Operational Limitations of Volcanic Eruption Plume Models with a Water-Phase Transition

Operational Limitations of Volcanic Eruption Plume Models with a Water-Phase Transition | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Research Article Operational Limitations of Volcanic Eruption Plume Models with a Water-Phase Transition Kensuke Ishii This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7611615/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted 5 You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract To apply an eruption plume model with a water-phase transition to an operational environment, we conduct an endurance test for the plume model NIKS-1D extended to include a water-phase transition (vapor, liquid, ice). The test is conducted for 28,125 synthetic eruption scenarios for 77 years of daily meteorological reanalysis for Aso volcano in Japan. Latent heat released during condensation and freezing enhances plume heights, in particular, this effect is significant for intermediate-strength eruptions (3×10⁵–10⁷ kg/s) with plumes reaching the upper troposphere. This characteristic imposes certain limitations on applying a plume model with a water-phase transition in operational environments; for plume heights of 8–15 km, corresponding to the above mass eruption rates, mass eruption rates to reproduce observed plume heights cannot always be estimated due to a discontinuity in the relationship between the mass eruption rate and plume height. Such inconsistency between the estimation and observation indicates that using a plume model with a water-phase transition in operational environments can lead to released ash profiles that deviate from reality, resulting in inaccurate ash dispersal prediction. These results highlight both the advantages and limitations of plume modeling including a water-phase transitions in operational environments. volcanic eruption plume plume model water phase transition Full Text Supplementary Files GraphicalAbstract.png Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted Editorial decision: Major Revision 23 Dec, 2025 Reviewers agreed at journal 16 Oct, 2025 Reviewers invited by journal 12 Oct, 2025 Editor assigned by journal 21 Sep, 2025 First submitted to journal 15 Sep, 2025 You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-7611615","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Research Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":528493882,"identity":"01c1f8d7-e72b-4572-992d-38f7fd504def","order_by":0,"name":"Kensuke 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