The Economic and Environmental Implications of Solenopsis invicta Invasion in the European Union

The Economic and Environmental Implications of Solenopsis invicta Invasion in the European Union | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article The Economic and Environmental Implications of Solenopsis invicta Invasion in the European Union Jean Marc Akole, Caroline Orset This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6370420/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract The red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta), recently detected in the European Union (Sicily, 2022), represents a significant and emerging threat to European agriculture. This study presents the first EU-scale economic assessment of prevention and control strategies for Solenopsis invicta, employing a cost–benefit analysis framework. We evaluate three management scenarios: no intervention, moderate surveillance (16.2% of vulnerable areas), and intensive surveillance (35.4%). Our results highlight that early and intensive surveillance efforts markedly reduce long-term economic impacts, especially for high-value crops such as citrus and potatoes. Projections based on climate change scenarios suggest that by 2070, nearly 30% of EU territory could become suitable for Solenopsisinvicta establishment, underlining the urgency of coordinated preventive measures. The analysis further reveals that even a one-year delay in implementing control strategies can double the economic burden. These findings emphasise the importance of timely detection, targeted surveillance, and harmonised EU-level action. By quantifying the economic consequences of invasion scenarios, this study provides evidence-based thresholds to inform policy decisions and investments in invasive pest management under current and future climate conditions. JEL Classification: D61, Q57, Q15, Q54, Q18 Agriculture Climate change Cost-benefit analysis Invasive species Prevention and control measures Solenopsis invicta Full Text Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6370420","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":448733943,"identity":"8ac9d9ca-2ad7-4881-afdc-2f292ee8ecc9","order_by":0,"name":"Jean Marc Akole","email":"","orcid":"","institution":"AgroParisTech Sciences et Ingenierie Agronomiques Forestieres de l'Eau et de l'Environnement","correspondingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Jean","middleName":"Marc","lastName":"Akole","suffix":""},{"id":448733944,"identity":"774654fa-da72-4afd-9413-8d682f7ebf2c","order_by":1,"name":"Caroline Orset","email":"data:image/png;base64,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","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3964-5717","institution":"AgroParisTech Sciences et Ingenierie Agronomiques Forestieres de l'Eau et de l'Environnement","correspondingAuthor":true,"prefix":"","firstName":"Caroline","middleName":"","lastName":"Orset","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2025-04-03 14:55:04","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6370420/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6370420/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":85598685,"identity":"f238111e-e108-4091-b98c-14b7d78ac616","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-06-28 17:39:31","extension":"pdf","order_by":1,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":641798,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"main2.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-6370420/v1_covered_7873b3a0-9009-4c97-91d2-f658dd819f34.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"\u003cp\u003eThe Economic and Environmental Implications of \u003cem\u003eSolenopsis invicta\u003c/em\u003e Invasion in the European Union\u003c/p\u003e","fulltext":[],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":false,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":true,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":true,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Agriculture, Climate change, Cost-benefit analysis, Invasive species, Prevention and control measures, Solenopsis invicta","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-6370420/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-6370420/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eThe red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta), recently detected in the European Union (Sicily, 2022), represents a significant and emerging threat to European agriculture. 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