Assessing the variability effect of land use patterns, rainfall and temperature trends on land degradation across Ibadan, Nigeria

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This study employed remote sensing technology to investigate vegetation patterns and trends in rainfall and temperature in Ibadan, Nigeria, from 2013 to 2023, with a focus on their impact on land degradation. The objectives were to assess spatiotemporal changes in vegetation cover, temperature, and rainfall distribution; identify areas affected by land degradation; and evaluate the influence of weather variables on vegetation dynamics. Data from NASA Power and the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET) were combined with Landsat 8 imagery processed using Google Earth Engine (GEE). The analysis revealed substantial rainfall variability across Ibadan, with higher levels in the northern and central regions affecting vegetation health, as reflected by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Land surface temperature (LST) analysis indicated a moderate negative correlation with NDVI (r = -0.39), demonstrating that rising temperatures adversely impact vegetation health. Additionally, a weak positive correlation (r = 0.11) between land use and land cover (LULC) and rainfall highlighted the role of urbanisation in shaping temperature and precipitation patterns. The findings underscore the importance of sustainable urban planning and land management strategies, including green infrastructure and eco-friendly building practices, to mitigate the effects of weather variability on vegetation and land degradation. Ecosystem Google Earth Engine (GEE) Land cover Vegetation health Land Surface Temperature (LST) Figures Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 Figure 6 Figure 7 Figure 8 Figure 9 Figure 10 1. Introduction Land degradation has emerged as a pressing global environmental challenge, considerably threatening ecosystems, agriculture, and human livelihoods, especially in urban areas which are often characterized a complex interplay of natural and human-induced factors. The eradication of forest cover often driven by agricultural expansion and urban development leads to soil erosion, biodiversity loss, and disruptions in hydrological cycles (Lambin & Geist, 2006 ). Land degradation involves a decline in land quality and productivity orchestrated by factors such as deforestation, urbanization, industrial activities, and inappropriate agricultural practices. This degradation leads to the deterioration of soil fertility, biodiversity, and the capacity of the land to provide essential ecosystem services. Urban sprawl and industrial activities are identified as principal drivers of land degradation in Ibadan. The rapid urbanization in the area prompts the conversion of natural landscapes into urban environments, resulting in habitat destruction, increased surface runoff, and soil compaction (Johnson et al., 2020 ; Adewale et al., 2021). The proliferation of impervious surfaces such as roads and buildings reduce groundwater recharge and heightens flooding risks, thereby exacerbating soil erosion and degradation (Seto et al., 2012 ). Furthermore, the prevalence of informal settlements often correlates with inadequate waste management systems, facilitating the unregulated disposal of solid waste and consequent soil contamination (Adelekan, 2010 ). Industrial activities invariably contribute to soil degradation through the discharge of pollutants, including heavy metals and organic compounds into the environment (Liu et al., 2014 ; Nwachukwu et al., 2016). These pollutants not only compromise land quality but also present serious health risks to the local populace (Oladele et al., 2019 ). Additionally, the extraction of natural resources for industrial purposes often culminates in deforestation and loss of vegetation cover, which further intensifies land degradation (Ayanlade et al., 2020 ). Moreover, the impacts of weather variability further aggravate the challenges associated with land degradation. Fluctuating rainfall patterns and rising temperatures significantly influence soil moisture, vegetative health, and overall land conditions (IPCC, 2019 ). An understanding of these weather dynamics is crucial for analyzing land degradation, as they elucidate the environmental factors that instigate degradation processes. Prolonged droughts may trigger desertification, while intense rainfall can lead to severe soil erosion (Feng & Liu, 2015 ). In the context of Ibadan, an assessment of rainfall and temperature trends over the last decade is essential for determining the dynamics of land degradation and pinpointing at-risk areas. By integrating climatic data with vegetation cover indices, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), this research will uncover significant spatial and temporal patterns of degradation (Gao & Liu, 2011; Tucker, 1979 ). Through this analysis, it becomes possible to identify hotspots of degradation and outline areas that require immediate intervention. In Ibadan, the rapid increase in population and urban sprawl has exacerbated deforestation, resulting in considerable vegetation loss and adversely affecting the local weather while contributing to wider regional weather shifts (Ayanlade et al., 2020 ). Urbanization and industrialization are other critical contributors to land degradation in rapidly expanding cities. The transition from natural landscapes to urban environments results in habitat destruction, increased surface runoff, and soil compaction (Seto et al., 2012 ). Additionally, industrial activities exacerbate the degradation process through pollution and soil contamination, threatening food security, water resources, and public health (Liu et al., 2014 ). Urban sprawl and industrial activities are identified as principal drivers of land degradation in Ibadan. The rapid urbanization in the area prompts the conversion of natural landscapes into urban environments, resulting in habitat destruction, increased surface runoff, and soil compaction (Johnson et al., 2020 ; Adewale et al., 2021). The proliferation of impervious surfaces such as roads and buildings reduces groundwater recharge and heightens flooding risks, thereby exacerbating soil erosion and degradation (Seto et al., 2012 ). Furthermore, the prevalence of informal settlements often correlates with inadequate waste management systems, facilitating the unregulated disposal of solid waste and consequent soil contamination (Adelekan, 2010 ). Industrial activities invariably contribute to soil degradation through the discharge of pollutants, including heavy metals and organic compounds into the environment (Liu et al., 2014 ; Nwachukwu et al., 2016). These pollutants not only compromise land quality but also present serious health risks to the local populace (Oladele et al., 2019 ). Additionally, the extraction of natural resources for industrial purposes often culminates in deforestation and loss of vegetation cover, which further intensifies land degradation (Ayanlade et al., 2020 ). Consequently, urbanization and industrialization together instigate considerable environmental transformations that diminish land quality in Ibadan. This study addresses a critical gap in updated data on land degradation, which is worsened by rapid urbanization, industrialization, and unsustainable land-use practices. Current research often does not integrate weather parameters and vegetation indices, highlighting the need for comprehensive assessments using advanced geospatial technologies. The primary aim is to evaluate land degradation in Ibadan, Nigeria, by analyzing rainfall, temperature, vegetation cover, and land use. Specific objectives include examining rainfall and temperature trends in Ibadan from 2013 to 2023, assessing spatiotemporal changes in vegetation cover for 2013, 2018, and 2023, identifying areas of degradation between 2013 and 2023, and exploring the relationship between land degradation and weather factors. This study operates on the hypothesis that no significant relationship exists between land degradation and climatic factors like rainfall and temperature. By synthesizing weather data with vegetation indices, the research seeks to provide insights for effective policy and management strategies aimed at combating land degradation and promoting sustainable development in the region. Ultimately, this analysis aims to deepen the understanding of land degradation dynamics and inform essential policy decisions for urban environments. 2. Materials and Methods 2.1 Study area Ibadan, the capital city of Oyo State, Nigeria, stands as a vital urban center in the southwestern region of the country. It is situated at geographical coordinates of Latitude: 7.0° N to 8.0° N, Longitude: 3.0° E to 4.0° E (Fig. 1 ). The city is situated in a tropical wet and dry climate zone, defined by a distinct wet season from March to October and a dry season from November to February. The average annual temperature ranges between 25°C and 28°C, with average annual rainfall reaching approximately 1,200 mm. Nevertheless, climate change has introduced noticeable variations in these climatic patterns, including increased temperatures and altered rainfall regimes (Adebayo et al., 2017; Oguntunde et al., 2018). The natural vegetation, primarily tropical forest savanna, has significantly changed due to urbanization and agriculture, raising concerns about biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation (Adelekan, 2010 ). Rapid urbanization has led to extensive land use changes, with urban sprawl and industrial growth replacing agricultural land and green spaces, creating urban heat islands (Johnson et al., 2020 ; Adewale et al., 2021). This expansion has negatively impacted local water bodies, leading to challenges in water quality and supply (Oladele et al., 2019 ). Economically, Ibadan is a trade and manufacturing hub, highlighted by the Dugbe Market, and serves as a cultural center, housing the University of Ibadan and other educational institutions (Falola & Heaton, 2008 ). However, the city faces environmental issues like deforestation, waste management problems, and water pollution, further degrading vegetation and worsening climate change impacts (Adepoju et al., 2022; Nabegu, 2010 ). Despite these challenges, Ibadan retains considerable biodiversity in remnant forest patches and sacred groves, with Agodi Gardens providing crucial habitats (Adelekan, 2010 ). 