: Mapping Probability Difference before the Large Earthquake and Its Implementation in PSHA \u0026 Mitigation around Northern Sumatra","fulltext":[{"header":"Full Text","content":"\u003cp\u003eThis preprint is available for \u003ca href='/article/rs-36859/latest.pdf' target='_blank'\u003edownload as a PDF\u003c/a\u003e.\u003c/p\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Probability of Occurrence, Probability Difference, Seismic Quiescence Index, Large Earthquakes, PSHA map, PGA, PE","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-36859/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-36859/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe probability difference before the occurrence of a large earthquake is mapped in the northern part of Sumatra, taking the range of Region Time Length (RTL) before a major earthquake (December 26, 2004) around 15 years. By normalizing the absolute value of probability difference between two periods of RTL and before RTL, the Seismic Quiescence Index (SQI) is then defined. Probability difference analysis is done by dividing observations of shallow earthquake periods into two periods based on the similarity gradient of the annual earthquake production, namely 1963-1990 and 1991-November 2004. The results showed that areas with relatively high SQI were consistent with the presence of major earthquake events after November 2004 to 2016 that are sorted by a radius of 300 km with the center point being the epicenter position of the December 2004 earthquake. The implementation of the SQI was then used for probabilistic seismic hazards study and analysis based on an integratedmodel that is derived based on the estimated of seismicity rate of around the subduction zone and active fault of Sumatra Fault Zone (SFZ) sources. The map of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) is then constructed based onPeak Ground Acceleration (PGA) estimated for a 10% Probability Exceedance (PE) level in 50 years. The results of this study may be very useful for earthquake mitigation and modeling efforts for PSHA going forward.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Analysis of Changes in Seismicity Pattern for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) and Mitigation: Mapping Probability Difference before the Large Earthquake and Its Implementation in PSHA \u0026amp; Mitigation around Northern Sumatra","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2020-06-29 13:19:06","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-36859/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"5ae85089-865d-4b0b-9cf1-934c52262644","owner":[],"postedDate":"June 29th, 2020","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":134097,"name":"Geology"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2020-07-20T21:46:21+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2020-06-29 13:19:06","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-36859","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-36859","identity":"rs-36859","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"FbvkV6FR0MCFSLy54lSbu","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}