Modest, not extreme, northern high latitude amplification during the Miocene shown by coccolith clumped isotopes

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Abstract Accurate predictions of the future climate response to CO 2 depend on the ability of climate models to simulate past analog warmer climates, like the Miocene. However, one key unresolved issue in paleoclimate modeling is reproducing the pronounced high-latitude warmth and relatively flat latitudinal temperature gradients inferred from proxy records. Here, we use clumped isotope thermometry—a method that sidesteps limitations of conventional proxies—on pure coccolith calcite from a high-latitude North Atlantic site, extending from the Mid Miocene to the Quaternary. Coccolith-derived clumped isotope temperatures are on average ~9 °C lower than alkenone estimates, representing the first proxy dataset to align with Miocene model outputs and calling into question the prevailing paradigm of pronounced high latitude amplification. This record highlights the need to continuously reevaluate proxy interpretations to achieve both reliable trends and absolute temperature values, while providing a more optimistic perspective of future high latitude climate response to CO 2 emissions.
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Modest, not extreme, northern high latitude amplification during the Miocene shown by coccolith clumped isotopes | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Modest, not extreme, northern high latitude amplification during the Miocene shown by coccolith clumped isotopes Luz Maria Mejia Ramirez, Stefano Bernasconi, Alvaro Fernandez, and 6 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6393158/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 09 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Accurate predictions of the future climate response to CO 2 depend on the ability of climate models to simulate past analog warmer climates, like the Miocene. However, one key unresolved issue in paleoclimate modeling is reproducing the pronounced high-latitude warmth and relatively flat latitudinal temperature gradients inferred from proxy records. Here, we use clumped isotope thermometry—a method that sidesteps limitations of conventional proxies—on pure coccolith calcite from a high-latitude North Atlantic site, extending from the Mid Miocene to the Quaternary. Coccolith-derived clumped isotope temperatures are on average ~9 °C lower than alkenone estimates, representing the first proxy dataset to align with Miocene model outputs and calling into question the prevailing paradigm of pronounced high latitude amplification. This record highlights the need to continuously reevaluate proxy interpretations to achieve both reliable trends and absolute temperature values, while providing a more optimistic perspective of future high latitude climate response to CO 2 emissions. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Palaeoclimate Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Biogeochemistry Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Biooceanography/Microbial biooceanography Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Palaeoceanography Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Climate and Earth system modelling Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryData2025.xlsx Supplementary dataset SupplementaryInformationMejiaetal982Natcomm.pdf Supplementary information for Modest, not extreme, northern high latitude amplification during the Miocene shown by coccolith clumped isotopes Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 09 Dec, 2025 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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