2.2 Data sources Total annual rainfall time series data between 2013 and 2023 was obtained from NASA POWER (Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources) project ( https://power.larc.nasa.gov/ ). Information on land surface temperature (LST), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and land use and land cover (LULC) pattern were derived from Landsat 8 satellite imagery for the periods 2013, 2018 and 2023, and processed on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. Landsat imagery provides a relatively high spatial resolution of 30 m which is ideal for mesoscale studies. 2.3 Data processing The analysis for land use and land cover (LULC) classification in Ibadan utilized Landsat 8 imagery from 2013 and 2023 through Google Earth Engine (GEE). Initially, Landsat images were imported, with cloud masking applied to ensure accuracy by removing clouds and shadows. Radiometric and atmospheric corrections standardized reflectance values to ensure consistency over the years. Key spectral bands, including red, green, blue, near-infrared (NIR), and shortwave infrared (SWIR), were selected alongside various indices like NDVI and the Normalized Difference Built-Up Index (NDBI). These formed the basis for training supervised classification algorithms using manually selected sample points across different land cover types.Once the LULC classification was completed in GEE, the classified images for both years were exported to ArcMap for comprehensive analysis and visualization. In ArcMap, the final maps were enhanced for interpretability, using distinct color codes to represent various land cover classes, with post-classification refinement techniques applied to correct inaccuracies. By comparing LULC maps from 2013 and 2023, researchers identified significant land use trends, crucial for promoting sustainable management practices. The study also included thorough data analysis, employing both statistical and GIS techniques. Preprocessing ensured data quality, involving the cleaning of NASA Power rainfall data and processing Landsat 8 imagery for Land Surface Temperature (LST), NDVI, and LULC classification. Trend analysis utilizing statistical tools in Excel helped uncover significant patterns, while correlation analysis explored relationships between weather variables and land degradation indicators using Pearson correlation coefficients computed through R programming. Additionally, GIS software such as ArcGIS and QGIS facilitated spatial and temporal analyses, highlighting interactions between variables. Ground truthing through field surveys further validated remote sensing results, ensuring the reliability of classifications and enabling a thorough understanding of land degradation in Ibadan. This comprehensive approach melded quantitative and qualitative methods, offering insights for targeted mitigation strategies against land degradation. 3. Results 3.1 Spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall The spatial distribution of rainfall in Ibadan for 2013, shown in Fig. 2 , reveals significant precipitation variability across the region. Rainfall in the southern areas ranged between 1186 and 1228 mm, supporting local agriculture and water availability for domestic and agricultural purposes. In the northern and central parts, rainfall reached up to 1267 mm, promoting lush vegetation and enhanced agricultural productivity. This higher precipitation also contributes to groundwater recharge and supports the local hydrological cycle. However, the western regions experienced lower rainfall levels, ranging from 1054 to 1095 mm, indicating drier conditions. By 2018, the rainfall distribution pattern shifted, with the eastern and northeastern parts receiving up to 1314 mm of rainfall. This increase marked a notable change compared to 2013, while the central region experienced a decrease in rainfall levels. In 2023, a significant rise in rainfall in the western parts of Ibadan, reaching up to 1314 mm. In contrast, the northern and eastern areas recorded moderate rainfall levels. These varying precipitation patterns highlight the complex climatic variability across Ibadan over the study period. The temporal trend of average annual rainfall in Ibadan from 2013 to 2023 is depicted in Fig. 3 . The data shows significant fluctuations in annual rainfall, with noticeable peaks in 2014 and 2019. Despite these fluctuations, there is an overall increasing trend in rainfall over the decade. This increasing trend aligns with global observations of changing precipitation patterns due to climate change, which have been linked to rising temperatures and altered atmospheric circulation patterns (IPCC, 2021). The periods of higher rainfall, such as in 2014 and 2019, correlate with observed increases in vegetation growth, as more water availability supports plant health and growth. Conversely, years with lower rainfall may contribute to water stress and potential land degradation. 3.2 Spatiotemporal pattern of land surface temperature The LST map for Ibadan in 2013 reveals considerable temperature variability, with the central and northeastern regions exhibiting high temperatures between 30.26 and 32.8°C (Fig. 4 ). These areas correspond to urban heat islands characterized by dense development and reduced vegetation. In contrast, the southwestern parts, marked in green, had lower temperatures ranging from 20.1 to 22.64°C due to dense vegetation and water bodies, which provide cooling effects through shading and evapotranspiration. By 2018, high-temperature zones expanded significantly, particularly in the central and eastern regions, with temperatures ranging from 31.89 to 33.97°C. Cooler regions persisted in areas with higher vegetation cover, maintaining temperatures between 23.09 and 25.98°C. In 2023, the northeastern and central regions experienced further temperature increases, with some areas reaching 36.20°C. These rising temperatures indicate the continued impact of urban expansion and the decline in vegetation cover. Figure 5 highlights the temporal pattern of average annual LST in Ibadan from 2013 to 2023, showing a steady increase from approximately 28°C in 2013 to 29°C in 2023, with peaks in 2020 and 2021 likely linked to urban growth and vegetation loss. 3.3 Spatiotemporal pattern of vegetation health The NDVI analysis for Ibadan reveals a decline in vegetation health over the period from 2013 to 2023, highlighting the effects of urbanization and land use changes. In 2013, NDVI values ranged from − 0.01 to 0.74 (Fig. 10 ). Sparse vegetation and degraded lands were represented by lower NDVI values (-0.01 to 0.14), predominantly located in urban centers such as Ibadan North, Ibadan North-East, and Ibadan South-West. Conversely, peripheral and rural areas like Ido, Oluyole, Egbeda, and Lagelu showed higher NDVI values (0.59 to 0.74), reflecting denser vegetation cover. By 2018, NDVI values declined to a range of -0.11 to 0.70 (Fig. 11). Urban areas continued to expand, with a noticeable increase in regions with lower NDVI values, indicating ongoing urbanization and vegetation loss. Rural areas maintained relatively higher NDVI values but showed initial signs of degradation in some locations due to suburban expansion and agricultural activities. In 2023, NDVI values further decreased, with maximum values dropping to 0.57 (Fig. 12). Areas with sparse vegetation significantly increased, while regions with dense vegetation diminished, reflecting continued urban sprawl and infrastructure development. Urban cores such as Ibadan North, Ibadan North-East, and Ibadan South-West exhibited consistently low NDVI values throughout the decade, while suburban areas like Ido, Egbeda, and Lagelu showed a reduction in vegetation cover. Peripheral and rural areas, including Oluyole and Ona-Ara, experienced a noticeable decline in dense vegetation cover, linked to agricultural expansion and changing land use practices. 