Tracking grid-level freshwater boundary exceedance along global supply chains from consumption to impact

Tracking grid-level freshwater boundary exceedance along global supply chains from consumption to impact | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Tracking grid-level freshwater boundary exceedance along global supply chains from consumption to impact Siyu Hou, Jingwen Huo, Xu Zhao, Xiaoxi Wang, Xinxin Zhang, Dandan Zhao, and 6 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6139644/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Consumption behaviors exert pressure on water resources both locally and globally through interconnected supply chains, hindering the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 6 (Clean water and sanitation) and 12 (Responsible consumption and production). However, it is challenging to link hotspots of water depletion across spatial scales to final consumption while reflecting intersectoral competition for water. Here, we estimate the global exceedance of regional freshwater boundaries (RFBs) due to human water withdrawal at a 5-arcmin grid scale using 2015 data, enabling the identification of hotspots across different spatial scales. To reduce uncertainty, we use average estimates from 15 global hydrological models and 5 environmental flow requirement methods. We further attribute the hotspots of exceedance to final consumption across 245 economies and 134 sectors via a multi-region input-output model, EMERGING. Our refined framework reveals previously unknown connections between regional hotspots and consumption through international trade. Notably, 24% of grid-level RFB exceedance (718 km 3 /yr; 95% confidence interval of 659–776 km 3 /yr) is outsourced through trade, with the largest flows (52 km 3 /yr; 95% confidence interval of 47–56 km 3 /yr) from water-stressed South-Central Asia to arid West Asia. The demand for cereals and other agricultural products dominates global consumption-based RFB exceedance (29%), while the exports of textiles and machinery and equipment exacerbate territorial exceedance in manufacturing hubs within emerging economies. Our analysis facilitates tracing global hotspots of water scarcity along the supply chain, and assigning responsibilities at finer scales. Environmental Economics Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Supplementary Files SI.pdf Supporting information Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6139644","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":422911086,"identity":"206a000c-a0dd-450d-b59c-170a445d346b","order_by":0,"name":"Siyu Hou","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Integrated Research on Energy, Environment and Society (IREES),University of Groningen","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Siyu","middleName":"","lastName":"Hou","suffix":""},{"id":422913312,"identity":"213f97c8-989a-43a6-91fc-3094890b0072","order_by":1,"name":"Jingwen Huo","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Tsinghua University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jingwen","middleName":"","lastName":"Huo","suffix":""},{"id":422913313,"identity":"bb469e64-3991-429f-bccb-e1bfa9c54e78","order_by":2,"name":"Xu Zhao","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAAwUlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYHACNiC2YWA4AKR4SNCSRrqWwyRoMbiR/uzBj4rz9nw3EhgfvG1jkDcnpEVyRkK6Yc+Z24kzbyQwG85tYzDc2UBAC79EwjEJ3rbbCQY3EtikedsYEgwOEPKIRGKb5N+2c/ZALey/idLCL5EMMvwA4wagLcxEaZHsecYmLXMmOXHmmYfNknPOSRhuIKTF4Hj6M8k3FXb2fMeTD354U2YjT9AWJMDYACQkiFc/CkbBKBgFowA3AAB9ST6Fw08IFgAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"","institution":"Institute of Blue and Green Development, Shandong University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xu","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhao","suffix":""},{"id":422913314,"identity":"b8929029-67ad-4009-9d08-ce704bee3474","order_by":3,"name":"Xiaoxi Wang","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA9UlEQVRIiWNgGAWjYDACZhBhAGYyPmDgAdEJxGthNiBOCxJgk4DQBLQYHGd++JingCGxf3b7tcofMocZ+NlzDBh+7sCtRbKZzdhwhgFD4ow7Z8puSPAcZpDseWPA2HsGtxZ+ZgYziQ8GDLkNN3LSbhgAtRjcyDFgZmzD435m9m8SCUAt84FaChKAWuwJaeFn5oHYsuFG+jGGAyBbJAhokWzmKQb5pX7jjRxmyQaedB6JM88KDvbi0WJw/vjGxzx/GIzlbqQ//Pizx1qOvz1544OfeLRAwX8g5jFgYOyBROYBghoggP0BA8MPItWOglEwCkbBiAIA5nNLO2MB6fYAAAAASUVORK5CYII=","orcid":"","institution":"Zhejiang University","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xiaoxi","middleName":"","lastName":"Wang","suffix":""},{"id":422913315,"identity":"0514f7da-bb67-4bcd-bbcd-73977210677d","order_by":4,"name":"Xinxin Zhang","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Business School, Shandong University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Xinxin","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhang","suffix":""},{"id":422913316,"identity":"57a73d69-2b60-4fd3-b575-ef877871037b","order_by":5,"name":"Dandan Zhao","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"Aalto University","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Dandan","middleName":"","lastName":"Zhao","suffix":""},{"id":422913317,"identity":"f2f8165b-7c56-4595-af6e-e125966ad7bd","order_by":6,"name":"Martin R. 