A general relationship between population size and extinction risk

A general relationship between population size and extinction risk | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Biological Sciences - Article A general relationship between population size and extinction risk Thomas Ball, Ben Balmford, Andrew Balmford, Daniele Rinaldo, Piero Visconti, and 1 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5528160/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Understanding the relationship between a population’s probability of extinction and its carrying capacity is key in assessing conservation status, and critical to efforts to understand and mitigate the ongoing biodiversity crisis. Despite this, there has been limited research into the form of this relationship. We conducted around five billion population viability assessments which reveal that the relationship is a modified Gompertz curve. This finding is consistent across around 1700 individual model populations which represent different breeding systems and widely varying rates of population growth, levels of environmental stochasticity, adult survival rate, age at first breeding, and starting population size. Applying analytical methods to equations describing population dynamics showed that minimal assumptions were required to prove this is a general relationship which holds for any extant population subject to density-dependent growth. Finally, we discuss the implications of these findings and consider the practical use of our results by conservationists. Biological sciences/Ecology/Population dynamics Earth and environmental sciences/Ecology/Conservation biology Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Supplementary Files curvepaperSOM241126.docx Supplementary Information curvepaperSOM241212.docx Supplementary Appendix A datafitsfixedN0.csv Data fits fixed N0 datafitsA.csv Data fits A datafitsB.csv Data fits B datafitsC.csv Data fits C datafitsD.csv Data fits D datafitspropN0.csv Data fits proportional N0 Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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