Quantifying Environmental and Energy Assets for the Geopolitics of Climate Change Mitigation

Quantifying Environmental and Energy Assets for the Geopolitics of Climate Change Mitigation | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Quantifying Environmental and Energy Assets for the Geopolitics of Climate Change Mitigation Guanna Pan, Ulrike Kornek, Chen Gong, Edna Molina Bacca, Gunnar Luderer, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6932227/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract How do climate change impacts and mitigation efforts reshape the geopolitical distribution of economic assets? This study uses integrated assessment models, climate projections, economic damage models, and biosphere data to assess the change in the economic value of fossil fuels, climate change damages, renewable energy, and land carbon sequestration under different climate change mitigation scenarios. Using k-means clustering, we group countries into five distinct clusters based on their economic, energy and environmental stakes, revealing disparities in economic losses and mitigation benefits. A similarity analysis uncovers shared structural characteristics across countries. Notably, the world’s largest economies—the USA, the EU, and China—fall into the Moderate-impact cluster, such that the strongest economic power lies within countries without the strongest incentives to push for decarbonization. Our findings provide stakeholders with information about possible allies for climate action and we highlight how geopolitical roles may be used to enhance climate change mitigation. Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change mitigation Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Environmental economics Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files SupplementaryInformation.docx Supplementary Information SupplementaryFig.1.png Supplementary Fig. 1 SupplementaryFig.2.png Supplementary Fig. 2 SupplementaryFig.3.png Supplementary Fig. 3 SupplementaryFig.4.png Supplementary Fig. 4 SupplementaryFig.5.png Supplementary Fig. 5 SupplementaryFig.6.1.png Supplementary Fig. 6.1 SupplementaryFig.6.2.png Supplementary Fig. 6.2 SupplementaryFig.6.3.png Supplementary Fig. 6.3 SupplementaryFig.6.4.png Supplementary Fig. 6.4 SupplementaryFig.7.png Supplementary Fig. 7 SupplementaryData1.xlsx Supplementary Data 1 SupplementaryData2.xlsx Supplementary Data 2 Cite Share Download PDF Status: Posted Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6932227","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":477187838,"identity":"37552abc-e119-4b36-b1a9-45ea494b6532","order_by":0,"name":"Guanna 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