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The uncertainty in RFB exceedance and RFB exceedance footprint with a 95% confidence interval can be seen in Table S2-4, Fig. S5 and SI Note 2 of Supporting information. Note: the figure includes only economies with populations over 1 million.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"FIG2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6139644/v1/877996f840826561994978bf.png"},{"id":77690127,"identity":"9b70a24b-b443-43bf-b7fc-514b28bd3fbb","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-03-04 09:37:55","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":43305239,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003e(a) Inter-sector flows of global RFB exceedance from production to consumption, and (b) global RFB exceedance flows embodied in trade by region in 2015.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"FIG.3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6139644/v1/28ec3acf242c23584f4cb81d.png"},{"id":77694299,"identity":"2cc940de-9676-4ce6-97dc-0537f4d847ac","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-03-04 10:11:34","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":6815197,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"Manuscriptclean.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6139644/v1_covered_ffda4177-1188-4366-af78-d7f44ffd26df.pdf"},{"id":77690129,"identity":"f0847c79-7383-42c1-a31b-7a175a1680a5","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-03-04 09:37:56","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"supplement","size":3274923,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSupporting information\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"SI.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6139644/v1/7a09bee01a37f526b1527019.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"The authors declare no competing interests.","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eTracking grid-level freshwater boundary exceedance along global supply chains from consumption to impact\u003c/strong\u003e\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":true,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"Institute of Blue and Green Development, Shandong University","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6139644/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6139644/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eConsumption behaviors exert pressure on water resources both locally and globally through interconnected supply chains, hindering the achievement of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) 6 (Clean water and sanitation) and 12 (Responsible consumption and production). However, it is challenging to link hotspots of water depletion across spatial scales to final consumption while reflecting intersectoral competition for water. Here, we estimate the global exceedance of regional freshwater boundaries (RFBs) due to human water withdrawal at a 5-arcmin grid scale using 2015 data, enabling the identification of hotspots across different spatial scales. To reduce uncertainty, we use average estimates from 15 global hydrological models and 5 environmental flow requirement methods. We further attribute the hotspots of exceedance to final consumption across 245 economies and 134 sectors via a multi-region input-output model, EMERGING. Our refined framework reveals previously unknown connections between regional hotspots and consumption through international trade. Notably, 24% of grid-level RFB exceedance (718 km\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e/yr; 95% confidence interval of 659\u0026ndash;776 km\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e/yr) is outsourced through trade, with the largest flows (52 km\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e/yr; 95% confidence interval of 47\u0026ndash;56 km\u003csup\u003e3\u003c/sup\u003e/yr) from water-stressed South-Central Asia to arid West Asia. The demand for cereals and other agricultural products dominates global consumption-based RFB exceedance (29%), while the exports of textiles and machinery and equipment exacerbate territorial exceedance in manufacturing hubs within emerging economies. Our analysis facilitates tracing global hotspots of water scarcity along the supply chain, and assigning responsibilities at finer scales.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Tracking grid-level freshwater boundary exceedance along global supply chains from consumption to impact","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2025-03-04 09:37:50","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6139644/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"24b57770-96c4-4f40-8bd8-8aae5f592599","owner":[],"postedDate":"March 4th, 2025","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":45073982,"name":"Environmental Economics"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-03-04T11:07:43+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2025-03-04 09:37:50","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-6139644","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-6139644","identity":"rs-6139644","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"8U1c8b4HqxoKbykW_rLl7","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}