COVID Reallocation of Spending: The Effect of Remote Working on the Retail and Hospitality Sector

A defining economic outcome from the COVID-19 pandemic is the unprecedented shift towards remote working from home. The extent and duration of this shift will have important consequences for local economies and especially the retail and hospitality sectors which depend on business around the workplace. Using a new bespoke, nationally representative survey of UK working age adults we analyse their ability and willingness to work remotely, and the consequences for spending on food, beverages, retail and entertainment around the workplace. We establish five key facts. (i) The post-pandemic change will be large: the fraction of work done from home will increase by 20 percentage points over its pre-pandemic level. (ii) The Dingel-Neiman (2020) assessment of remote working potential by occupation are reasonably predictive of what workers and employers expect to do, with a correlation coefficient of over 0.7. (iii) Relocation will be higher for better paid professional occupations, which will skew spending toward the most socio-economically affluent geographical areas. (iv) The corresponding geographical shift in annual retail and hospitality spending will be £3.0 billion with more remote working shifting demand away from urban areas. (v) On average, a 1% change in neighbourhood workforce changes local spending by 0.25%.