3.4 Pattern of Land use changes and land degradation In 2013, vegetation dominated the landscape, particularly in peripheral and rural areas such as Ido, Oluyole, and Ona-Ara, which exhibited extensive green cover. Built-up areas were primarily concentrated in central Ibadan, including Ibadan North, Ibadan North-East, and Ibadan South-West, with limited encroachment into vegetated zones (Fig. 7 ). Bare land was minimal, signifying a relatively stable environment with low levels of degradation. By 2023, a notable increase in bare land and built-up areas was observed, especially in central and eastern Ibadan. Vegetation in peripheral areas diminished significantly, marking a shift from vegetated landscapes to urbanized and degraded lands. Key transitions included an increase of approximately 1,387.23 km² from vegetation to built-up areas and 400.57 km² from vegetation to bare land (Fig. 8 ). The classification achieved a high overall accuracy of 95%, underscoring the reliability of these findings. In Figs. 9 and 10 , the increase in bare land and built-up areas in Ibadan between 2013 and 2023 is indicative of the challenges posed by rapid urbanization. As more land is cleared for development, the natural landscape is altered, reducing the amount of vegetation and leading to several environmental issues. Deforestation, a major consequence of this process, not only destroys habitats for local flora and fauna but also disrupts the ecological balance. The reduction in green areas means fewer trees and plants to absorb carbon dioxide, which can contribute to increased atmospheric carbon levels and exacerbate climate change. Statistical correlations among variables indicated significant environmental interactions (Table 1 ). A strong negative correlation between Land Surface Temperature (LST) and NDVI (r = -0.39***) revealed the detrimental impact of elevated temperatures on vegetation health. Similarly, LST negatively correlated with rainfall (r = -0.23**), highlighting the role of reduced precipitation in exacerbating soil moisture stress and degradation. The negative correlation between LULC changes and NDVI (r = -0.42***) further demonstrated the adverse effects of urban expansion on vegetation cover. Table 1 Pearson’s correlation coefficients of the selected variables LST LULC RAINFALL NDVI LST 1 0.07 -0.23** -0.39*** LULC 0.07 1 0.11 -0.42*** RAINFALL -0.23** 0.11 1 0.06 NDVI -0.39*** -0.42*** 0.06 1 4. Discussion 4.1 Rainfall variability and impacts (2013–2023) Rainfall distribution in Ibadan demonstrates significant variability across spatial and temporal scales, with notable implications for agriculture, water resources, and ecosystem health. In 2013, moderate rainfall in the southern regions (1186 to 1228 mm) supported agriculture and maintained ecological balance (Olaniran et al., 2015 ). Northern and central areas experienced higher rainfall (up to 1267 mm), benefiting groundwater recharge and vegetation growth, critical for sustaining the hydrological cycle (Ajayi et al., 2019). However, western regions faced challenges from lower precipitation levels (1054 to 1095 mm), which exacerbated soil erosion risks and reduced soil fertility. Strategies such as rainwater harvesting and irrigation advancements are essential for these areas (Adeyemi et al., 2018). By 2018, shifts in rainfall patterns suggested climatic influences. Increased precipitation in the eastern and northeastern parts (up to 1314 mm) pointed to changing atmospheric dynamics (Olaniyan et al., 2020 ), while reduced rainfall in central areas highlighted the impact of urbanisation on the hydrological cycle, affecting water availability and ecosystem health. In 2023, a notable rise in rainfall in the western parts (up to 1314 mm) presented both opportunities for agriculture and food security and challenges like flooding and soil erosion, necessitating enhanced drainage systems (Balogun et al., 2022 ). Conversely, northern and eastern areas with moderate rainfall required water conservation measures and sustainable agricultural practices to address lower precipitation levels. These patterns align with broader climatic changes observed in Nigeria, linked to global dynamics such as increasing rainfall variability in urban centers like Ibadan (Ghalhari et al., 2022 ; Ifabiyi & Ojoye, 2013). While higher precipitation improves water availability for agriculture and reforestation, it raises concerns about urban flooding, especially where drainage systems are inadequate (Odjugo, 2010). To address these challenges, integrating geospatial technologies and machine learning for real-time monitoring can enhance disaster preparedness and infrastructure resilience. Policymakers must incorporate climatic data into urban planning to build adaptive capacities aligned with global sustainable development goals (Oyekale, 2019 ). 4.2 Temperature, NDVI, and land degradation The observed LST variation highlights the impact of urbanization on local climate (Fig. 4 ). Urban areas exhibit high temperatures due to heat absorption and retention by impervious surfaces like asphalt and concrete, exacerbating the urban heat island effect (Ghalhari et al., 2022 ). Reduced vegetation cover further diminishes cooling effects through shading and evapotranspiration (Odjugo, 2010). By 2018, expanded high-temperature zones reflected intensified urbanization and deforestation, aligning with findings by Ifabiyi and Ojoye (2013), which established a direct link between vegetation loss and heat retention. Cooler zones with vegetation and water bodies underscore the importance of green infrastructure in temperature moderation. In 2023, central and northeastern regions experienced LST peaks of up to 36.20°C, reflecting ongoing urbanization and reduced vegetation (Akbari et al., 2001 ). Rising temperatures impose challenges such as increased energy demands for cooling, heat stress, and infrastructure damage (Santamouris, 2015). Vulnerable populations, including children and the elderly, are particularly at risk (Harlan et al., 2006 ). This warming trend corresponds with global patterns of urban heat island intensification, as documented by Oke (1982), and the adverse impacts of urban expansion and vegetation loss. Urban green spaces are critical for mitigating these effects, providing ecosystem services like cooling, air quality improvement, and biodiversity support (Bowler et al., 2010 ; Gill et al., 2007 ). Declining NDVI values from 2013 to 2023 further illustrate the environmental costs of urbanization in Ibadan. Persistent low NDVI values in urban cores and declining vegetation in suburban areas such as Ido, Egbeda, and Lagelu reflect suburban sprawl and agricultural expansion (Adepoju, Millington, & Tansey, 2016 ). The loss of dense vegetation in peripheral regions such as Oluyole and Ona-Ara underscores the pressures of deforestation, agricultural expansion, and climate variability. These findings corroborate Owolabi et al. (2019), who observed similar trends in other Nigerian cities. The observed correlations between LST, rainfall, and NDVI emphasize the interplay of climatic and anthropogenic factors in driving land degradation. Rising temperatures and reduced vegetation affect ecosystems by lowering carbon sequestration, increasing soil erosion, and exacerbating biodiversity loss (Ayanlade et al., 2020 ; Feng & Liu, 2015 ). Addressing these challenges requires sustainable urban planning that balances infrastructure development with environmental conservation (Seto et al., 2012 ; Mutanga & Kumar, 2019 ). Remote sensing tools like NDVI provide invaluable insights for monitoring vegetation changes and supporting informed decision-making to promote resilience in the rapidly transforming landscapes of Ibadan. 5. Conclusion Land degradation presents a critical environmental challenge with significant repercussions for ecosystems, agriculture, and human livelihoods worldwide. In urban areas such as Ibadan, Nigeria, the interplay of natural and anthropogenic factors amplifies these concerns. This study highlights the patterns and extent of land degradation in Ibadan over the past decade, revealing that deforestation and vegetation loss have escalated due to rapid population growth and urban sprawl. Additionally, desertification, primarily driven by unsustainable land use practices, alongside urbanization and industrialization, contributes to habitat destruction, pollution, and soil degradation. The impact of climate change further complicates these issues, affecting soil moisture and vegetation growth. Overall, the research emphasizes the urgent need for sustainable urban planning and effective environmental management strategies to mitigate land degradation and enhance resilience in Ibadan. To effectively combat land degradation in Ibadan, comprehensive and integrative policy frameworks must be established. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-5548430","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":390970298,"identity":"a080f26c-3d46-4a66-acfe-6b4cef46f821","order_by":0,"name":"Abiodun Ayooluwa Areola","email":"data:image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAAZAAAAAyAQMAAABI0h/eAAAABlBMVEX///8AAABVwtN+AAAACXBIWXMAAA7EAAAOxAGVKw4bAAAA30lEQVRIiWNgGAWjYBACA2YGBgkIk7mB4QMDQwIpWhgbGGcQpYUBSQszDzFazNmZD97m3WGXz8/e2PjZts0uj5+9gfHDxxzcWiyb2ZKtec8kW87sOdgsnduWXCzZc4BZcuY2PA47zGMmzdvGbGBwI7EBqIU5ccONBDZmXsJa6g3sbyQ2/7Zsqyday2EDA4nENmnGtsOEtYD8Yjm37biBxJmDbZY9544ngjyF1y/m/IcP3njbVm3A3958+MaPsurEfvbmgx8+4tGCChjZwGQDsepB4A8pikfBKBgFo2CkAABLo08cSMIKkwAAAABJRU5ErkJggg==","orcid":"https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4576-6179","institution":"University of Ibadan","correspondingAuthor":true,"submittingAuthor":false,"prefix":"","firstName":"Abiodun","middleName":"Ayooluwa","lastName":"Areola","suffix":""}],"badges":[],"createdAt":"2024-11-29 10:47:12","currentVersionCode":1,"declarations":"","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5548430/v1","doiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5548430/v1","draftVersion":[],"editorialEvents":[],"editorialNote":"","failedWorkflow":false,"files":[{"id":71763347,"identity":"868927c9-c43b-4df2-8a36-320614d5cff4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-12-18 11:18:57","extension":"jpeg","order_by":1,"title":"Figure 1","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":87552,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eMap of Ibadan, Nigeria.