Effects of large carnivores, hunter harvest, and climate on the mortality of moose calves in a partially migratory population

Survival among juvenile ungulates is an important demographic trait affecting population dynamics. In many systems, juvenile ungulates experience mortality from large carnivores, hunter harvest and climate-related factors. These mortality sources often shift in importance both in space and time. While wolves (Canis lupus) predate on moose (Alces alces) throughout all seasons, brown bear (Ursus arctos) predation and human harvest happen primarily during early summer and fall, respectively. Hence, understanding how the mortality of juvenile moose is affected by predation, harvest and climate is crucial to adaptively managing populations and deciding sustainable harvest rates. We used data from 39 female moose in south-central Scandinavia to investigate the mortality of 77 calves in summer/fall and winter/spring, in relation to carnivore presence (defined as wolf presence and bear density), summer productivity, secondary road density, winter severity and migratory strategy (migratory versus resident) using logistic regressions. Summer mortality varied significantly between years but was not correlated to any of our covariates. In winter, calf mortality was higher with deeper snow in areas with wolves compared to areas without and increased more strongly with an increasing proportion of clearcuts/young forests in the presence of wolves compared to when wolves were absent. Lastly, increasing hunting risk was associated with higher calf mortality, and migratory females had higher calf mortality compared to stationary ones. Our study provides useful insight into mortality rates of moose calves coexisting with two large carnivores and with an intensive harvest pressure. Increasing our understanding of the mechanisms driving calf mortality both in summer and winter will become increasingly important if the populations of wolves and bears continue to expand and the moose population declines, and both summers and winters become warmer.