Lockdown, relaxation, and ACME period in COVID-19: A study of disease dynamics in Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico

Lockdown and social distancing measures have been implemented for many countries to mitigate the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and prevent overwhelming of health services. However, success on this strategy depends not only on the timing of its implementation, but also on the relaxation measures adopted within each community. We developed a mathematical model to evaluate the impacts of the lockdown implemented in Hermosillo, Mexico. We compared this intervention with some hypothetical ones, varying the starting date and also the population proportion that is released, breaking the confinement. A Monte Carlo study was performed by considering three scenarios to define our baseline dynamics. Results showed that a hypothetical delay of two weeks, on the lockdown measures, would result in an early ACME around May 9 for hospitalization prevalence and an increase on cumulative deaths, 42 times higher by May 31, when compared to baseline. On the other hand, results concerning relaxation dynamics showed that the ACME levels depend on the proportion of people who gets back to daily activities as well as the individual behavior with respect to prevention measures. Analysis regarding different relaxing mitigation measures were provided to the Sonoran Health Ministry, as requested. It is important to stress that, according to information provided by health authorities, the ACME occurring time was closed to the one given by our model. Hence, we considered that our model resulted useful for the decision-making assessment, and that an extension of it can be used for the study of a potential second wave.