Local over Global: Anthropogenic Stressors Outpace Climate Impacts on Coral Reef Collapse in the South China Sea

Local over Global: Anthropogenic Stressors Outpace Climate Impacts on Coral Reef Collapse in the South China Sea | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Local over Global: Anthropogenic Stressors Outpace Climate Impacts on Coral Reef Collapse in the South China Sea Hongwei Zhao, Huili Xu, Yuanchao Li, Tong Liu, Binxue Wang, Lin Ma, and 19 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6545472/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 18 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Coral reefs are declining globally, but region-specific drivers of degradation remain poorly quantified, hindering targeted conservation. By collecting two decades of field data from 102 sites across 22 coral reefs in the northern South China Sea (SCS) and employing panel regressions and structural equation modeling, we identify key stressors that are responsible for 40% (17–50%) of the declines in live coral cover (LCC). Local anthropogenic stressors—overfishing, nutrient pollution from agriculture and coastal urbanization—collectively explain 73% of LCC variance, outweighing climate-associated thermal stress. We then propose an Integrated Coast-Reef Management (ICRM) framework that couples land-sea interventions—sustainable fisheries, watershed nutrient controls, and CoTS outbreak controls prioritization. Spatial simulations indicate that this synergistical strategy could elevate LCC by two to four times under global warming scenarios, avoiding reef calcification collapse (LCC > 10%). Our findings contribute to coral conservation paradigms by highlighting tailored strategies at the local level beyond globalized approaches, which offer scalable solutions for regions facing similar pressures. Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Conservation biology Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Sustainability Biological sciences/Ecology/Restoration ecology Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files Supplementalinformation.pdf Local over Global: Anthropogenic Stressors Outpace Climate Impacts on Coral Reef Collapse in the South China Sea Socioeconomicdata1.xlsx Supplementary Data 2 coralreefdata1.xlsx Supplementary Data 1 rs.pdf Reporting Summary Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 18 Mar, 2026 Read the published version in Nature Communications → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6545472","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":473281605,"identity":"b08c9337-f388-4f4e-af05-5cf62c669bb0","order_by":0,"name":"Hongwei 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