Climate Fluctuations and Growing Sensitivity of Grape Production in Abruzzo (Central Italy) Over the Past Sixty Years

The sensitivity of the agricultural production system to short- and long-term climate variations significantly affects the availability and prices of food resources, raising relevant issues of sustainability and food security. To evaluate the vulnerability of crop yield to climate fluctuations and to determine whether it changes over time, we conducted a statistical analysis focusing on one of the main crops in the Abruzzo region (central Italy): grape. The study spans the four provinces of Abruzzo and involves the analysis of temperature, precipitation and grape yield over the sixty-year period from 1952 to 2014. Our findings reveal a climatic trend in the region, shifting from temperate to temperate-arid conditions, along with an increasing correlation between crop yield and climatic fluctuations. This suggests a rising sensitivity of the agricultural productive system to climate fluctuations over time. Despite progressively growing yields in the agricultural production system, the increase in sensitivity to climatic fluctuations indicates an inability to maintain high performance under unfavorable climatic conditions. On the other hand, yield fluctuations consistently pose a potential threat to market equilibria.