Early warning system predicts exposure to extreme temperatures in 2024

Early warning system predicts exposure to extreme temperatures in 2024 | Research Square window.SnipcartSettings = { analytics: { enabled: false } }; (function() { var accessVector = localStorage.getItem('access_vector') || ''; window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || []; if (accessVector) { window.dataLayer.push({ user: { profile: { profileInfo: { snid: accessVector } } } }); } })(); (function(w,d,s,l,i){w[l]=w[l]||[];w[l].push({'gtm.start':new Date().getTime(),event:'gtm.js'});var f=d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0],j=d.createElement(s),dl=l!='dataLayer'?'&l='+l:'';j.async=true;j.src='https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtm.js?id='+i+dl;f.parentNode.insertBefore(j,f);})(window,document,'script','dataLayer','GTM-K279D39R'); Browse Preprints In Review Journals COVID-19 Preprints AJE Video Bytes Research Tools Research Promotion AJE Professional Editing AJE Rubriq About Preprint Platform In Review Editorial Policies Our Team Advisory Board Help Center Sign In Submit a Preprint Cite Share Download PDF Article Early warning system predicts exposure to extreme temperatures in 2024 Josep Serra-Diaz, Lauren Andrews, Ben Carlson, Gonzalo E Pinilla-Buitrago, and 7 more This is a preprint; it has not been peer reviewed by a journal. https://doi.org/ 10.21203/rs.3.rs-6838011/v1 This work is licensed under a CC BY 4.0 License Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Abstract Effective biodiversity conservation during periods of rapid environmental change requires identifying the species and regions at greatest risk. However, most predictions focus on biodiversity shifts several decades ahead, offering limited guidance for immediate conservation action. Here, we develop an early warning system for biodiversity based on 9-month seasonal weather forecasts combined with species-specific historical temperature limits. In May 2024, we predicted that >3,500 vertebrate species (out of 30,585 species), including >1,250 species of conservation concern, would be substantially exposed to extreme temperatures 1-2 months in advance. Mexico, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Himalayas were predicted to face the highest threats during this forecast period. Early evidence suggests that these regions negatively impact species populations. Such advance notice enables rapid actions to monitor and mitigate these extreme events for sensitive species and regions. Biological sciences/Ecology/Biodiversity Earth and environmental sciences/Climate sciences/Climate change/Projection and prediction Full Text Additional Declarations There is NO Competing Interest. Cite Share Download PDF Status: Under Review Version 1 posted You are reading this latest preprint version Research Square lets you share your work early, gain feedback from the community, and start making changes to your manuscript prior to peer review in a journal. As a division of Research Square Company, we’re committed to making research communication faster, fairer, and more useful. We do this by developing innovative software and high quality services for the global research community. Our growing team is made up of researchers and industry professionals working together to solve the most critical problems facing scientific publishing. Also discoverable on Platform About Our Team In Review Editorial Policies Advisory Board Help Center Resources Author Services Accessibility API Access RSS feed Manage Cookie Preferences © Research Square 2026 | ISSN 2693-5015 (online) Privacy Policy Terms of Service Do Not Sell My Personal Information {"props":{"pageProps":{"initialData":{"identity":"rs-6838011","acceptedTermsAndConditions":true,"allowDirectSubmit":false,"archivedVersions":[],"articleType":"Article","associatedPublications":[],"authors":[{"id":504713232,"identity":"b674676b-7320-4320-a397-a7509d598847","order_by":0,"name":"Josep 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However, most predictions focus on biodiversity shifts several decades ahead, offering limited guidance for immediate conservation action. Here, we develop an early warning system for biodiversity based on 9-month seasonal weather forecasts combined with species-specific historical temperature limits. In May 2024, we predicted that \u003e3,500 vertebrate species (out of 30,585 species), including \u003e1,250 species of conservation concern, would be substantially exposed to extreme temperatures 1-2 months in advance. Mexico, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Himalayas were predicted to face the highest threats during this forecast period. Early evidence suggests that these regions negatively impact species populations. 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