\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"1.jpeg","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5548430/v1/50d75d46fd0debdb3467de6c.jpeg"},{"id":71763352,"identity":"82068c31-6459-4090-b145-806229cace7d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-12-18 11:18:57","extension":"png","order_by":2,"title":"Figure 2","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":181379,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSpatial pattern of rainfall in Ibadan in 2013, 2018 and 2023\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"2.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5548430/v1/d1fea5947b4dcd0d546e1371.png"},{"id":71763346,"identity":"48a48225-9a72-4793-b705-3827a2fdca3a","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-12-18 11:18:57","extension":"png","order_by":3,"title":"Figure 3","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":45139,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eThe temporal pattern of annual rainfall in Ibadan from 2013 to 2023\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"3.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5548430/v1/d55e1f73239e31f441a010b1.png"},{"id":71763350,"identity":"ba8e068c-b498-4b33-a491-9f064587ed51","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-12-18 11:18:57","extension":"png","order_by":4,"title":"Figure 4","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":513663,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSpatial pattern of land surface temperature in Ibadan for 2013, 2018 and 2023\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"4.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5548430/v1/3f3aea5edf391372eb6d3d39.png"},{"id":71763376,"identity":"e1bf50a2-48f7-4216-a814-b7c85db17730","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-12-18 11:18:58","extension":"png","order_by":5,"title":"Figure 5","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":31259,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eThe temporal pattern of average LST in Ibadan from 2013 to 2023\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"5.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5548430/v1/b5b3408abf8b7c259d99d25f.png"},{"id":71763349,"identity":"72c6eeaa-fe02-40f6-8f73-4ef1a78d9e2d","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-12-18 11:18:57","extension":"png","order_by":6,"title":"Figure 6","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":486826,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eSpatial pattern of NDVI for 2013, 2018 and 2023\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"6.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5548430/v1/8dcf8f7142f06741c314678a.png"},{"id":71764730,"identity":"5f3debe4-8a57-40c8-9588-320138ece2c4","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-12-18 11:34:58","extension":"png","order_by":7,"title":"Figure 7","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":60218,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eLULC pattern in Ibadan for 2013 and 2023\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"7.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5548430/v1/74922e6c774ac2c7f671e30a.png"},{"id":71763348,"identity":"61b9f6ac-7f76-4913-8e2e-d8eee247d788","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-12-18 11:18:57","extension":"png","order_by":8,"title":"Figure 8","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":41212,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eLULC changes in Ibadan between 2013 and 2023\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"8.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5548430/v1/2fab0ddc108a61d28eae4609.png"},{"id":71763354,"identity":"91e92c12-7e08-49bc-8096-27ef330dff38","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-12-18 11:18:57","extension":"png","order_by":9,"title":"Figure 9","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":604562,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eLandscape transformation in selected parts of Ibadan\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"9.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5548430/v1/d83ce9c594e23eede0226aab.png"},{"id":71764727,"identity":"84621b2b-a787-4c35-8746-b92d0b447654","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2024-12-18 11:34:57","extension":"png","order_by":10,"title":"Figure 10","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"figure","size":936019,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"\u003cp\u003eLULC map of highly degraded areas in Ibadan\u003c/p\u003e","description":"","filename":"10.png","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5548430/v1/d427f16f0f7215ffb1986169.png"},{"id":74486276,"identity":"cf4f2881-7531-4f77-9db5-5498b1bb1ecc","added_by":"auto","created_at":"2025-01-22 17:55:19","extension":"pdf","order_by":0,"title":"","display":"","copyAsset":false,"role":"manuscript-pdf","size":3044357,"visible":true,"origin":"","legend":"","description":"","filename":"manuscript.pdf","url":"https://assets-eu.researchsquare.com/files/rs-5548430/v1/afa53cbd-2eda-46d5-96f1-0cc89b7cbb8d.pdf"}],"financialInterests":"","formattedTitle":"Assessing the variability effect of land use patterns, rainfall and temperature trends on land degradation across Ibadan, Nigeria","fulltext":[{"header":"1. Introduction","content":"\u003cp\u003eLand degradation has emerged as a pressing global environmental challenge, considerably threatening ecosystems, agriculture, and human livelihoods, especially in urban areas which are often characterized a complex interplay of natural and human-induced factors. The eradication of forest cover often driven by agricultural expansion and urban development leads to soil erosion, biodiversity loss, and disruptions in hydrological cycles (Lambin \u0026amp; Geist, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR15\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2006\u003c/span\u003e). Land degradation involves a decline in land quality and productivity orchestrated by factors such as deforestation, urbanization, industrial activities, and inappropriate agricultural practices. This degradation leads to the deterioration of soil fertility, biodiversity, and the capacity of the land to provide essential ecosystem services.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUrban sprawl and industrial activities are identified as principal drivers of land degradation in Ibadan. The rapid urbanization in the area prompts the conversion of natural landscapes into urban environments, resulting in habitat destruction, increased surface runoff, and soil compaction (Johnson et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e; Adewale et al., 2021). The proliferation of impervious surfaces such as roads and buildings reduce groundwater recharge and heightens flooding risks, thereby exacerbating soil erosion and degradation (Seto et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR23\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2012\u003c/span\u003e). Furthermore, the prevalence of informal settlements often correlates with inadequate waste management systems, facilitating the unregulated disposal of solid waste and consequent soil contamination (Adelekan, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2010\u003c/span\u003e). Industrial activities invariably contribute to soil degradation through the discharge of pollutants, including heavy metals and organic compounds into the environment (Liu et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2014\u003c/span\u003e; Nwachukwu et al., 2016). These pollutants not only compromise land quality but also present serious health risks to the local populace (Oladele et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR19\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). Additionally, the extraction of natural resources for industrial purposes often culminates in deforestation and loss of vegetation cover, which further intensifies land degradation (Ayanlade et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR4\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eMoreover, the impacts of weather variability further aggravate the challenges associated with land degradation. Fluctuating rainfall patterns and rising temperatures significantly influence soil moisture, vegetative health, and overall land conditions (IPCC, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR13\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). An understanding of these weather dynamics is crucial for analyzing land degradation, as they elucidate the environmental factors that instigate degradation processes. Prolonged droughts may trigger desertification, while intense rainfall can lead to severe soil erosion (Feng \u0026amp; Liu, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e). In the context of Ibadan, an assessment of rainfall and temperature trends over the last decade is essential for determining the dynamics of land degradation and pinpointing at-risk areas. By integrating climatic data with vegetation cover indices, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), this research will uncover significant spatial and temporal patterns of degradation (Gao \u0026amp; Liu, 2011; Tucker, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR24\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e1979\u003c/span\u003e). Through this analysis, it becomes possible to identify hotspots of degradation and outline areas that require immediate intervention.