Economic Pressure, Government Attention, and Social Supervision from a Polycentric Governance Perspective: A Dynamic QCA Analysis of 30 Provinces in China

Improving regional environmental performance is crucial for strengthening environmental governance. Polycentric governance theory, which emphasizes the interaction of multiple actors—including market, government, and society—within rule-based constraints, provides an essential framework for understanding the mechanisms that shape environmental performance in complex institutional contexts. This paper, set within the context of China’s environmental governance, applies polycentric governance theory to develop a three-dimensional analytical framework of "economic pressure–government attention–social supervision." Using panel data from 30 Chinese provinces between 2015 and 2023, the study employs dynamic Qualitative Comparative Analysis (dynamic QCA) to examine the asymmetric impacts of various governance factors on regional environmental performance and their dynamic evolutionary mechanisms. The study finds that: (1) no single factor is necessary for either high or low environmental performance; (2) six configurational paths for achieving high environmental performance are identified, categorized into three types: "industry structure-driven," "multi-dimensional collaboration-driven," and "economic output–social media opinion dual-driven"; (3) these paths remain relatively stable over time but exhibit periodic fluctuations, with a clear evolution point around 2021; (4) these pathways show significant spatial differentiation. This study uncovers the multi-dimensional driving mechanisms behind improvements in regional environmental performance, offering both theoretical insights and practical guidance for local governments to develop differentiated environmental governance strategies tailored to regional contexts.