The spatial-temporal association between mrteorological factors and bacillary dysentery

Background: Bacillary dysentery remains a worldwide public health problem, which has been found to have spatial–temporal heterogeneity, however most studies have only focused on the disease from either a time or space perspective, the spatial–temporal association between them has been still unclear. Method: In this study, the Bayesian space–time hierarchy model was used to identify the spatial-temporal patterns of this disease in Shandong province, China. And then GeoDetector was used to quantify the determinant power of meteorological factors and their interactive effect among different regions in Shandong. Results: The results indicated that, temporally, the incidence peaked in summer. Geographically, the hot spots were distributed discretely among three regions, among which the effect of meteorological factors on this disease exist significant discrepancy. The most important two dominant factors of eastern coastal region were wind speed and average temperature, with determinant powers of 28% and 25%, respectively. The first two dominant factors of western inland region were average temperature and precipitation, with determinant powers of 47% and 32%, respectively. The first two dominant factors of middle region were average temperature and wind speed, with determinant powers of 66% and 48%, respectively. Conclusions: These findings suggest that in a hot and humid environment would boost the transmission of bacillary dysentery, which can be served as a suggestion and basis for the surveillance and will be helpful for this disease control and implementing disease-prevention policies.