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn Ibadan, the rapid increase in population and urban sprawl has exacerbated deforestation, resulting in considerable vegetation loss and adversely affecting the local weather while contributing to wider regional weather shifts (Ayanlade et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR4\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e). Urbanization and industrialization are other critical contributors to land degradation in rapidly expanding cities. The transition from natural landscapes to urban environments results in habitat destruction, increased surface runoff, and soil compaction (Seto et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR23\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2012\u003c/span\u003e). Additionally, industrial activities exacerbate the degradation process through pollution and soil contamination, threatening food security, water resources, and public health (Liu et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2014\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eUrban sprawl and industrial activities are identified as principal drivers of land degradation in Ibadan. The rapid urbanization in the area prompts the conversion of natural landscapes into urban environments, resulting in habitat destruction, increased surface runoff, and soil compaction (Johnson et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e; Adewale et al., 2021). The proliferation of impervious surfaces such as roads and buildings reduces groundwater recharge and heightens flooding risks, thereby exacerbating soil erosion and degradation (Seto et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR23\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2012\u003c/span\u003e). Furthermore, the prevalence of informal settlements often correlates with inadequate waste management systems, facilitating the unregulated disposal of solid waste and consequent soil contamination (Adelekan, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2010\u003c/span\u003e). Industrial activities invariably contribute to soil degradation through the discharge of pollutants, including heavy metals and organic compounds into the environment (Liu et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR16\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2014\u003c/span\u003e; Nwachukwu et al., 2016). These pollutants not only compromise land quality but also present serious health risks to the local populace (Oladele et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR19\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). Additionally, the extraction of natural resources for industrial purposes often culminates in deforestation and loss of vegetation cover, which further intensifies land degradation (Ayanlade et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR4\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e). Consequently, urbanization and industrialization together instigate considerable environmental transformations that diminish land quality in Ibadan.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThis study addresses a critical gap in updated data on land degradation, which is worsened by rapid urbanization, industrialization, and unsustainable land-use practices. Current research often does not integrate weather parameters and vegetation indices, highlighting the need for comprehensive assessments using advanced geospatial technologies. The primary aim is to evaluate land degradation in Ibadan, Nigeria, by analyzing rainfall, temperature, vegetation cover, and land use. Specific objectives include examining rainfall and temperature trends in Ibadan from 2013 to 2023, assessing spatiotemporal changes in vegetation cover for 2013, 2018, and 2023, identifying areas of degradation between 2013 and 2023, and exploring the relationship between land degradation and weather factors. This study operates on the hypothesis that no significant relationship exists between land degradation and climatic factors like rainfall and temperature. By synthesizing weather data with vegetation indices, the research seeks to provide insights for effective policy and management strategies aimed at combating land degradation and promoting sustainable development in the region. Ultimately, this analysis aims to deepen the understanding of land degradation dynamics and inform essential policy decisions for urban environments.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"2. Materials and Methods","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec3\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.1 Study area\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eIbadan, the capital city of Oyo State, Nigeria, stands as a vital urban center in the southwestern region of the country. It is situated at geographical coordinates of Latitude: 7.0\u0026deg; N to 8.0\u0026deg; N, Longitude: 3.0\u0026deg; E to 4.0\u0026deg; E (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e). The city is situated in a tropical wet and dry climate zone, defined by a distinct wet season from March to October and a dry season from November to February. The average annual temperature ranges between 25\u0026deg;C and 28\u0026deg;C, with average annual rainfall reaching approximately 1,200 mm. Nevertheless, climate change has introduced noticeable variations in these climatic patterns, including increased temperatures and altered rainfall regimes (Adebayo et al., 2017; Oguntunde et al., 2018). The natural vegetation, primarily tropical forest savanna, has significantly changed due to urbanization and agriculture, raising concerns about biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation (Adelekan, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2010\u003c/span\u003e). Rapid urbanization has led to extensive land use changes, with urban sprawl and industrial growth replacing agricultural land and green spaces, creating urban heat islands (Johnson et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR14\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e; Adewale et al., 2021). This expansion has negatively impacted local water bodies, leading to challenges in water quality and supply (Oladele et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR19\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eEconomically, Ibadan is a trade and manufacturing hub, highlighted by the Dugbe Market, and serves as a cultural center, housing the University of Ibadan and other educational institutions (Falola \u0026amp; Heaton, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR9\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2008\u003c/span\u003e). However, the city faces environmental issues like deforestation, waste management problems, and water pollution, further degrading vegetation and worsening climate change impacts (Adepoju et al., 2022; Nabegu, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR18\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2010\u003c/span\u003e). Despite these challenges, Ibadan retains considerable biodiversity in remnant forest patches and sacred groves, with Agodi Gardens providing crucial habitats (Adelekan, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR1\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2010\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec4\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.2 Data sources\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eTotal annual rainfall time series data between 2013 and 2023 was obtained from NASA POWER (Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources) project (\u003cspan class=\"ExternalRef\"\u003e\u003cspan class=\"RefSource\"\u003ehttps://power.larc.nasa.gov/\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan address=\"https://power.larc.nasa.gov/\" targettype=\"URL\" class=\"RefTarget\"\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003c/span\u003e\u003cspan type=\"Underline\" class=\"Underline\" name=\"Emphasis\"\u003e).\u003c/span\u003e Information on land surface temperature (LST), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and land use and land cover (LULC) pattern were derived from Landsat 8 satellite imagery for the periods 2013, 2018 and 2023, and processed on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. Landsat imagery provides a relatively high spatial resolution of 30 m which is ideal for mesoscale studies.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec5\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e2.3 Data processing\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe analysis for land use and land cover (LULC) classification in Ibadan utilized Landsat 8 imagery from 2013 and 2023 through Google Earth Engine (GEE). Initially, Landsat images were imported, with cloud masking applied to ensure accuracy by removing clouds and shadows. Radiometric and atmospheric corrections standardized reflectance values to ensure consistency over the years. Key spectral bands, including red, green, blue, near-infrared (NIR), and shortwave infrared (SWIR), were selected alongside various indices like NDVI and the Normalized Difference Built-Up Index (NDBI). These formed the basis for training supervised classification algorithms using manually selected sample points across different land cover types.Once the LULC classification was completed in GEE, the classified images for both years were exported to ArcMap for comprehensive analysis and visualization. In ArcMap, the final maps were enhanced for interpretability, using distinct color codes to represent various land cover classes, with post-classification refinement techniques applied to correct inaccuracies. By comparing LULC maps from 2013 and 2023, researchers identified significant land use trends, crucial for promoting sustainable management practices.