Modeling Diphtheria Transmission and Control Strategies in Nigeria using A Compartmental Model Approach

Modeling Diphtheria Transmission and Control Strategies in Nigeria using A Compartmental Model Approach | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Modeling Diphtheria Transmission and Control Strategies in Nigeria using A Compartmental Model Approach Fu’ad Muhammad Mukhtar, Kazeem Eyitayo Lasisi, Emmanuel Alphonsus Akpan, and 3 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-8941695/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Diphtheria remains a public health challenge in many settings, especially where vaccination coverage is incomplete and infections go undetected. A key challenge in controlling the disease is the often-overlooked role of asymptomatic individuals, who can silently sustain transmission. This study aims to develop a diphtheria vaccine treatment model to describe the transmission dynamics of diphtheria within the Nigerian population and to evaluate the impact of different vaccination scenarios and treatments on preventing and controlling diphtheria. Reported diphtheria cases in Nigeria were obtained from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) and used to estimate the model's parameters. We computed the basic reproduction number and received a mean value of the basic reproduction number ( \(\:{R}_{0}\) ) = 6.010, suggesting that diphtheria transmission can only be brought under control when existing interventions are improved. The sensitivity analysis identified key parameters that govern the transmission dynamics of diphtheria. Numerical solutions further showed that higher transmission rates rapidly reduce the susceptible population and intensify epidemics. In contrast, high vaccination coverage, timely completion of vaccine schedules, low immunity waning, and prompt treatment markedly reduce infections. While partial vaccination offers short-term protection, it is insufficient for long-term disease control without full immunization. The findings of this study reiterate the need for control strategies that go beyond symptomatic case management to include sustained vaccination, booster doses, and targeted efforts to limit asymptomatic transmission. The model offers practical insights to support evidence-based diphtheria control policies, particularly in resource-limited settings. Biostatistics Epidemiology Statistical Epidemiology Computational Biology Diphtheria modeling Mathematical modeling Infectious diseases Epidemiology Full Text Additional Declarations The authors declare no competing interests. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-8941695","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":595265514,"identity":"d76d377f-17ef-408b-b980-7dc315228c0b","order_by":0,"name":"Fu’ad Muhammad 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A key challenge in controlling the disease is the often-overlooked role of asymptomatic individuals, who can silently sustain transmission. This study aims to develop a diphtheria vaccine treatment model to describe the transmission dynamics of diphtheria within the Nigerian population and to evaluate the impact of different vaccination scenarios and treatments on preventing and controlling diphtheria. Reported diphtheria cases in Nigeria were obtained from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control (NCDC) and used to estimate the model's parameters. We computed the basic reproduction number and received a mean value of the basic reproduction number (\u003cspan class=\"InlineEquation\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"mathinline\"\u003e\\(\\:{R}_{0}\\)\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e)\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;6.010, suggesting that diphtheria transmission can only be brought under control when existing interventions are improved. The sensitivity analysis identified key parameters that govern the transmission dynamics of diphtheria. Numerical solutions further showed that higher transmission rates rapidly reduce the susceptible population and intensify epidemics. In contrast, high vaccination coverage, timely completion of vaccine schedules, low immunity waning, and prompt treatment markedly reduce infections. While partial vaccination offers short-term protection, it is insufficient for long-term disease control without full immunization. The findings of this study reiterate the need for control strategies that go beyond symptomatic case management to include sustained vaccination, booster doses, and targeted efforts to limit asymptomatic transmission. The model offers practical insights to support evidence-based diphtheria control policies, particularly in resource-limited settings.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Modeling Diphtheria Transmission and Control Strategies in Nigeria using A Compartmental Model Approach","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2026-02-25 00:47:10","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-8941695/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"863df2b7-248e-4889-9cd6-476ef301a29a","owner":[],"postedDate":"February 25th, 2026","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[{"id":63340987,"name":"Biostatistics"},{"id":63340988,"name":"Epidemiology"},{"id":63340989,"name":"Statistical Epidemiology"},{"id":63340990,"name":"Computational Biology"}],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2026-02-25T00:47:10+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2026-02-25 00:47:10","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-8941695","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-8941695","identity":"rs-8941695","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"XKTyCvWXoU3ODBz1xrDgd","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}