Earlier planting in a future climate fails to replicate historical production conditions for US spring wheat.

Earlier planting in a future climate fails to replicate historical production conditions for US spring wheat. | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Earlier planting in a future climate fails to replicate historical production conditions for US spring wheat. Supriya Savalkar, Michael Pumphrey, Kimberly Campbell, Fabio Scarpare, and 4 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4940971/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Published Journal Publication published 27 Aug, 2025 Read the published version in Communications Earth & Environment → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Global warming can increase crop heat stress exposure, adversely affecting crop yields and quality. Earlier planting is widely considered in climate change literature as a potential adaptation strategy by shifting the growing season to cooler periods. However, the effectiveness of earlier planting in achieving overall temperature exposures during the crop growth season that are at least as favorable as historical conditions remains unclear. Our objective is to comprehensively assess the potential effectiveness of earlier planting as an adaptation strategy by addressing two key questions: How effective is earlier planting in reducing exposure to excessively high temperatures across different growth stages? What are the associated tradeoffs in temperature exposure, and can historical conditions be matched with this adaptation strategy? We focus on major US spring wheat growing states as a case study, analyzing lethal, critical, suboptimal, and optimal temperature thresholds by growth stage to quantify the impact of earlier planting. Our findings indicate that while earlier planting does reduce exposure to critical and lethal high-temperature categories during some reproductive stages, it generally fails to replicate historical production conditions for the majority of the US spring wheat production region (contributing 85% of the current production). This trend persists across all future time frames and emission scenarios. The Pacific Northwest US presents an exception; however, even in this region, certain early and late growth stages may experience worse-than-historical conditions requiring management. The planting window with historically equivalent temperature exposures also narrows from 11 weeks to 1-7 weeks, presenting additional logistical challenges. Given that the Pacific Northwest US accounts for less than 15% of the national spring wheat production, at a national scale, current production levels are unlikely to be sustained by primarily relying on earlier planting as an adaptation strategy. This is a critical consideration, especially given that many climate change assessments frequently list earlier planting as an effective adaptation strategy without the capacity to fully explore its tradeoffs. Exploring additional adaptation strategies to maintain current national production levels is important. Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change Earth and environmental sciences/Environmental social sciences/Climate-change adaptation Earlier planting spring wheat phenological stages and temperature exposure tradeoffs of earlier planting climate change impacts heat stress adaptation strategies Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Published Journal Publication published 27 Aug, 2025 Read the published version in Communications Earth & Environment → Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. 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Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-4940971","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":344211739,"identity":"dbc7249b-bb27-4547-98f7-5978967400d5","order_by":0,"name":"Supriya 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Earlier planting is widely considered in climate change literature as a potential adaptation strategy by shifting the growing season to cooler periods. However, the effectiveness of earlier planting in achieving overall temperature exposures during the crop growth season that are at least as favorable as historical conditions remains unclear. Our objective is to comprehensively assess the potential effectiveness of earlier planting as an adaptation strategy by addressing two key questions: How effective is earlier planting in reducing exposure to excessively high temperatures across different growth stages? What are the associated tradeoffs in temperature exposure, and can historical conditions be matched with this adaptation strategy? We focus on major US spring wheat growing states as a case study, analyzing lethal, critical, suboptimal, and optimal temperature thresholds by growth stage to quantify the impact of earlier planting. Our findings indicate that while earlier planting does reduce exposure to critical and lethal high-temperature categories during some reproductive stages, it generally fails to replicate historical production conditions for the majority of the US spring wheat production region (contributing 85% of the current production). This trend persists across all future time frames and emission scenarios. The Pacific Northwest US presents an exception; however, even in this region, certain early and late growth stages may experience worse-than-historical conditions requiring management. The planting window with historically equivalent temperature exposures also narrows from 11 weeks to 1-7 weeks, presenting additional logistical challenges. Given that the Pacific Northwest US accounts for less than 15% of the national spring wheat production, at a national scale, current production levels are unlikely to be sustained by primarily relying on earlier planting as an adaptation strategy. This is a critical consideration, especially given that many climate change assessments frequently list earlier planting as an effective adaptation strategy without the capacity to fully explore its tradeoffs. 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