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe study also included thorough data analysis, employing both statistical and GIS techniques. Preprocessing ensured data quality, involving the cleaning of NASA Power rainfall data and processing Landsat 8 imagery for Land Surface Temperature (LST), NDVI, and LULC classification. Trend analysis utilizing statistical tools in Excel helped uncover significant patterns, while correlation analysis explored relationships between weather variables and land degradation indicators using Pearson correlation coefficients computed through R programming. Additionally, GIS software such as ArcGIS and QGIS facilitated spatial and temporal analyses, highlighting interactions between variables. Ground truthing through field surveys further validated remote sensing results, ensuring the reliability of classifications and enabling a thorough understanding of land degradation in Ibadan. This comprehensive approach melded quantitative and qualitative methods, offering insights for targeted mitigation strategies against land degradation.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"3. Results","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec7\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.1 Spatiotemporal pattern of rainfall\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe spatial distribution of rainfall in Ibadan for 2013, shown in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig2\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e2\u003c/span\u003e, reveals significant precipitation variability across the region. Rainfall in the southern areas ranged between 1186 and 1228 mm, supporting local agriculture and water availability for domestic and agricultural purposes. In the northern and central parts, rainfall reached up to 1267 mm, promoting lush vegetation and enhanced agricultural productivity. This higher precipitation also contributes to groundwater recharge and supports the local hydrological cycle. However, the western regions experienced lower rainfall levels, ranging from 1054 to 1095 mm, indicating drier conditions. By 2018, the rainfall distribution pattern shifted, with the eastern and northeastern parts receiving up to 1314 mm of rainfall. This increase marked a notable change compared to 2013, while the central region experienced a decrease in rainfall levels. In 2023, a significant rise in rainfall in the western parts of Ibadan, reaching up to 1314 mm. In contrast, the northern and eastern areas recorded moderate rainfall levels. These varying precipitation patterns highlight the complex climatic variability across Ibadan over the study period.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe temporal trend of average annual rainfall in Ibadan from 2013 to 2023 is depicted in Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig3\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e3\u003c/span\u003e. The data shows significant fluctuations in annual rainfall, with noticeable peaks in 2014 and 2019. Despite these fluctuations, there is an overall increasing trend in rainfall over the decade. This increasing trend aligns with global observations of changing precipitation patterns due to climate change, which have been linked to rising temperatures and altered atmospheric circulation patterns (IPCC, 2021). The periods of higher rainfall, such as in 2014 and 2019, correlate with observed increases in vegetation growth, as more water availability supports plant health and growth. Conversely, years with lower rainfall may contribute to water stress and potential land degradation.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec8\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.2 Spatiotemporal pattern of land surface temperature\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe LST map for Ibadan in 2013 reveals considerable temperature variability, with the central and northeastern regions exhibiting high temperatures between 30.26 and 32.8\u0026deg;C (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e). These areas correspond to urban heat islands characterized by dense development and reduced vegetation. In contrast, the southwestern parts, marked in green, had lower temperatures ranging from 20.1 to 22.64\u0026deg;C due to dense vegetation and water bodies, which provide cooling effects through shading and evapotranspiration. By 2018, high-temperature zones expanded significantly, particularly in the central and eastern regions, with temperatures ranging from 31.89 to 33.97\u0026deg;C. Cooler regions persisted in areas with higher vegetation cover, maintaining temperatures between 23.09 and 25.98\u0026deg;C.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn 2023, the northeastern and central regions experienced further temperature increases, with some areas reaching 36.20\u0026deg;C. These rising temperatures indicate the continued impact of urban expansion and the decline in vegetation cover. Figure\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig5\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e5\u003c/span\u003e highlights the temporal pattern of average annual LST in Ibadan from 2013 to 2023, showing a steady increase from approximately 28\u0026deg;C in 2013 to 29\u0026deg;C in 2023, with peaks in 2020 and 2021 likely linked to urban growth and vegetation loss.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec9\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.3 Spatiotemporal pattern of vegetation health\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe NDVI analysis for Ibadan reveals a decline in vegetation health over the period from 2013 to 2023, highlighting the effects of urbanization and land use changes. In 2013, NDVI values ranged from \u0026minus;\u0026thinsp;0.01 to 0.74 (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig10\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e10\u003c/span\u003e). Sparse vegetation and degraded lands were represented by lower NDVI values (-0.01 to 0.14), predominantly located in urban centers such as Ibadan North, Ibadan North-East, and Ibadan South-West. Conversely, peripheral and rural areas like Ido, Oluyole, Egbeda, and Lagelu showed higher NDVI values (0.59 to 0.74), reflecting denser vegetation cover.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBy 2018, NDVI values declined to a range of -0.11 to 0.70 (Fig.\u0026nbsp;11). Urban areas continued to expand, with a noticeable increase in regions with lower NDVI values, indicating ongoing urbanization and vegetation loss. Rural areas maintained relatively higher NDVI values but showed initial signs of degradation in some locations due to suburban expansion and agricultural activities.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn 2023, NDVI values further decreased, with maximum values dropping to 0.57 (Fig.\u0026nbsp;12). Areas with sparse vegetation significantly increased, while regions with dense vegetation diminished, reflecting continued urban sprawl and infrastructure development. Urban cores such as Ibadan North, Ibadan North-East, and Ibadan South-West exhibited consistently low NDVI values throughout the decade, while suburban areas like Ido, Egbeda, and Lagelu showed a reduction in vegetation cover. Peripheral and rural areas, including Oluyole and Ona-Ara, experienced a noticeable decline in dense vegetation cover, linked to agricultural expansion and changing land use practices.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec10\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e3.4 Pattern of Land use changes and land degradation\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn 2013, vegetation dominated the landscape, particularly in peripheral and rural areas such as Ido, Oluyole, and Ona-Ara, which exhibited extensive green cover. Built-up areas were primarily concentrated in central Ibadan, including Ibadan North, Ibadan North-East, and Ibadan South-West, with limited encroachment into vegetated zones (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig7\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e7\u003c/span\u003e). Bare land was minimal, signifying a relatively stable environment with low levels of degradation.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBy 2023, a notable increase in bare land and built-up areas was observed, especially in central and eastern Ibadan. Vegetation in peripheral areas diminished significantly, marking a shift from vegetated landscapes to urbanized and degraded lands. Key transitions included an increase of approximately 1,387.23 km\u0026sup2; from vegetation to built-up areas and 400.57 km\u0026sup2; from vegetation to bare land (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig8\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e8\u003c/span\u003e). The classification achieved a high overall accuracy of 95%, underscoring the reliability of these findings.