Recursive Zero-COVID Model and Quantitation of Control Efforts of the Omicron Epidemic in Jilin Province

Since the beginning of March 2022, the epidemic due to the Omicron variant has developed rapidly in Jilin Province. To figure out the key controlling factors and validate the model to show the success of the Zero-COVID policy in the province, we constructed a Recursive Zero-COVID Model quantifying the strength of the control measures, and defined the control reproduction number as an index for describing the intensity of interventions. Parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis were employed to estimate and validate the impact of changes in the strength of different measures on the intensity of public health preventions qualitatively and quantitatively. The recursive Zero-COVID model predicted that the elimination of cases at the community level of the Changchun and Jilin Cities to be on April 8 and April 17, respectively, which are consistent with the real situation. Our results showed that the strict implementation of control measures and adherence of the public are crucial for controlling the epidemic. It is also essential to strengthen the control intensity even at the final stage to avoid the rebound of the epidemic. In addition, the control reproduction number we defined in the paper is a novel index to measure the intensity of the prevention and control measures of public health.Funding Information: This research was funded in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (12101157, 12126206); Natural Science Foundation of Jilin Province (20210101482JC); Natural Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Province (LH2021A003). Declaration of Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.