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn Figs.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig9\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e9\u003c/span\u003e and \u003cspan refid=\"Fig10\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e10\u003c/span\u003e, the increase in bare land and built-up areas in Ibadan between 2013 and 2023 is indicative of the challenges posed by rapid urbanization. As more land is cleared for development, the natural landscape is altered, reducing the amount of vegetation and leading to several environmental issues. Deforestation, a major consequence of this process, not only destroys habitats for local flora and fauna but also disrupts the ecological balance. The reduction in green areas means fewer trees and plants to absorb carbon dioxide, which can contribute to increased atmospheric carbon levels and exacerbate climate change.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eStatistical correlations among variables indicated significant environmental interactions (Table\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Tab1\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e1\u003c/span\u003e). A strong negative correlation between Land Surface Temperature (LST) and NDVI (r = -0.39***) revealed the detrimental impact of elevated temperatures on vegetation health. Similarly, LST negatively correlated with rainfall (r = -0.23**), highlighting the role of reduced precipitation in exacerbating soil moisture stress and degradation. The negative correlation between LULC changes and NDVI (r = -0.42***) further demonstrated the adverse effects of urban expansion on vegetation cover.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"gridtable\"\u003e\u003ctable float=\"Yes\" id=\"Tab1\" border=\"1\"\u003e \u003ccaption language=\"En\"\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionNumber\"\u003eTable 1\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv class=\"CaptionContent\"\u003e \u003cp\u003ePearson\u0026rsquo;s correlation coefficients of the selected variables\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003c/caption\u003e \u003ccolgroup cols=\"5\"\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c1\" colnum=\"1\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c2\" colnum=\"2\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c3\" colnum=\"3\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c4\" colnum=\"4\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv align=\"left\" class=\"colspec\" colname=\"c5\" colnum=\"5\"\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003cthead\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e\u0026nbsp;\u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eLST\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eLULC\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eRAINFALL\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003cth align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003eNDVI\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/th\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/thead\u003e \u003ctbody\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eLST\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.07\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e-0.23**\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e-0.39***\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eLULC\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.07\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.11\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e-0.42***\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eRAINFALL\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e-0.23**\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.11\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.06\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003ctr\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c1\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e\u003cb\u003eNDVI\u003c/b\u003e\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c2\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e-0.39***\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c3\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e-0.42***\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c4\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e0.06\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003ctd align=\"left\" colname=\"c5\"\u003e \u003cp\u003e1\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/td\u003e \u003c/tr\u003e \u003c/tbody\u003e \u003c/colgroup\u003e \u003c/table\u003e\u003c/div\u003e \u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"4. Discussion","content":"\u003cdiv id=\"Sec12\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.1 Rainfall variability and impacts (2013\u0026ndash;2023)\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eRainfall distribution in Ibadan demonstrates significant variability across spatial and temporal scales, with notable implications for agriculture, water resources, and ecosystem health. In 2013, moderate rainfall in the southern regions (1186 to 1228 mm) supported agriculture and maintained ecological balance (Olaniran et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR20\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e). Northern and central areas experienced higher rainfall (up to 1267 mm), benefiting groundwater recharge and vegetation growth, critical for sustaining the hydrological cycle (Ajayi et al., 2019). However, western regions faced challenges from lower precipitation levels (1054 to 1095 mm), which exacerbated soil erosion risks and reduced soil fertility. Strategies such as rainwater harvesting and irrigation advancements are essential for these areas (Adeyemi et al., 2018).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eBy 2018, shifts in rainfall patterns suggested climatic influences. Increased precipitation in the eastern and northeastern parts (up to 1314 mm) pointed to changing atmospheric dynamics (Olaniyan et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR21\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e), while reduced rainfall in central areas highlighted the impact of urbanisation on the hydrological cycle, affecting water availability and ecosystem health. In 2023, a notable rise in rainfall in the western parts (up to 1314 mm) presented both opportunities for agriculture and food security and challenges like flooding and soil erosion, necessitating enhanced drainage systems (Balogun et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR6\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). Conversely, northern and eastern areas with moderate rainfall required water conservation measures and sustainable agricultural practices to address lower precipitation levels.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThese patterns align with broader climatic changes observed in Nigeria, linked to global dynamics such as increasing rainfall variability in urban centers like Ibadan (Ghalhari et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e; Ifabiyi \u0026amp; Ojoye, 2013). While higher precipitation improves water availability for agriculture and reforestation, it raises concerns about urban flooding, especially where drainage systems are inadequate (Odjugo, 2010). To address these challenges, integrating geospatial technologies and machine learning for real-time monitoring can enhance disaster preparedness and infrastructure resilience. Policymakers must incorporate climatic data into urban planning to build adaptive capacities aligned with global sustainable development goals (Oyekale, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR22\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e \u003cdiv id=\"Sec13\" class=\"Section2\"\u003e \u003ch2\u003e4.2 Temperature, NDVI, and land degradation\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe observed LST variation highlights the impact of urbanization on local climate (Fig.\u0026nbsp;\u003cspan refid=\"Fig4\" class=\"InternalRef\"\u003e4\u003c/span\u003e). Urban areas exhibit high temperatures due to heat absorption and retention by impervious surfaces like asphalt and concrete, exacerbating the urban heat island effect (Ghalhari et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR10\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2022\u003c/span\u003e). Reduced vegetation cover further diminishes cooling effects through shading and evapotranspiration (Odjugo, 2010). By 2018, expanded high-temperature zones reflected intensified urbanization and deforestation, aligning with findings by Ifabiyi and Ojoye (2013), which established a direct link between vegetation loss and heat retention. Cooler zones with vegetation and water bodies underscore the importance of green infrastructure in temperature moderation.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eIn 2023, central and northeastern regions experienced LST peaks of up to 36.20\u0026deg;C, reflecting ongoing urbanization and reduced vegetation (Akbari et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR5\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2001\u003c/span\u003e). Rising temperatures impose challenges such as increased energy demands for cooling, heat stress, and infrastructure damage (Santamouris, 2015). Vulnerable populations, including children and the elderly, are particularly at risk (Harlan et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR12\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2006\u003c/span\u003e). This warming trend corresponds with global patterns of urban heat island intensification, as documented by Oke (1982), and the adverse impacts of urban expansion and vegetation loss. Urban green spaces are critical for mitigating these effects, providing ecosystem services like cooling, air quality improvement, and biodiversity support (Bowler et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR7\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2010\u003c/span\u003e; Gill et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR11\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2007\u003c/span\u003e).\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eDeclining NDVI values from 2013 to 2023 further illustrate the environmental costs of urbanization in Ibadan. Persistent low NDVI values in urban cores and declining vegetation in suburban areas such as Ido, Egbeda, and Lagelu reflect suburban sprawl and agricultural expansion (Adepoju, Millington, \u0026amp; Tansey, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR3\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2016\u003c/span\u003e). The loss of dense vegetation in peripheral regions such as Oluyole and Ona-Ara underscores the pressures of deforestation, agricultural expansion, and climate variability. These findings corroborate Owolabi et al. (2019), who observed similar trends in other Nigerian cities.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eThe observed correlations between LST, rainfall, and NDVI emphasize the interplay of climatic and anthropogenic factors in driving land degradation. Rising temperatures and reduced vegetation affect ecosystems by lowering carbon sequestration, increasing soil erosion, and exacerbating biodiversity loss (Ayanlade et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR4\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2020\u003c/span\u003e; Feng \u0026amp; Liu, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR8\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2015\u003c/span\u003e). Addressing these challenges requires sustainable urban planning that balances infrastructure development with environmental conservation (Seto et al., \u003cspan citationid=\"CR23\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2012\u003c/span\u003e; Mutanga \u0026amp; Kumar, \u003cspan citationid=\"CR17\" class=\"CitationRef\"\u003e2019\u003c/span\u003e). Remote sensing tools like NDVI provide invaluable insights for monitoring vegetation changes and supporting informed decision-making to promote resilience in the rapidly transforming landscapes of Ibadan.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/div\u003e"},{"header":"5. Conclusion","content":"\u003cp\u003eLand degradation presents a critical environmental challenge with significant repercussions for ecosystems, agriculture, and human livelihoods worldwide. In urban areas such as Ibadan, Nigeria, the interplay of natural and anthropogenic factors amplifies these concerns. This study highlights the patterns and extent of land degradation in Ibadan over the past decade, revealing that deforestation and vegetation loss have escalated due to rapid population growth and urban sprawl. Additionally, desertification, primarily driven by unsustainable land use practices, alongside urbanization and industrialization, contributes to habitat destruction, pollution, and soil degradation. The impact of climate change further complicates these issues, affecting soil moisture and vegetation growth. Overall, the research emphasizes the urgent need for sustainable urban planning and effective environmental management strategies to mitigate land degradation and enhance resilience in Ibadan.\u003c/p\u003e \u003cp\u003eTo effectively combat land degradation in Ibadan, comprehensive and integrative policy frameworks must be established. Urban planning should prioritize the preservation of green spaces by creating urban green belts, parks, and implementing green roofs and vertical gardens in new developments. Development regulations should emphasize controlling urban sprawl by encouraging vertical growth instead of horizontal expansion to protect surrounding agricultural and natural landscapes. Moreover, revising zoning laws to mandate green infrastructure can alleviate the urban heat island effect and improve air quality. The policies should also promote the use of sustainable building materials to reduce heat absorption.\u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"Declarations","content":"\u003cp\u003e \u003ch2\u003eConflict of Interest Statement:\u003c/h2\u003e \u003cp\u003eNo conflict of Interest in the production of this manuscript.\u003c/p\u003e \u003c/p\u003e"},{"header":"References","content":"\u003col\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAdelekan, I. (2010). 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Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools. \u003cem\u003eProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences\u003c/em\u003e, 109(40), 16083-16088. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1211658109\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eTucker, C. J. (1979). Red and near-infrared linear combinations for monitoring vegetation. \u003cem\u003eRemote Sensing of Environment\u003c/em\u003e, 8(2), 127-150. https://doi.org/10.1016/0034-4257(79)90013-0\u003c/li\u003e\n\u003c/ol\u003e"}],"fulltextSource":"","fullText":"","funders":[],"hasAdminPriorityOnWorkflow":false,"hasManuscriptDocX":true,"hasOptedInToPreprint":true,"hasPassedJournalQc":"","hasAnyPriority":false,"hideJournal":true,"highlight":"","institution":"","isAcceptedByJournal":false,"isAuthorSuppliedPdf":false,"isDeskRejected":"","isHiddenFromSearch":false,"isInQc":false,"isInWorkflow":false,"isPdf":false,"isPdfUpToDate":true,"isWithdrawnOrRetracted":false,"journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true},"keywords":"Ecosystem, Google Earth Engine (GEE), Land cover, Vegetation health, Land Surface Temperature (LST)","lastPublishedDoi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5548430/v1","lastPublishedDoiUrl":"https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-5548430/v1","license":{"name":"CC BY 4.0","url":"https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"},"manuscriptAbstract":"\u003cp\u003eLand degradation remains a significant global challenge, affecting ecosystems, agriculture, and human livelihoods. This study employed remote sensing technology to investigate vegetation patterns and trends in rainfall and temperature in Ibadan, Nigeria, from 2013 to 2023, with a focus on their impact on land degradation. The objectives were to assess spatiotemporal changes in vegetation cover, temperature, and rainfall distribution; identify areas affected by land degradation; and evaluate the influence of weather variables on vegetation dynamics. Data from NASA Power and the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET) were combined with Landsat 8 imagery processed using Google Earth Engine (GEE). The analysis revealed substantial rainfall variability across Ibadan, with higher levels in the northern and central regions affecting vegetation health, as reflected by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). Land surface temperature (LST) analysis indicated a moderate negative correlation with NDVI (r = -0.39), demonstrating that rising temperatures adversely impact vegetation health. Additionally, a weak positive correlation (r\u0026thinsp;=\u0026thinsp;0.11) between land use and land cover (LULC) and rainfall highlighted the role of urbanisation in shaping temperature and precipitation patterns. The findings underscore the importance of sustainable urban planning and land management strategies, including green infrastructure and eco-friendly building practices, to mitigate the effects of weather variability on vegetation and land degradation.\u003c/p\u003e","manuscriptTitle":"Assessing the variability effect of land use patterns, rainfall and temperature trends on land degradation across Ibadan, Nigeria","msid":"","msnumber":"","nonDraftVersions":[{"code":1,"date":"2024-12-18 11:18:52","doi":"10.21203/rs.3.rs-5548430/v1","editorialEvents":[{"type":"communityComments","content":0}],"status":"published","journal":{"display":true,"email":"[email protected]","identity":"researchsquare","isNatureJournal":false,"hasQc":true,"allowDirectSubmit":true,"externalIdentity":"","sideBox":"","snPcode":"","submissionUrl":"/submission","title":"Research Square","twitterHandle":"researchsquare","acdcEnabled":true,"dfaEnabled":false,"editorialSystem":"","reportingPortfolio":"","inReviewEnabled":false,"inReviewRevisionsEnabled":true}}],"origin":"","ownerIdentity":"4485f29b-71db-4efe-854a-c2d58944fd46","owner":[],"postedDate":"December 18th, 2024","published":true,"recentEditorialEvents":[],"rejectedJournal":[],"revision":"","amendment":"","status":"posted","subjectAreas":[],"tags":[],"updatedAt":"2025-01-22T17:47:11+00:00","versionOfRecord":[],"versionCreatedAt":"2024-12-18 11:18:52","video":"","vorDoi":"","vorDoiUrl":"","workflowStages":[]},"version":"v1","identity":"rs-5548430","journalConfig":"researchsquare"},"__N_SSP":true},"page":"/article/[identity]/[[...version]]","query":{"redirect":"/article/rs-5548430","identity":"rs-5548430","version":["v1"]},"buildId":"WrCJVZZCHTDjtuVLN7oU0","isFallback":false,"isExperimentalCompile":false,"dynamicIds":[84888],"gssp":true,"scriptLoader":[]}